Pondering the delta in terms of wins between "so-so coach" who was fired and "new coach" who happens to be Urban Meyer Junior, "we" came up with 2-3 extra wins a year, after 2-3 years or so. That hinges on the program being able to recruit at a pretty high level, not a program that has been 4-8 for decades (but maybe even them).
Thus, you might go from 7-6 to 10-3 in two years and hopefully continue an upward trajectory. That is for a whammo hire, and is probably what fans expect, no?
Of course, then you look at say UGA who was 10-3 for two years running when they fired Richt (and then went to 8-5).
The other side of course is that UM Juniors are hard to find, rare in other words, and maybe you might miss more often than hit, so you COULD go through 3-4-5-6 coaches who are no better than you current "Butch Jones". After a 3-4-5 years with new Coach Mediocre, you rinse and repeat, after going say 7-6, 9-4, 8-5, 7-6, fire and hire again.
This all looks pretty risky to me (duh). It to me is a bit like selling a stock and going to cash, or buying some different stock without the option of "going to cash". I suspect some/many of these coaches are fired in part because they had a falling out with the administration by saying inappropriate things that may have cost them another year.
Is Dan Mullen a miracle worker, or just a solid coach? Is he 3 wins better than MacElwain, or just two, or even only one? Or zero? Hmmmmmmmmmm..................
Let's ask Arkansas fans.
