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167939.pdf

During the past twelve years, NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks have sometimes been accurate (e.g. the 2008 and 2009 forecasts) but have also been criticized as not being skillful, especially after unsuccessful forecasts (such as 2006). Although a verification of Gray’s seasonal hurricane forecasts showed there was skill above climatology (Owens and Landsea 2003), no such work has been done to compare the NOAA outlooks to any benchmarks of skill or to those of any another forecast group. 2. 

In this study, NOAA seasonal hurricane outlooks are compared to forecasts issued by CSU, TSR and a benchmark of skill using the 5-yr running mean as a forecast. Overall, the May NOAA outlooks had slightly higher skill than the 5-yr mean and comparable skill to the other forecast groups. However, the August NOAA outlooks had considerably more skill than the 5-yr mean forecasts and generally were more accurate than forecasts issued by CSU or TSR, though those forecasts also had significant skill when compared to the 5-yr mean.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.


The above is from last year.  Now, it's obvious that having a 70% degree of confidence in a range that already is "12-17" means these predictions are pretty soft.  It looks to me like more of a crap shoot than anything.  Below is one 2024 prediction:

the CSU team is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 210 (171% of average). In comparison, the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123.

Note that 12-17 was considered a fairly light year, while 23 is magically now a very active year.  I could probably just randomly guess a figure and be about as close to reality.  Then of course there is the variable as to whether anything major hits some populated area and does damage, a lot of last year's storms went north.

99.9 percent of the people on this earth have never heard of a joule.

ARTICLE OF THE DAY: 

The Global Conveyor Belt
Thermohaline circulation refers to the deepwater circulation of the oceans and is primarily caused by differences in density between the waters of different regions. It is mainly a convection process in which cold, dense water formed in the polar regions sinks and flows slowly toward the equator. The circulation of ocean waters is vitally important in dispersing heat energy around the globe. Two factors determine the density of ocean water; one is temperature

ARTICLE OF THE DAY:

The Global Conveyor Belt
Thermohaline circulation refers to the deepwater circulation of the oceans and is primarily caused by differences in density between the waters of different regions. It is mainly a convection process in which cold, dense water formed in the polar regions sinks and flows slowly toward the equator. The circulation of ocean waters is vitally important in dispersing heat energy around the globe. Two factors determine the density of ocean water; one is temperature

Is the other one jewels?

99.9 percent of the people on this earth have never heard of a joule.

I imagine most have heard of calorie, though they might not all understand it.  A Joule is just the metric term for "Calorie", with a 4.4 factor attached.

Density is of course related to temperature.  But when discussing climate, heat becomes far more important when water is being compared with air or land.

I think if 99% of folks have never heard of Joules, those same folks should probably not be considered as having solid technical opinions about much of anything.  They likely conflate heat and temperature as being the same thing.

One can readily have the same substance at the same exact temperature and wildly different heat contents.

Water is a nice example.