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Topic: What team is your team's "kryptonite?

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medinabuckeye1

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What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« on: June 05, 2025, 11:01:44 AM »
In another thread @betarhoalphadelta brought up Purdue's surprisingly good record against Ohio State and @Brutus Buckeye explained it by saying that the Train Horn sound effect was Ohio State's kryptonite.  What other series have records that you wouldn't expect?  

Here are H2H records from 1993-2023 for the 11 teams that have been in the Big11Ten/B1G for that entire time.  Note, this doesn't exactly match up to anything.  It isn't conference record because it omits games against UNL, RU, UMD, and the four west coast schools.  It also includes CCG match-ups.  Anyway, here goes:

It reads across not down, ie:

  • Ohio State is .633 against Michigan
  • Ohio State is .742 against Penn State
It is sorted from best overall record at the top/left to worst at the bottom/right.  Thus, in theory, each team should have their worst record at the left and their best at the right.  For example, Ohio State is only .633 against Michigan that is worse than tOSU is against any of the others and it is at the left while Ohio State is perfect against the Hoosiers and that shows up at the right.  


utee94

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2025, 11:15:22 AM »
Vanderbilt.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2025, 11:16:39 AM »
Outliers by school:

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are surprisingly bad against Purdue.  Obviously .750 is a winning record but Ohio State's record against Purdue is about the same as their record against PSU and UW and it shouldn't be because PSU and UW have been much better teams.  Ohio State is surprisingly good against Iowa and Minnesota.  

Michigan:
The Wolverines, like the Buckeyes, are surprisingly bad against Purdue.  It isn't as stark of an outlier as it is for Ohio State but they still statistically should be a bit better against the Boilermakers.  The Wolverines are surprisingly good against Penn State and Iowa.  

Penn State:
The Nittany Lions are surprisingly bad against Iowa and Minnesota.  They are surprisingly good against . . . Purdue.  

Wisconsin:
The Badgers are surprisingly bad against Penn State while they are surprisingly good against Purdue.  

Iowa:
Iowa is surprisingly bad against Ohio State.  They are worse than MSU, PU, and IL and they shouldn't be *THAT* bad.  They are also not as good as expected against Indiana.  They are surprisingly good against PSU.  

Michigan State:
The Spartans are surprisingly bad against Indiana and surprisingly good against Michigan and Northwestern.  

Northwestern:
The only record out of order for the Wildcats is that they are surprisingly bad against Michigan State.  However, their record against Ohio State is also surprisingly bad.  They shouldn't be worse against the Buckeyes than Purdue and Illinois yet they are.  

Purdue:
Purdue is either surprisingly good against tOSU and M or surprisingly bad against PSU and UW or maybe it is a little of both.  They are also either surprisingly good against Illinois or surprisingly bad against Indiana.  

Minnesota:
The Gophers are surprisingly bad against Ohio State and, to a lesser extent Michigan.  They are surprisingly good against Penn State.  

Illinois:
The Illini are surprisingly bad against Michigan State and surprisingly good against Michigan and, to a lesser extent Ohio State.  

Indiana:
The Hoosiers are surprisingly good against Iowa.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2025, 11:21:50 AM »
I guess Tennessee would be ours, our all-time record against them is dismal (for as little as we've played them for being in the same conference so long).  Though I'm not sure if you can call that "kryptonite" because Tennessee has probably been the better overall program, historically.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2025, 11:25:05 AM »
Though I'm not sure if you can call that "kryptonite" because Tennessee has probably been the better overall program, historically. 
Yeah, I'm not really looking for teams that you are bad against because they are really good.  What I'm looking for here is teams that you aren't as good as you "should be" against.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2025, 11:25:22 AM »
Purdue:
Purdue is either surprisingly good against tOSU and M or surprisingly bad against PSU and UW or maybe it is a little of both.  They are also either surprisingly good against Illinois or surprisingly bad against Indiana. 
Purdue is absurdly bad against Wisconsin. Purdue has not beaten Wisconsin since 2003. That's the one that I put up as "L" in Sharpie preseason if I see them on our schedule. 

Ever since this, we can't beat Wisconsin.



847badgerfan

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2025, 11:32:58 AM »
I was there.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2025, 11:36:22 AM »
Two things that explain a lot of the statistical outliers here are:

  • A lot of them involve match-ups not played all that frequently, and
  • Most of them involve uneven match-ups where one team almost always wins.  

As an example of both, look at Iowa's record against Ohio State.  They are only .133 against the Buckeyes which is worse than MSU, PU, and IL despite Iowa being a better team than those three over the past three decades.  

Well, Iowa has only played Ohio State 15 times (a little less than every other year) and they are 2-13 but here is the thing:
  • With one more win they'd be 3-12 or .200 which would be even with MSU and better than IL.  
  • With two more wins they'd be 4-11 or .267 which would be second best in the league behind only Michigan.  

Over the last ~30 years there have been blowouts both ways but there have also been a few close Ohio State wins including:
  • By 3 in 2010 - In this one Iowa led 17-10 until almost mid-way through the 4th quarter and 17-13 until Ohio State scored the winning TD with less than two minutes to go.  
  • By 3 in 2009 in OT.  


My point is that it wouldn't take a humongous change to give Iowa those two wins and then we'd be talking about how Hawkeyes are Ohio State's kryptonite.  

FearlessF

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2025, 11:40:13 AM »


OR

"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MikeDeTiger

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2025, 11:48:47 AM »
Yeah, I'm not really looking for teams that you are bad against because they are really good.  What I'm looking for here is teams that you aren't as good as you "should be" against. 

They might qualify after all.  While they were good historically, we were close to the same level.  

All-time win%
UT:    .673  (11th)
LSU:  .655  (14th)

Conf. Championships
UT:    16
LSU:  16

All-time wins
UT:    886 (10th)
LSU:  852 (12th)

Based on that, you probably wouldn't expect a 10-21-3 record against them, but that's what it is.  And that includes an outlier period of 5 straight wins beginning in 2006.  So think about this, in the first ~80 years of playing each other, LSU accrued just a 5-20-3 record against them.  Not nearly as close as their records might suggest.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2025, 11:57:35 AM »
Two things that explain a lot of the statistical outliers here are:

  • A lot of them involve match-ups not played all that frequently, and
  • Most of them involve uneven match-ups where one team almost always wins. 

My point is that it wouldn't take a humongous change to give Iowa those two wins and then we'd be talking about how Hawkeyes are Ohio State's kryptonite. 

SFBadger96

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2025, 11:59:04 AM »
Off the top of my head, I think of Northwestern as Wisconsin's. Probably because I have an outsized view of what Wisconsin football should be, but I feel like there have been way too many inexplicable losses to Northwestern. Penn State is never worse than pretty good. Should the Badgers have a better record against them? Maybe, but losing to Penn State doesn't hurt the way losing to Northwestern does.

I have no idea if the data bears this out, but it always pisses me off. The most embarassed I have ever been for Wisconsin football was in 2023 when Northwestern came to Camp Randall and kicked the snot out of the Badgers. Unreal.

847badgerfan

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Re: What team is your team's "kryptonite?
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2025, 12:05:40 PM »
Off the top of my head, I think of Northwestern as Wisconsin's. Probably because I have an outsized view of what Wisconsin football should be, but I feel like there have been way too many inexplicable losses to Northwestern. Penn State is never worse than pretty good. Should the Badgers have a better record against them? Maybe, but losing to Penn State doesn't hurt the way losing to Northwestern does.

I have no idea if the data bears this out, but it always pisses me off. The most embarassed I have ever been for Wisconsin football was in 2023 when Northwestern came to Camp Randall and kicked the snot out of the Badgers. Unreal.
It's this for me. The trophy case is empty. This cannot be tolerated. All three of these teams absolutely trucked Wisconsin.


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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