I would be curious if the distribution above is a sign of playing poorly, or just kind of a bland reality of going 6-2 with a semi-balanced schedule.
if you play three top end teams in the league, two .500 ones and three substandard to bad ones, that seems like a somewhat normal distribution and the most logical way to get to 6-2
I'm not saying they played poorly. The question is whether Oklahoma benefited from beating Michigan OOC. And IMHO that question can't be answered as "did they have a good season", which they invariably did... The question in modern college football HAS TO BE whether that benefits them in the CFP selection process.
With five auto-bids, that means you have 7 at-large slots.
- You have to assume the loser of the OSU/IU game is in.
- Oregon is in.
- A&M is in.
So that means you're now down to four remaining slots:
- If Texas Tech wins the CCG, they're in. But if Utah wins, TTU will be 11-2. The CFP committee SEEMS to not like punishing a team for losing their CCG.
- You've got UGA/Bama. If Bama wins, UGA will be 11-2. Given the ranking coming into the game, you'd think UGA would still be in based purely on that and the committee not punishing a CG loss. If not, Bama is still sitting there at 10-3 and may have a claim.
- You have Ole Miss at 11-1.
- You have ND at 10-2.
- You have Oklahoma at 10-2.
- You have Texas at 9-3.
- Then there are 10-2 "outsiders" Miami and Vanderbilt.
As I said above, Oklahoma at 10-2 with their sole marquee win being Alabama, and 3 cupcakes OOC, and losing to the two other 6-2 conference teams? That's by no means "playing poorly", but that's the sort of resume that the CFP selection committee might punish for scheduling cupcakes OOC. There are a lot of teams in the above list that the committee might deem more deserving, including the Texas team that has 3 resume-building wins, including a multi-score beatdown of Oklahoma.
But they didn't schedule just cupcakes; they played [and beat] Michigan. So they now have two strong resume wins, instead of just one.
So I'm saying that playing [and beating] Michigan ultimately benefits OU. Had they not, I don't think they'd be sitting at #8 in the current polls. They might be closer to the area where Miami (#12) and Vanderbilt (#13) are sitting, 2-loss teams that have relatively weak resumes.