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Topic: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?

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ELA

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #42 on: January 24, 2020, 01:43:10 PM »
When we've looked at that map of college football fandom by zip code, it only listed the top three schools per zip code. But SoCal was almost universally USC/UCLA/Oregon. I.e. Oregon was "sexier" in SoCal, almost 1000 miles away, than Stanford, Cal, Washington, the AZ schools, etc. .
I would bet it's still above all of those in that metric.  And it still has the biggest midwest recognition.  If I just asked my wife who the best team in the Pac 12 was, I guarantee shed say Oregon.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #43 on: January 24, 2020, 01:56:17 PM »
I would bet it's still above all of those in that metric.  And it still has the biggest midwest recognition.  If I just asked my wife who the best team in the Pac 12 was, I guarantee shed say Oregon.
That's fair. And to be honest, I narrowly picked Washington. 

There's just a part of me that feels like Oregon tried to catch lightning in a bottle, missed, and is on the downswing. That doesn't mean they can't recover, but every year they fade even slightly it gets harder and harder to regain what they lost. The Willie Taggart experience was a major misstep. It's unknown whether Cristobal will improve things, especially now that Herbert is gone. I think after they burst onto the scene and now appear to have faded somewhat, their few good years look to be scheme and "smoke and mirrors" more than anything else, and that perception will hurt.

And I just don't think they have the history that I can say they're just "one coach away" from being back, like you can say about true helmet teams. 

They still have good recruits. They are still in a weak enough PAC-12 that going 12-1 with a CCG win may be a better than even shot at a 4-team CFP bid, and 13-0 against their schedule, even if it's perceived weak, will get them in. After that, anything can happen. 

But my prediction is that they're on the downslope, not holding steady or at the bottom of a trough and a return to upslope.

847badgerfan

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #44 on: January 24, 2020, 02:19:21 PM »
Oregon, Washington, Stanford and ASU are lapping the field in PAC recruiting.

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/?Conference=Pac-12

Look at the player rating numbers.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #45 on: January 24, 2020, 03:54:34 PM »
It will be interesting to see what happens to Clemson if Dabo goes to coach his Alma Mater, after Saban retires.
This is an interesting question.  

Bobby Bowden was born in Birmingham and played at Bama his freshman year before transferring to Howard.  He was an up-and-coming HC at WVU from 1970-1975 and HC at FSU from 1976-2009.  During that time, here are the openings that Bama had:
  • 1982:  Bear retired.  Bowden had been at FSU for just seven years.  Did they consider him?
  • 1986:  Ray Perkins left (under pressure) for the NFL.  Bowden had been at FSU for 11 years.  Did they consider him?  
  • 1989:  Bill Curry left for Kentucky (a contract dispute).  Bowden had been at FSU for 14 years.  Did they consider him?  
  • 1996:  Gene Stallings retired.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 21 years and had a NC, he was also almost 70 years old.  I imagine that they didn't consider him.  
  • 2000:  Mike DuBose was fired.  By this time Bowden had two NC's and had been at FSU for 25 years and was over 70.  I imagine that they didn't consider him.  
  • 2002:  Dennis Franchione left for aTm.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 27 years.  I imagine that they didn't consider him.  
  • 2003:  Mike Price was fired before starting.  See above.  
  • 2006:  Mike Shula was fired.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 31 years and was nearly 80.  I imagine that they didn't consider him.  


Dabo Swinney, like Bowden, was born in Birmingham.  He played at Bama in the early 1990's and was an assistant at Bama from 1993-2000 under Curry and Stallings.  He has been the permanent HC at Clemson since 2009 (11 years).  He is now 50 years old.  Wow, it would be crazy if he went to his Alma Mater once the 68 year old Nick Saban retires.  On the other hand, if Saban stays another decade, would Bama want to bring in a 60 year old coach?  

FearlessF

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #46 on: January 24, 2020, 04:49:06 PM »
Dabo has it made in the ACC.  Easy path to the CFP

He's recruiting at nearly the same level as Bama today - that's the biggest reason for a coach to move, better recruits

the only other reason is $$$

I assume Dabo is making decent bank at Clemson and I also assume Clemson would pay him much more if he threatened to go to Bama

perhaps Bama would be willing to pay him a few million more than Clemson, but I doubt they would double his salary
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ELA

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #47 on: January 24, 2020, 06:14:03 PM »
Sometimes mama calls though.  Roy Williams' going from Kansas to UNC would probably be the best parallel.

FearlessF

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #48 on: January 24, 2020, 09:37:29 PM »
sometimes


seems to be less and less these days
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847badgerfan

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2020, 08:36:18 AM »
This is an interesting question. 

Bobby Bowden was born in Birmingham and played at Bama his freshman year before transferring to Howard.  He was an up-and-coming HC at WVU from 1970-1975 and HC at FSU from 1976-2009.  During that time, here are the openings that Bama had:
  • 1982:  Bear retired.  Bowden had been at FSU for just seven years.  Did they consider him?
  • 1986:  Ray Perkins left (under pressure) for the NFL.  Bowden had been at FSU for 11 years.  Did they consider him? 
  • 1989:  Bill Curry left for Kentucky (a contract dispute).  Bowden had been at FSU for 14 years.  Did they consider him? 
  • 1996:  Gene Stallings retired.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 21 years and had a NC, he was also almost 70 years old.  I imagine that they didn't consider him. 
  • 2000:  Mike DuBose was fired.  By this time Bowden had two NC's and had been at FSU for 25 years and was over 70.  I imagine that they didn't consider him. 
  • 2002:  Dennis Franchione left for aTm.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 27 years.  I imagine that they didn't consider him. 
  • 2003:  Mike Price was fired before starting.  See above. 
  • 2006:  Mike Shula was fired.  By this time Bowden had been at FSU for 31 years and was nearly 80.  I imagine that they didn't consider him. 


Dabo Swinney, like Bowden, was born in Birmingham.  He played at Bama in the early 1990's and was an assistant at Bama from 1993-2000 under Curry and Stallings.  He has been the permanent HC at Clemson since 2009 (11 years).  He is now 50 years old.  Wow, it would be crazy if he went to his Alma Mater once the 68 year old Nick Saban retires.  On the other hand, if Saban stays another decade, would Bama want to bring in a 60 year old coach
I think Saban was 57 when Bama got him.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #50 on: January 25, 2020, 05:03:13 PM »
I really love this question.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2020, 08:28:29 AM »
I really love this question.
Because you are enjoying being a fan/alum of the most recent school to win their first?

Kris60

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2020, 09:28:31 AM »
I chose Oregon for the most of the same reasons already mentioned on here.  Facilities, Nike money, and a brand.  Kids today probably view them as the premier program on the West Coast.

I love Wisconsin and how they play and the sustained success they’ve had for nearly 30 years how.  But I think they are probably at their ceiling.  Wisconsin overachieves as it is.  I think their chances of taking a step back are better than taking the next step forward.

ELA

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2020, 10:36:30 AM »
I chose Oregon for the most of the same reasons already mentioned on here.  Facilities, Nike money, and a brand.  Kids today probably view them as the premier program on the West Coast.

I love Wisconsin and how they play and the sustained success they’ve had for nearly 30 years how.  But I think they are probably at their ceiling.  Wisconsin overachieves as it is.  I think their chances of taking a step back are better than taking the next step forward.
Yeah, I think all non helmet Midwest schools have, because there are simply too many, given the high school talent in the region.  Oregon just has USC.  Flipping spots with one school isn't that crazy.  Even if Michigan or Penn State or Notre Dame or Ohio State has a Minnesota, or even Nebraska or Tennessee fall from helmet status, the other three remain.  Even as good as MSU and Iowa and Wisconsin have been at times, the gap between their best and being NC good is so wide.

DevilFroggy

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2020, 12:58:37 PM »


But my prediction is that they're on the downslope, not holding steady or at the bottom of a trough and a return to upslope.

I wish this was true, I'd absolutely love for it to be true. Sadly though, I really doubt it is. Cristobal may not be an elite Xs and Os game day coach but he has assembled a fantastic staff of recruiters and they are absolutely pulling them in up there. I hate it, I'd love to see them fall to middling or worse but as long as they keep pulling in the talent they'll have teams you or I could coach to a 13-1 record, and possibly an NC.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Which school will be the next to win their first AP National Title?
« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2020, 04:29:19 PM »
Because you are enjoying being a fan/alum of the most recent school to win their first?
Uh, no...because it's a great question/poll.
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