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Topic: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #56 on: February 08, 2020, 09:54:09 AM »
It's certainly worth study before we can proclaim anything with any confidence.  
.
We're definitely hand-cuffed by the limited statistics available.  Turnovers per possession would be a useful defensive stat.  As would the type-of-turnover breakdown I posted previously.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #57 on: February 08, 2020, 12:30:35 PM »
Random turnovers are random, by definition.  And they do happen, randomly.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2020, 03:31:44 PM »
So do random posts....thanks for contributing.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #59 on: February 09, 2020, 09:48:55 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 07, 2020, 12:45:46 PM
Yes, there is a baseline of player turnover, but programs that have an inordinate number of players leaving early are going to have the highest turnover.
Why would that affect turnovers so much more than other things?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #60 on: February 10, 2020, 11:59:00 AM »
Because we don't know what % of forced turnovers might be personnel and what % might be scheme.  It's obviously both, but if you have certain players who have an inclination for popping that ball out or undercutting routes or something, you'd have the same scheme the following year, but a player that lacks that inclination.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #61 on: February 10, 2020, 04:14:43 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 10, 2020, 11:59:00 AM
Because we don't know what % of forced turnovers might be personnel and what % might be scheme.  It's obviously both, but if you have certain players who have an inclination for popping that ball out or undercutting routes or something, you'd have the same scheme the following year, but a player that lacks that inclination.

So the hypothesis is that turnover forcing is either a developed skill or something innate that fluctuates with turnover in a way that other elements of defense do not?

Seems like an idea, but very much a guess.

Interestingly Bama’s defense slipped in points per drive from last season, but had a very nice jump in percentage of drives on which it forced turnovers. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #62 on: February 10, 2020, 06:33:43 PM »
Other elements of defense are going to fluctuate with player turnover as well.  But that's why DCs get paid, isn't it?  We lose a top-notch CB early to the draft, but our pass D remains strong because we funnel things towards our talented safety while our new CB gets his feet wet, etc.
.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2020, 12:08:05 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 10, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
Other elements of defense are going to fluctuate with player turnover as well.  But that's why DCs get paid, isn't it?  We lose a top-notch CB early to the draft, but our pass D remains strong because we funnel things towards our talented safety while our new CB gets his feet wet, etc.
.

But that wouldn't impact turnovers?

Again, this all seems like a somewhat interesting idea, but not one with much grounding, I think.
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FearlessF

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2020, 11:01:20 AM »
some DCs spend more time on creating turnovers than others

doesn't necessarily improve the number of turnovers
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #65 on: February 12, 2020, 07:35:05 PM »
Right, but what if it could?  With all the statisitcal inefficiencies out there in sports, this has got to be a major one of them.  If a team were to carefully maintain records on this and make it a priority, I'll bet you a dollar it would make a difference.
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FearlessF

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #66 on: February 12, 2020, 07:46:40 PM »
Riley and Frost and their multiple D coordinators have told the press that it is a high priority and they will get it done

no results
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #67 on: February 12, 2020, 09:40:49 PM »
I doubt they have the level of player needed to yield the few that 'just happen' to cause turnovers.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #68 on: February 12, 2020, 09:53:57 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 12, 2020, 09:40:49 PM
I doubt they have the level of player needed to yield the few that 'just happen' to cause turnovers. 
Yes they do/did. They recruited well. Still do.
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FearlessF

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Re: Will the CFP Committee be influenced by past year results?
« Reply #69 on: February 12, 2020, 10:09:35 PM »
someday, hopefully soon, the Huskers will get a bunch of turnovers

some coaches and/or players will take some level of credit

I'm not sure it won't be more luck and randomness than anything
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