Michigan has a tough schedule at the top but after that it drops off. This is my projected order of toughest games taking into account not only projected strength of opponent but also chronology and location:
- vs #4 Texas. I have this one at #1 because it is so early. Even if Michigan ends up being great, this could be a struggle with so many replacements.
- at #2 Ohio State. On the road and against #2.
- vs #3 Oregon.
- at Washington. Michigan (like pretty much all Big11Ten teams has tended to struggle on the West Coast).
- vs #23 USC.
- vs Fresno State. There are probably better teams below this, but this one is in week #1.
- at Illinois.
- vs Michigan State.
- at Indiana.
- vs Minnesota.
- vs Northwestern
- vs Arkansas State.
11-1 on this schedule would be incredible. They'd either have to:
- Go 2-1 against Texas, Oregon, and at Ohio State AND have zero upsets, or
- Sweep Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State and have an off-day loss to someone else.
Either way, that would be a great accomplishment.
I feel like 7-5 would be a near-disaster with this schedule. Losses to the three top-4 teams would obviously be understandable but if they also lost to Washington and USC their best win would be . . . Fresno? Illinois?
Note that this issue isn't specific to just Michigan, it is more of a conference-wide thing. Ohio State similarly has three really tough games (@#3 Oregon, @#8PSU, vs#9M) but if they lost those three and went 9-3 their best wins would be . . . home games against #25 Iowa and UNL?
Not saying I think they're going 11-1. I said I think that would be their ceiling. There's zero shot they are going 3-0 in their big games and I'd almost guarantee Ohio State to be a loss. There is just too much at stake for Ryan Day in that game, he's going to be as motivated as any coach ever to get a W in that one. I think Chip Kelly was a home run OC hire, that roster is loaded with talent and experience,
and it's a home game. That's a loss. BUT....strange things have happened in that rivalry and the pressure will be on that team like nothing I can imagine, meanwhile Michigan is just playing with house money in that one.
As far as their ceiling goes, well that ceiling obviously only gets reached if they get fortunate on the injury front (but I think you could say that for any team) and IF they hit on the QB. And that last part is a pretty big if. IF Alex Orji really is that dude....they're going to be a gnarly team because he just adds so much to the run game with his legs and that defense is going to be nasty- and nasty defense + dominant running game = as Borat would say, great success.
As far as their schedule goes, it's very tough. But they do get Texas and Oregon at home.
Texas should be favored because it's so early in the year and Michigan has a lot to figure out with the OL and QB, meanwhile Texas are returning an excellent OL and experienced veteran QB, but they aren't unbeatable. Yes Michigan lost 13 guys to the NFL draft. Texas wasn't that far behind, they lost 11 to the draft. Texas is down 2 of their top 3 RB's to injury including their starter CJ Baxter, they are replacing basically all of their WR's/TE's and Ewers will have to rebuild that chemistry/timing with a whole new cast, and while their defense was middle of the road last year overall and amongst the worst in the nation against the pass- their run defense was one of the tops and it was headlined by an incredible DT duo of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat who went off to the NFL in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft. Michigan will have a real shot in the game, it's going to be closer than people think. Michigan's defense will keep them in every game unless Orji goes ballistic with the turnovers a la Jeff Sims at Nebraska last year.
And as far as Oregon goes, Michigan gets them at home, it's towards the end of the year so they'll have had time to work out some kinks on offense, and Oregon will have had to travel east of the Mississippi back and forth 3 times in very close succession-they just might be a little bit travel fatigued in that spot- and quite frankly I just don't think they are as good as they are being hyped out to be. I think they'll be very good and a top contender in the league, but I don't really buy them being better than Ohio State or clear cut head and shoulders above Michigan and Penn State. I think it's Ohio State at tier 1....and then Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State in a next tier 2.
B1G teams generally don't fare well out west, that is true. And the @ Washington would concern me if Washington didn't lose everybody, but they just lost
21 of 22 players in their two deep, their head coach and entire staff. And they aren't doing a Michigan thing where they are hiring from within and keeping a lot of the coaches/schemes in-tact. It's a wholesale staff change and philosophy/scheme change AND they return 1 guy from their two deep. Washington is probably going to suck with a capital S.
