header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 21   Go Down
Author

Topic: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas

 (Read 1543 times)

CWSooner

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6534
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #154 on: December 01, 2025, 02:11:23 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 01:19:35 PM
Oh he's definitely politicking.

But the reality is, in the current 12-team CFP landscape, it's the right thing to do, anyway.

That hasn't always been the case, actually.  It wasn't the right thing in the 4-team playoff because the risk/reward ratio was different.  In 2023 Texas playing, and beating, Alabama in the OOC schedule, is what put Texas into the playoffs.

But in a 12-team playoff the risk/reward calculation is very different.  Pure W/L column appears to rule the day.

In some future 16-team playoff (or larger), those calculations probably change again.

But for now, scheduling a loss is a losing proposition.

Before this season, the CFP Committee announced that it would consider strength of schedule (or maybe it was strength of record), but it doesn't seem like they are consistently following their own guidance. Maybe a better committee (or purely computer rankings) would produce results that didn't significantly punish the losers of marquee OOC matchups.

The loss can't be ignored, but it could be mitigated.

On the flip side, should losses to bad teams carry extra weight?
Logged
Play Like a Champion Today

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 88012
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #155 on: December 01, 2025, 02:15:22 PM »
My approach is to assign each game outcome a grade, A-F.  If you beat Charleston S, you get an I, it's ignored.  If you barely beat a poor team you get maybe a C- or D.  The Texas win over A&M would be an A.  They get an A- for OU and Vandy, and a B for Ohio State, maybe C for UGA, and so forth.
Logged

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 4540
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #156 on: December 01, 2025, 02:17:56 PM »
I think the other thing that has really a hampered Texas' position is the fact that they played very poorly against Miss State and Kentucky, two teams with horrible records.  I don't recall all their games either, but it seems like they had another close call against somebody they shouldn't have as well, plus the loss to Georgia that was a close game until the end. 

The MSU and UK games are telling of a team that is inconsistent.  A&M basically got away with the same thing with SCAR, but you almost expect something like that on almost any good team at some point in the season.  When it happens once, you're resilient and able to mount an impressive come-back.  When it happens twice, even if you win, it's lack of consistency and signs of weakness.  
Logged

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25251
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #157 on: December 01, 2025, 02:54:56 PM »
Quote from: Gigem on December 01, 2025, 02:17:56 PM
I think the other thing that has really a hampered Texas' position is the fact that they played very poorly against Miss State and Kentucky, two teams with horrible records.  I don't recall all their games either, but it seems like they had another close call against somebody they shouldn't have as well, plus the loss to Georgia that was a close game until the end.

The MSU and UK games are telling of a team that is inconsistent.  A&M basically got away with the same thing with SCAR, but you almost expect something like that on almost any good team at some point in the season.  When it happens once, you're resilient and able to mount an impressive come-back.  When it happens twice, even if you win, it's lack of consistency and signs of weakness. 
Oh yeah I'm not arguing against any of that, and I'm not arguing that Texas should be included.  And I won't shed a tear if Texas is NOT included.

But I am saying that despite all that, a 10-2 Texas with a win over Georgia State rather than a loss to Ohio State, and with wins over top 12 Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt, isn't getting left out of the playoff.  Nobody else has a resume' with wins like that.

And that's the point of this thread that medina brought up.  Does it pay to schedule tough OOC games?  For Texas, this season, the answer appears to be a resounding "no."
Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 50928
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #158 on: December 01, 2025, 02:57:32 PM »
and next season it could be a "yes"
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25251
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #159 on: December 01, 2025, 03:00:23 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2025, 02:57:32 PM
and next season it could be a "yes"
I don't think so.  I think a 10-2, 2-SEC-loss Texas with wins over 3 Top 12 teams is going to get into the playoffs in any year, regardless of whether they beat Ohio State, or they beat Georgia State.

All that matters is the W/L column.  So, never schedule a loss.
Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 50928
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #160 on: December 01, 2025, 03:08:48 PM »
but, what if they don't have wins over top 12 teams (0)

maybe there are 5 1-loss teams in the SEC and the other 2-loss team is OU with the head to head

it's improbable as hell, but............. 
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MikeDeTiger

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5522
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #161 on: December 01, 2025, 03:10:41 PM »
That's true.  You could wind up with Ole Miss' SEC schedule and win a lot of games but not rack up W's against top-whatever teams.  
Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 50928
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #162 on: December 01, 2025, 03:12:48 PM »
Vandy is a 2-loss SEC team, no one talkin bout their chances

Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25251
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #163 on: December 01, 2025, 03:17:40 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2025, 03:08:48 PM
but, what if they don't have wins over top 12 teams (0)

maybe there are 5 1-loss teams in the SEC and the other 2-loss team is OU with the head to head

it's improbable as hell, but.............
If Texas isn't beating Top 12ish SEC teams, then they're not beating the Ohio States of the world either, so in that case it'd be even better for Texas not to schedule a guaranteed OOC loss.
Logged

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25251
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #164 on: December 01, 2025, 03:24:02 PM »
Anyway, I think we have a new question-- what does the committee do with Ole Miss? 

Three seasons ago they ejected Florida State when their QB1 went down.  Would they apply similar logic to a coachless team?

I'm guessing not, but is it possible?

Logged

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 15886
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #165 on: December 01, 2025, 03:29:30 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 03:24:02 PM
Anyway, I think we have a new question-- what does the committee do with Ole Miss?

Three seasons ago they ejected Florida State when their QB1 went down.  Would they apply similar logic to a coachless team?

I'm guessing not, but is it possible?
I'm guessing it won't happen. The big difference is it was a 4-team field then, and a 12-team field now. 

If they're letting G5 teams into this thing, they probably will keep a seat for Ole Miss. 
Logged

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 50928
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #166 on: December 01, 2025, 03:33:02 PM »
if Ole Miss is out, there's an SEC spot for the Horns
Logged
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 4540
  • Liked:
Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #167 on: December 01, 2025, 03:35:47 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 01, 2025, 03:00:23 PM
I don't think so.  I think a 10-2, 2-SEC-loss Texas with wins over 3 Top 12 teams is going to get into the playoffs in any year, regardless of whether they beat Ohio State, or they beat Georgia State.

All that matters is the W/L column.  So, never schedule a loss.
I agree with you.  And I'll add to boot, think about this A&M team at 11-1.  It's widely acknowledged that we did not have a very tough SEC schedule (after the fact).  But they can't take away that we beat ND, at their house, in September.  I'm not sure how the committee will end up slotting everybody after CCG weekend but some are saying we could still be inline for a bye if thing shake out just right.  That ND win could end up helping us tremendously.  
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 21   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
CFB51 Subscription
Subscribe

Tennessee Country Medallion