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Topic: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance

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medinabuckeye1

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Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« on: October 20, 2025, 12:40:27 PM »

  • 7-0 Ohio State is off
  • 7-0 Indiana -24.5 vs UCLA Sat at noon on FOX
  • 7-0 aTm -2.5 at #20 LSU Sat at 730 on ABC
  • 6-1 Alabama -13.5 at USCe Sat at 330 on ABC
  • 6-1 Georgia is off
  • 6-1 Oregon -34.5 vs UW Sat at 7 on FS1
  • 7-0 GaTech -17.5 vs Syracuse Sat at noon on ESPN
  • 6-1 Mississippi +4.5 at #13 Oklahoma Sat at noon on ABC
  • 5-1 Miami -30.5 vs Stanford Sat at 7 on ESPN
  • 6-1 Vanderbilt -2.5 vs #15 Mizzou Sat at 330 on ESPN
  • 7-0 BYU +2.5 at ISU Sat at 330 on FOX
  • 5-2 Notre Dame is off
  • 6-1 Oklahoma -4.5 vs #8 Ole Miss Sat at noon on ABC
  • 6-1 TxTech -38.5 vs OkSU Sat at 4 on ESPN
  • 6-1 Mizzou +2.5 at #10 Vandy Sat at 330 on ESPN
  • 6-1 Virginia -10.5 at UNC Sat at noon on ACCN
  • 5-2 Tennessee -9.5 at Kentucky Sat at 740 on SECN
  • 6-1 South Florida -3.5 at Memphis Sat at noon on ESPN2
  • 5-1 Louisville -25.5 vs BC Sat at 730 on ACCN
  • 5-2 LSU +2.5 vs #3 aTm Sat at 730 on ABC
  • 6-1 Cincinnati -5.5 vs Baylor Sat at 4 on ESPN2
  • 5-2 Texas -6.5 at MissSt Sat at 415 on SECN
  • 5-2 Illinois +4.5 at Washington Sat at 330 on BTN
  • 5-2 Arizona State -8.5 vs Houston Sat at 8 on ESPN
  • 5-2 Michigan -14.5 at MSU Sat at 730 on NBC


Ranked vs ranked are:
  • #3 aTm -2.5 at #20 LSU Sat at 730 on ABC
  • #8 Ole Miss +4.5 at #13 Oklahoma Sat at noon on ABC
  • #10 Vandy -2.5 vs #15 Mizzou Sat at 330 on ABC
So ABC has ranked-vs-ranked all day long but that is it.  

Now in the B1G:
  • 7-0/4-0 Ohio State
  • 7-0/4-0 Indiana -24.5 vs UCLA Sat at noon on FOX
  • 6-1/3-1 Oregon -34.5 vs UW Sat at 7 on FS1
  • 5-2/3-1 Northwestern +6.5 at UNL Sat at noon on FS1
  • 5-2/3-1 USC is off
  • 5-2/3-1 Iowa -8.5 vs MN Sat at 330 on CBS
  • 5-2/3-1 Michigan -14.5 at MSU Sat at 730 on NBC
  • 5-2/3-1 Minnesota +8.5 at Iowa Sat at 330 on CBS
  • 3-4/3-1 UCLA +24.5 at IU Sat at noon on FOX
  • 5-2/2-2 Illinois +4.5 at Washington Sat at 330 on BTN
  • 5-2/2-2 Nebraska -6.5 vs NU Sat at noon on FS1
  • 5-2/2-2 Washington -4.5 vs IL Sat at 330 on BTN
  • 4-3/1-3 Maryland is off
  • 3-4/0-4 Michigan State +14.5 vs M Sat at 730 on NBC
  • 3-4/0-4 Penn State is off
  • 3-4/0-4 Rutgers -2.5 at PU Sat at noon on BTN
  • 2-5/0-4 Purdue +2.5 vs RU Sat at noon on BTN
  • 2-5/0-4 Wisconsin +34.5 at Oregon Sat at 7 on FS1


Assuming that Indiana beats UCLA we will get our first mathematical eliminations this weekend as the PU/RU loser  and Wisconsin (assuming they lose at Oregon) and Michigan State (assuming they lose to Michgian) will be mathematically eliminated.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2025, 12:55:31 PM »
The "September Maryland" thing is ridiculous.  We've been talking about it for years and it is uncannily reliable and it is shocking how big of a difference it makes.  

Mid-way through the third quarter on October 4 the Terrapins were 4-0 and up 20-0 against a team whose only previous loss was to the #1 team in the nation.  Since then they:

  • Gave up 24 straight points in the final 19 minutes to lose 24-20 to Washington
  • Lost 34-31 at home to Nebraska
  • Lost 20-17 at UCLA
So now they are 4-3 and after taking this week off they have three ranked teams on the first four Saturdays in November.  

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ManHawk

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2025, 01:51:15 PM »
If Northwestern wins at Nebraska on Sat,  is that enough for NW to be ranked?
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2025, 02:08:58 PM »
perhaps

only 2 losses but, a win over UNL won't be very impressive
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2025, 03:16:36 PM »
Quote from: ManHawk on October 20, 2025, 01:51:15 PM
If Northwestern wins at Nebraska on Sat,  is that enough for NW to be ranked?
I doubt it simply because Tulane beat them handily and the Green Wave aren't ranked.  
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ManHawk

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2025, 10:38:44 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 20, 2025, 03:16:36 PM
I doubt it simply because Tulane beat them handily and the Green Wave aren't ranked. 
Yes,  I guess that early loss to Tulane will keep NW out of the rankings.  I still look at NW's win @ PSU as a decent victory,  despite PSU's 4 game losing streak.   That counts for something.  

 I guess we will find out in the next couple games if NW has truly turned things around.   They have games @Neb, @USC and Mich coming up.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2025, 10:46:50 AM »
Tulane is a 1 loss team that is 28 in the AP. A first game loss to them on the road isn't completely terrible.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2025, 11:15:13 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2025, 10:46:50 AM
Tulane is a 1 loss team that is 28 in the AP. A first game loss to them on the road isn't completely terrible.
I would agree *IF* it had been a competitive loss but it wasn't.  Tulane outgained NU by nearly double and Northwestern trailed the entire game other than the first few minutes before Tulane's first score.  It wasn't within one score anytime after the middle of the second quarter and it wasn't a two-score game anytime after halftime.  

Obviously things can change.  Based on the first week it looked like FSU was a contender and Bama was hot garbage.  That said, I think that NU is going to have to pick up a quality win* or two to get that level of respect.  They have chances.  Their next two are at Nebraska and at USC.  

*Quality win:
In theory the win at Penn State is a quality win but I think most everyone sees that as being more about PSU cratering than anything else.  I'll also add, as an Ohio State fan, that PSU scares the crap out of me.  I know that @SuperMario always laughs at this but I see PSU as the ultimate "High Ceiling / Low Floor" team.  They were preseason #2 for a reason.  There is a lot of talent on the roster.  That talent gives them a VERY high ceiling because if they have a game where everybody is on the same page and they play to their potential they have AT LEAST a top-10 level ceiling.  OTOH, their floor has been evident in embarrassing losses at UCLA and at home to NU.  It is a no-win situation for Ohio State.  If the Buckeyes win it will just be viewed as beating a crappy, 5-loss team that fired their coach.  
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SuperMario

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2025, 11:19:46 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 21, 2025, 11:15:13 AM
  They were preseason #2 for a reason.  There is a lot of talent on the roster.  That talent gives them a VERY high ceiling because if they have a game where everybody is on the same page and they play to their potential they have AT LEAST a top-10 level ceiling. 
They lost their starting qb and their head coach. If the chiefs lost 4 in a row and then lost Andy Reid and Mahomes, I don’t think there’s an argument there’s a reason everyone expects them to be one of the best teams.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2025, 11:29:13 AM »
Quote from: SuperMario on October 21, 2025, 11:19:46 AM
They lost their starting qb and their head coach. If the chiefs lost 4 in a row and then lost Andy Reid and Mahomes, I don’t think there’s an argument there’s a reason everyone expects them to be one of the best teams.
I get what you are saying and I don't think and didn't say "NC level ceiling".  I still think there is enough talent that they *COULD* show up any given week and play like a team MUCH better than their record. The Chiefs without Mahomes/Reid aren't a terrible team.  They obviously aren't as good as they are with Reid coaching and Mahomes playing but they aren't awful.  

There are five 0-4 teams in the B1G currently:
  • MSU
  • RU
  • PU
  • UW
  • PSU
Which one would concern you the most as a Michigan fan?  Maybe MSU due to rivalry but ignoring that it simply HAS to be PSU.  

For me as a tOSU fan it is easily PSU.  Purdue has plenty of upsets over the Buckeyes and MSU has a few notable ones as well but those games are, IMHO, not nearly as scary as PSU.  I'll put it this way:  I feel that if Ohio State showed up and played a reasonably good game (not great but not terrible) they would beat MSU, RU, PSU, or UW no matter how well those teams played.  If the Spartans, Scarlet Knights, Boilermakers, or Badgers played the absolute game of their lives against a reasonably good Ohio State game, it might be somewhat close but the Buckeyes still win.  Penn State is a different animal.  If they show up and play the game of their lives, Ohio State can only beat that by playing a REALLY good game themselves.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2025, 11:35:23 AM »
Not sure where to drop this, but here are the updated cumulative league records of each team's opponents:


The fact that the two remaining undefeated teams have the two worst opponent winning percentages is helping to keep the CG race interesting.  Obviously the Hoosiers and Buckeyes control their own destiny.  If they keep winning, they are going to meet in Indianapolis but if either of them lose a game the tiebreakers are VERY unfavorable for them.  

FWIW:
Ohio State's and Indiana's opponents are so bad because they are the only two teams in the league to play four of the five winless teams.  They each play PSU, PU, and UW.  Ohio State also plays Rutgers while Indiana also plays Michigan State.  Their other five opponents are 13-7 (tOSU) and 12-8 (IU) but obviously playing so many of the bottom-feeders drags down the percentage.  
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SuperMario

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2025, 12:12:27 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 21, 2025, 11:29:13 AM
I get what you are saying and I don't think and didn't say "NC level ceiling".  I still think there is enough talent that they *COULD* show up any given week and play like a team MUCH better than their record. The Chiefs without Mahomes/Reid aren't a terrible team.  They obviously aren't as good as they are with Reid coaching and Mahomes playing but they aren't awful. 

There are five 0-4 teams in the B1G currently:
  • MSU
  • RU
  • PU
  • UW
  • PSU
Which one would concern you the most as a Michigan fan?  Maybe MSU due to rivalry but ignoring that it simply HAS to be PSU. 

For me as a tOSU fan it is easily PSU.  Purdue has plenty of upsets over the Buckeyes and MSU has a few notable ones as well but those games are, IMHO, not nearly as scary as PSU.  I'll put it this way:  I feel that if Ohio State showed up and played a reasonably good game (not great but not terrible) they would beat MSU, RU, PSU, or UW no matter how well those teams played.  If the Spartans, Scarlet Knights, Boilermakers, or Badgers played the absolute game of their lives against a reasonably good Ohio State game, it might be somewhat close but the Buckeyes still win.  Penn State is a different animal.  If they show up and play the game of their lives, Ohio State can only beat that by playing a REALLY good game themselves. 
In those terms, I completely agree with you. PSU would be what I would consider the toughest test. That being said, it's like asking a Chiefs fan who is your biggest fear, the Jets, Saints, Titans or Browns... and the true answer is.. none of them.

OSU should have zero fears until the UM game and that solely because that game has had bizarre outcomes. The game against PSU, sit back and enjoy the blowout. It's coming. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2025, 12:42:00 PM »
Quote from: SuperMario on October 21, 2025, 12:12:27 PM
the UM game and that solely because that game has had bizarre outcomes. The game against PSU, sit back and enjoy the blowout. It's coming.
While you were posting that I was posting a CG race analysis.  Given Michigan's remaining schedule, there is a pretty good chance that they'll head into The Game at 9-2/7-1.  In that case, there is a whole host of extra issues for Ohio State wrt The Game.  

For one thing, if Ohio State gets there at 11-0 then not only will a CFP spot be assured but a first round bye would be a distinct possibility EVEN with a loss.  Michigan, OTOH, probably can't make the CFP at 9-3* so for them The Game would be the end-all-be-all.  

*FWIW:
The CFP Committee doesn't seem to care about what we used to call 'bad losses'.  Ie, to me a 9-3 Michigan with the third loss being to tOSU is basically the same thing as a 9-3 Michigan with a win over tOSU and the third loss coming to say Purdue.  In my mind the 'bad loss' and the 'good win' offset.  The committee has shown pretty clearly that they disagree.  They don't seem to care in the slightest about 'bad losses' but they REALLY care about quality wins.  Thus, IMHO, a 9-3 Michigan with the third loss coming to Ohio State is hopeless for the CFP because their best win would be an unranked or barely ranked team.  However, a 9-3 Michigan with a bad loss to say Purdue and a win over tOSU is in.  

Consequently, my view of Michigan's chances is that they can't make the CFP without beating tOSU but if they DO beat tOSU then they can afford a mulligan somewhere along the way.  
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SuperMario

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Re: Week 9 top-25 at-a-glance
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2025, 01:02:18 PM »
I think the USC loss was their mulligan, but besides that I agree with that. What's really interesting is Michigan wouldn't have to worry about the Big10 championship game, where a 3rd loss could possibly knock them out of the playoffs if they did beat OSU. 

I will find it interesting if it does play out with OSU winning out and Michigan winning out until The Game. Will it lessen the importance to OSU? On the surface i would say no, but it's not a must win like it would be for Michigan. 
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