Yeah, for Texas, I agree in general with what y'all are saying on the merits of the season overall, as it stands. There are plenty of deserving teams, that currently are,, and will be, ranked ahead of Texas.
But the question at hand, the one medina is working to tease out, is-- if Texas doesn't get into the CFP this year with everything playing out exactly as it has, then what reason is there to schedule tough OOC games at all?
I keep bringing up Ole Miss scheduling a home game against Georgia State in their opener, while Texas scheduled an away game @Ohio State.
As poorly as Texas played early in the season, there's no doubt that Texas would have beaten Georgia State. And there's also no question that a 10-2 Texas with the rest of the results exactly as they are, is getting into the CFP.
So if the committee just looks at the W/L column and eliminates Texas at 3 losses, then they're confirming that there's no benefit to scheduling tough. It's especially true given how closely Texas played Ohio State on the road in Columbus. That 7 point differential is by far the closest game anyone has played against Ohio State all season long.
Like I said, it's tough. Which is why I think medina's question is a little reductionist. You can't break it down exactly like that...
Texas has played 4 teams currently in the top 10 of the rankings, and 5 in the top 25. They're 2-2 against the top 10 and 3-2 against the top 25 (top 15, currently, to be more accurate). In that sense, they've proven they can play with the big boys. They do have one "bad loss" vs Florida as well, which hurts.
Michigan, OTOH, has played 2 teams currently ranked in the top 10 and 3 in the top 25, and they're 0-2 and 0-3 respectively. They haven't proven that they can play with the big boys. As mentioned, their best win will have come against a team that won't finish ranked.
IMHO looking at the specific teams, I think I'm coming to the point where I agree with you that Texas should be in the CFP. I'm pretty sure I could look at a number of other teams on the fringe of "in the conversation" that can't claim to have anywhere near the resume of quality wins that Texas has.
I'd love to see the committee to make a show of keeping Texas in, to show that scheduling tough OOC isn't a penalty. But frankly they can do that WHILE also keeping Michigan out, who scheduled tough OOC, but didn't have the actual resume wins to justify getting included.
