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Topic: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas

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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #98 on: December 01, 2025, 10:02:28 AM »
It will be interesting, the final selections.  It all hinges on the competition wrt teams like Vandy and Texas and OU et al.  I predict the selections will be criticized, along with the rank ordering.

I'm a bit amused at the UGA position, being 3 now, and would be 3 later had they missed the CG (or if they win, might be 2).  If they lose in the CG, their 2/3 slot drops to ... 6?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #99 on: December 01, 2025, 10:32:22 AM »
It will be interesting to see the CFP rankings tomorrow. The AP and Coaches are already released and Texas is sitting behind Miami/Vandy. 

Last week the CFP had Texas down at #16, also still behind Miami/Vandy.

Miami and Vandy both won games by wide margins against teams the CFP had in the top 25, and obviously Texas had a statement win.

If the CFP is going to reward Texas for that win, they'll have to show their hand this week by putting Texas ahead of those two. Because none of the three are playing in a CCG, so there'd be no explanation for any relative movement after CCG week. 

Vandy has zero big wins and a loss to Texas. Keeping Texas behind them seems to be punishing them for scheduling tough OOC, or at the minimum not giving them enough credit for big wins to offset the bad loss to Florida.

Miami has two decent wins (ND in their opener and Pitt in their closer), and two losses I wouldn't consider terrible. 

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #100 on: December 01, 2025, 10:52:17 AM »
I'd jump Texas over the Sooners, Notre Dame, Vandy, & Miami
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #101 on: December 01, 2025, 10:56:24 AM »
As if someone forced the Big Ten to have 9 conference games this whole time.  FFS

Endless whining about something that isn't against any rule.
I'm happy the SEC is moving to 9 just so the Big Ten fans can shut the fuck up about it.
I typed up this reply over the weekend but it disappeared into the cloud so I'll try again. 

I take a middle-road view of the 9 league games issue.  @Gigem has a point:
9 games What a joke. Chances are you’d end up with one extra game vs Kentucky or some other perennial bottom feeder.
I conditionally agree.  It is entirely possible that Ohio State's ninth league game this year was Purdue in which case what difference does it make if Ohio State played eight league games and four OOC or nine and three? 

The conditions are these:
  • What OOC is getting dropped to make room for the ninth league game?  For example, this season Florida played eight league games, two P4 (Miami, FSU), a quality G5 (or whatever, USF), and a cupcake (Long Island).  Which of those four OOCs are they dropping?  It probably isn't going to be Long Island so there is a decent chance that UF going to nine league games will actually make their schedule easier because swapping out Miami for Arkansas is a distinct possibility. 
  • I've been harping on this point for a while now but in the mega-conference era we simply can't think of all SEC Schedules nor all B1G Schedules as being more-or-less equivalent.  They simply aren't. 

With respect to point #2, here are Florida's and Ole Miss's SEC opponents ranked 1-8 by final SEC record:
  • 7-1 UGA:  7-1 UGA
  • 7-1 Ole Miss:  6-2 OU
  • 7-1 aTm:  3-5 LSU
  • 6-2 Texas:  2-6 UF
  • 4-4 Tennessee:  2-6 UK
  • 3-5 LSU:  1-7 USCe
  • 2-6 UK:  1-7 MissSt
  • 1-7 MissSt:  0-8 Arkansas

Those two league schedules aren't remotely comparable.  Ole Miss played only two teams that finished with non-losing records in the SEC.  Florida played five.  We all need to accept the new reality that there are massive variations in the difficulty of league schedules even WITHIN the leagues. 

Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #102 on: December 01, 2025, 11:42:20 AM »
Yup, the huge conferences will inherently mean disparate conference SoS.  This past season some usual top teams like LSU and Florida were ... not great.  Meanwhile Vandy was 10-2 (yeah, soft schedule).  You can't control it, you can't prevent it.

I'd mandate all P4 teams play ten P4 teams a year.

Gigem

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #103 on: December 01, 2025, 11:44:28 AM »
I typed up this reply over the weekend but it disappeared into the cloud so I'll try again. 

I take a middle-road view of the 9 league games issue.  @Gigem has a point:I conditionally agree.  It is entirely possible that Ohio State's ninth league game this year was Purdue in which case what difference does it make if Ohio State played eight league games and four OOC or nine and three? 

The conditions are these:
  • What OOC is getting dropped to make room for the ninth league game?  For example, this season Florida played eight league games, two P4 (Miami, FSU), a quality G5 (or whatever, USF), and a cupcake (Long Island).  Which of those four OOCs are they dropping?  It probably isn't going to be Long Island so there is a decent chance that UF going to nine league games will actually make their schedule easier because swapping out Miami for Arkansas is a distinct possibility. 
  • I've been harping on this point for a while now but in the mega-conference era we simply can't think of all SEC Schedules nor all B1G Schedules as being more-or-less equivalent.  They simply aren't. 

With respect to point #2, here are Florida's and Ole Miss's SEC opponents ranked 1-8 by final SEC record:
  • 7-1 UGA:  7-1 UGA
  • 7-1 Ole Miss:  6-2 OU
  • 7-1 aTm:  3-5 LSU
  • 6-2 Texas:  2-6 UF
  • 4-4 Tennessee:  2-6 UK
  • 3-5 LSU:  1-7 USCe
  • 2-6 UK:  1-7 MissSt
  • 1-7 MissSt:  0-8 Arkansas

Those two league schedules aren't remotely comparable.  Ole Miss played only two teams that finished with non-losing records in the SEC.  Florida played five.  We all need to accept the new reality that there are massive variations in the difficulty of league schedules even WITHIN the leagues.
You know what?  I probably have a bad attitude this week but all we're doing is polishing a turd with these 16 team conferences anyways.  I don't even actually know how many teams the Big 10 has.  I think it's up to 18 by now isn't it?  
None of it makes any sense.  The SEC has multiple teams with 1 conference loss, and our CCG is Alabama and Georgia. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.  

The only real answer is to have a true round-robin for the whole conference, no matter how many teams you have.  Ideally, 10 or so teams.  Maybe 12, but you have to concede out of conference games.  Fine by me, you'll have them in the playoff.  Because in the long term, you can never schedule conference games with any semblance of balance because the minute you do the teams that are at the top will tank (LSU, Florida) and the teams that traditionally on bottom will get good (Ole Miss, Vanderbilt).  

A&M will for sure go to the playoff, and likely win the first round, and possibly even make it to the 3rd round.  I saw one projection that lists A&M/Tulane, Texas Tech, and then some combo of Ohio State/OU/ND.  We already beat ND in Southbed, no reason to think we can't beat them at a neutral site.  I like our odds vs OU.  Ohio State I wouldn't bet with your money but it would be awesome to make the 3rd round.  

When all the dust is settled you know who will be in the final?  Georgia and Ohio State.  Mark my words.  Meet the new boss.  Same as the old boss.  



Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #104 on: December 01, 2025, 11:52:29 AM »
Ideally, conferences would be in the 10-12 range, I agree, but that horse is out of the barn.  I was fine with 12, but $$$$$$$$$$$$.

We're going to have teams with nice looking 10-2 records each year who basically lost to the two good teams they played.  I'd give Vandy a bit of credit for beating Tennessee and maybe Mizzou.  Miami is 10-2 and very possibly will miss the playoff despite the win over ND, who probably will make the CFP.


FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #105 on: December 01, 2025, 11:53:06 AM »
the lesson is........... when ya get a lucky draw and a weak conference sched, take full advantage.  Don't "F" it up
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #106 on: December 01, 2025, 11:58:38 AM »
Here are Florida's and Ole Miss's SEC opponents ranked 1-8 by final SEC record:
  • 7-1 UGA:  7-1 UGA
  • 7-1 Ole Miss:  6-2 OU
  • 7-1 aTm:  3-5 LSU
  • 6-2 Texas:  2-6 UF
  • 4-4 Tennessee:  2-6 UK
  • 3-5 LSU:  1-7 USCe
  • 2-6 UK:  1-7 MissSt
  • 1-7 MissSt:  0-8 Arkansas

Those two league schedules aren't remotely comparable.  Ole Miss played only two teams that finished with non-losing records in the SEC.  Florida played five.  We all need to accept the new reality that there are massive variations in the difficulty of league schedules even WITHIN the leagues. 
I don't know that UF had the toughest nor that Ole Miss had the easiest SEC schedules though they likely did.  For comparison, here are the toughest (UW) and easiest (IU) B1G schedules this year, similarly laid out:
  • 9-0 tOSU:  8-1 ORE
  • 9-0 IU:  6-3 IA
  • 8-1 Ore:  5-4 IL
  • 7-2 M:  3-6 PSU
  • 6-3 IA:  3-6 UCLA
  • 5-4 UDub:  2-7 UW
  • 5-4 ILL:  1-8 UMD
  • 5-4 MN:  1-8 MSU
  • 1-8 UMD:  0-9 PU

This is the same story as the UF/Ole Miss comparison.  Indiana's and Wisconsin's B1G schedules this year were not remotely comparable.  Only one of Wisconsin's league opponents finished under .500 in the league.  For Indiana it was six!  

jgvol

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #107 on: December 01, 2025, 11:59:07 AM »
Let's just get to 20 team conferences already, and split into 2 divisions again, and that will quell most of this.

(Not that I like 20 team conferences, but if it is inevitable....just do it)

SFBadger96

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #108 on: December 01, 2025, 11:59:39 AM »
Bottom line for me is a team with two in-conference losses, that is 5th in its own conference has no business being in the national championship tournament. Add that one of those losses is a WTF loss to a bad team, and it's hard for me to care. It's not an OOC scheduling issue, it's a not good enough in its own conference issue. Does that mean that disparate in-conference schedules hurt teams like Texas? Probably. But do I have any reason to care? No. I know, they have two top-10 wins--which is probably as many as just about any team. That's impressive. They also have two top 10 losses, and a bottom feeder loss. This isn't the NFL, where everyone is pretty good, even the "bad" teams.

Does that mean Notre Dame should be left out because it doesn't play in a conference? There's a decent argument for that, but at least it doesn't have any WTF results. It has two losses to top-13 (season end rankings) teams by a combined four points, and no WTF results. Quality wins over #4 teams in the B1G and ACC. Not as impressive as Texas's wins over aTm and Oklahoma.

Maybe what all of this really means is that 16 is too many teams for this tournament.

PS: Michigan doesn't belong in this discussion at all. Its best wins were over Washington (7th in the B1G) and Northwestern (10th in the B1G). It may not have any WTF losses, but it lost to every actually good team it played.

utee94

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #109 on: December 01, 2025, 12:02:59 PM »
the lesson is........... when ya get a lucky draw and a weak conference sched, take full advantage.  Don't "F" it up
Also, the lesson is-- never schedule a potential loss.

FearlessF

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #110 on: December 01, 2025, 12:04:43 PM »
Let's just get to 20 team conferences already, and split into 2 divisions again, and that will quell most of this.

(Not that I like 20 team conferences, but if it is inevitable....just do it)
yup, so (2) 20-team TV negotiations and (4) 10-team conferences (regional hopefully)
add 2 or 3 other 10-team conferences to get to 60 or 70 teams - done
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Cincydawg

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Re: What should the committee do with Michigan and Texas
« Reply #111 on: December 01, 2025, 12:04:49 PM »
Will more elite programs adhere to that philosophy now than before?

 

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