Iowa's defense is typically stingy, but appears stronger against the run than against the pass. In its losses, Iowa has given up 200+ yards passing (as well as a couple of its wins, including Washington and Minnesota). Curiously, Ohio State is on the low end of that (barely clearing 200), but both Iowa State and Michigan State put up 250+ yards of passing. Does Locke have it in him?
Michigan State and Ohio State also ran effectively against Iowa, both clearing 200 yards, both by committee. In Iowa's other loss, to Iowa State, they stoned the running game (and in their wins). Iowa imploded with three second-half turnovers against OSU, but that wasn't an issue with MSU (1 int, but the MSU loss wasn't close to a 1-score game). Iowa's loss to Iowa State included two INTs, but McNamara won't play against the Badgers, so who knows what to expect in the passing game. With a backup quarterback, and an opposing team that doesn't grind the clock, if I'm Iowa, I want to stuff the ball down Wisconsin's throat and win TOP. We all know that late in the game Wisconsin's defense is often gassed--if Iowa can keep pounding away at it, that seems like a recipe for an Iowa win.
Iowa also causes turnovers, including interceptions--even in the games they lose. Can Locke limit himself to one, not back-breaking, interception? If so, and he can get Pauling open in the slot, he's certainly capable of putting up yards on the Iowa defense. But he's also perfectly capable of throwing 4 picks in a game. We'll see. But to be able to get the running game going, Wisconsin will have to be able to hurt Iowa through the air.
It will be a risk/reward kind of game. If Locke limits his mistakes, the Badgers should have a good shot at this, but Wisconsin can't win this game by handing the ball to Walker and Yacamelli--nor is their team designed to do that really against any team, but especially against the Hawkeyes.
So I see Iowa turning to the same old Big Ten playbook--keep the ball in front of it, and grind away at Wisconsin; try to win a classic 20 to 13-ish brawl. For the Badgers, I respectfully disagree with Badge: they have to be able to open the field with the passing game, but we all know the risk that comes with. I don't see Locke getting out of this game without an INT, but if he can do what other winning QBs have done against Iowa: 250+ yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, I can see Wisconsin putting up enough points to get by an Iowa squad that won't likely light up the scoreboard...unless Locke is throwing them the ball.
I think the Badgers need at least 24 to win this one. If they get to 28, they will win. It will all depend on how many picks Locke throws.
