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Topic: Week 8 top-25 at a glance

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Cincydawg

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2025, 09:39:46 AM »
I doubt any P4 team 5-1 at this point ends up 6-6.  Obviously it's possible and could happen but seems unlikely to me.  Somebody might have had a really front end loaded slate of pastries and goes 1-5.
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2025, 09:52:09 AM »
yup, the SEC eats pastries later in the season
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Cincydawg

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2025, 09:58:19 AM »
A typical SEC slate starts with 2 pastries, saves one for the penultimate game before a rival, who usually can be decent.  So, they start 2-0 before hitting reality and could get a break in conference play over the next 4 games and go 3-1 while being mediocre.  Then maybe the real season gets real and the drop the next four, but that have that savory croissant in week 11.

It could happen, would be pretty rare I think.  I think Vandy has a pretty solid team if their QB stays healthy, but they did have a front loaded schedule of pastries.

Now it gets pretty real, LSU Mizzou Texas Auburn UK Tennessee.  Yeah, they could go 1-5 with that, but I'd say 2-4 is more probable.  Are they one of Texas' rivals?  I think not.
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ManHawk

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2025, 10:51:07 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 14, 2025, 09:39:46 AM
I doubt any P4 team 5-1 at this point ends up 6-6.  Obviously it's possible and could happen but seems unlikely to me.  Somebody might have had a really front end loaded slate of pastries and goes 1-5.
There is some history here.  We joke a lot on this board how September Maryland  always looks unbeatable,  then tanks in Oct and Nov.  Michigan under Rich Rod and Hoke were also famous for this.  Even early Harbaugh had issues in November.

I am feeling lazy today and don't feel like looking it up,  but I am sure we could find plenty of examples.  Probably a lot more examples of 5-1 teams that finish 7-5,  but finding 6-6 teams might be harder, I admit.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2025, 11:07:48 AM by ManHawk »
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ManHawk

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2025, 10:54:56 AM »
The love for Nebraska in the AP poll makes my head spin.  In my Big Ten Power Rankings,  I got Nebraska ranked 9th behind Wshington,  Michigan, Illinois and Iowa.
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2025, 10:57:45 AM »
I agree with you

perhaps the voters respect year #3 Matt Rhule
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2025, 10:58:34 AM »
In 2024, the Huskers improved to 5-1 before dropping the next four, eventually setting for a 6-6 record.
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2025, 11:01:21 AM »
According to Kelly Ford and the KFord Ratings, Nebraska has a solid chance to eclipse last year's output.

The regular-season finale is at home with Iowa on Black Friday. The Hawkeyes are 4-2, with wins over Albany, UMass, Rutgers, and Wisconsin and losses to Iowa State and Indiana. KFord gives Nebraska a 53% chance of winning the game, down 12%.

If you take every game with a better than 50% chance as a Nebraska win, then the Big Red are in line to go 9-3. KFord gives Nebraska a 53% chance to win at least nine games, which is 3% lower than before the Maryland win.
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utee94

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2025, 11:03:58 AM »
Quote from: ManHawk on October 14, 2025, 10:51:07 AM
There is some history here.  We joke a lot on this board how Srptember Maryland  always looks unbeatable,  then tanks in Oct and Nov.  Michigan under Rich Rod and Hoke were also famous for this.  Even early Harbaugh had issues in November.

I am feeling lazy today and don't feel like looking it up,  but I am sure we could find plenty of examples.  Probably a lot more examples of 5-1 teams that finish 7-5,  but finding 6-6 teams might be harder, I admit.
Not 5-1, but last year OU started 4-1 and then finished 6-6 in the regular season.  

And with their remaining games @South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss, @Tennessee, @Alabama, vs. Missouri, and vs. LSU, it's a possibility that this year they might go from 5-1 to 6-6.



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utee94

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2025, 11:05:46 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 14, 2025, 09:58:19 AM
A typical SEC slate starts with 2 pastries, saves one for the penultimate game before a rival, who usually can be decent.  So, they start 2-0 before hitting reality and could get a break in conference play over the next 4 games and go 3-1 while being mediocre.  Then maybe the real season gets real and the drop the next four, but that have that savory croissant in week 11.

It could happen, would be pretty rare I think.  I think Vandy has a pretty solid team if their QB stays healthy, but they did have a front loaded schedule of pastries.

Now it gets pretty real, LSU Mizzou Texas Auburn UK Tennessee.  Yeah, they could go 1-5 with that, but I'd say 2-4 is more probable.  Are they one of Texas' rivals?  I think not.
Well they ain't Wofford that's for sure. 

Anyway, it's a darn good thing we get the Dores at home this year!  
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ManHawk

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2025, 11:07:14 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 14, 2025, 11:01:21 AM
According to Kelly Ford and the KFord Ratings, Nebraska has a solid chance to eclipse last year's output.

The regular-season finale is at home with Iowa on Black Friday. The Hawkeyes are 4-2, with wins over Albany, UMass, Rutgers, and Wisconsin and losses to Iowa State and Indiana. KFord gives Nebraska a 53% chance of winning the game, down 12%.

If you take every game with a better than 50% chance as a Nebraska win, then the Big Red are in line to go 9-3. KFord gives Nebraska a 53% chance to win at least nine games, which is 3% lower than before the Maryland win.
Usually if a team has a 53% chance to win each game,  I would assume they will win about half of them.   But maybe I am misunderstanding what you are saying.
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2025, 11:16:51 AM »
some games were more than 53%.  The Iowa game is actually 53%.  Northwestern is higher
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SFBadger96

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2025, 12:11:01 PM »
Poll voters like wins, and they don't like nuance. Nebraska is a B1G team with only one loss. Midseason that gets you ranked. I think Iowa is pretty darned good, if one-dimensional on offense. I'll be impressed if Nebraska beats them.
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FearlessF

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Re: Week 8 top-25 at a glance
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2025, 12:13:04 PM »
it's been a toss up game the past few seasons with the Hawks winning a close one.
Hopefully, the Huskers find a way like they did vs the Terps  - it's in Lincoln
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