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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9437 on: February 14, 2024, 07:28:35 AM »
The race to understand polar ice sheets | Knowable Magazine

It is POSSIBLE this thing spirals out of control quickly and shockingly and bad things happen.  I hope that possibility is remote.  Whatever rather lame efforts "we" have started to limit this are of course pathetic and mostly nonsensible.

Glaciologist Richard Alley of Penn State University has studied polar ice for more than 35 years. In the 1990s, his ice-core research shocked the world with the startling finding that the last Ice Age did not come to a gradual end, as long believed, but ended abruptly and violently, with temperatures rising sharply in three short years.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9438 on: February 14, 2024, 08:56:00 AM »
so, all the guys before him were wrong

was - is he really correct?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9439 on: February 14, 2024, 09:00:01 AM »
I'm not sure who before him was wrong, or published different findings, but maybe so.


longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9440 on: February 14, 2024, 09:58:13 AM »
so publishing an incorrect finding doesnt mean your wrong

interesting
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9441 on: February 14, 2024, 10:32:26 AM »
I still don't understand who published an incorrect finding here.  Folks do learn things that may contradict previous beliefs.  It happens.

Now, if someone did publish somewhere that the Ice Ages ended gradually, that would be a contrary finding, but I don't see evidence anyone did.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9442 on: February 14, 2024, 11:30:06 AM »
And without firsthand evidence, we may NOT be able to discern with 100% certainty how gradually the ice ages ended, and thus which is the correct and the incorrect finding. 

In this case they apparently found evidence from ice cores that better supports a rapid end to ice ages than a gradual end. But as with most things in science, it is a hypothesis based upon that evidence that could potentially be falsified by newer evidence or better understanding of what that evidence means.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9443 on: February 14, 2024, 11:33:23 AM »
Sure, every such finding is subject to review and further evidence and analysis.  Maybe he's wrong, I don't know of course.  It is a surprisingly finding.

Maybe it's currently a topic of heated debate and research.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9444 on: February 14, 2024, 11:39:05 AM »
I recall "back in the day" some HEATED discussions/seminars/publications/etc. about a problem in chemistry that amost led to fisticuffs in one incident.  The odd thing is that the issue wasn't all that important, it's was purely theoretical.  One side was championed by a professor at Purdue named Herb Brown, who was not liked by much of anyone.  The other side had a number of proponents.  Each would publish one finding, and the other would publish another.  It got rather amusing, to me anyway.

Brown's real point, he said later, was that folks were too eager to agree on a thing, and any junior faculty who disagreed couldn't get their stuff published.  Brown was well established (he later one a Nobel).  He also had a legion of Indian post docs in his group so he could crank out papers (and did).  No Americans wanted to work for him, apparently.  

I don't think it was ever really decided, though I think Brown's "side" lost out.  I had occasion to speak to him very briefly at a conference, he actually spoke to me first, I was two seats over, a young lad probably looking out of place.

I did think he made his overall point, which was a good reminder.  Consensus can be reached all too quickly because it's comfortable.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9445 on: February 14, 2024, 02:05:45 PM »
Don't like this at all. Send some water to the East Coast and South. This sucks for us.

Army Corps increasing Lake Okeechobee releases to Fort Myers-Sanibel area (msn.com)
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9446 on: February 14, 2024, 02:10:51 PM »
Sure, every such finding is subject to review and further evidence and analysis.  Maybe he's wrong, I don't know of course.  It is a surprisingly finding.

Maybe it's currently a topic of heated debate and research. 
And the more important bit about that article was that the discussion of ice ages was merely a mention of his past accomplishments. 

The bigger question--and I suggest everyone read it--is what happens to ice sheets as they melt? How quickly do they break off? 

Because as with most things related to climate change, if something big (like meters of sea level rise) happens slowly and gradually over two centuries, in many ways it's likely that we can adjust to it as a society with relatively minor dislocations that occur as economic shifts happening over generations. If that same something big happens over the course of a decade, it's a catastrophe. 

We want to understand which is which. 

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9447 on: February 14, 2024, 10:49:19 PM »
my issue is with the fact that new "findings" are presented by the consensus as fact or knowledge

and not as the latest  hypothesis

gives experts a bad name when things don't work out
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9448 on: February 14, 2024, 10:51:04 PM »
Don't like this at all. Send some water to the East Coast and South. This sucks for us.

Army Corps increasing Lake Okeechobee releases to Fort Myers-Sanibel area (msn.com)
easy fix, move millions of folks to North and South Dakotas for retirement

not many jobs, but gazillions of gallons of fresh clean water
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #9449 on: February 15, 2024, 05:24:17 AM »
my issue is with the fact that new "findings" are presented by the consensus as fact or knowledge

and not as the latest  hypothesis

gives experts a bad name when things don't work out
I don't see that, at all.  Maybe the reportage suggests it, but the scientists would not, in my experience.  Scientific "journalism" is not very good, and that is the source of information for most folks.  The original science publication would be replete with "maybes".


 

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