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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8344 on: July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 12, 2023, 02:44:35 PM
I'm not sure that I see any way that we could actually reduce the amount of water vapor in the air over any sustained period...
In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8345 on: July 12, 2023, 03:11:27 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM
In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.
Yep, and that's why we worry about things like positive feedback loops. 

I worry what happens if:

  • Warming continues, which increases the air's ability to hold water vapor.
  • More evaporation leads to more warming as water vapor is a GHG. 
  • More warming leads to things like the thawing of tundra, causing a release of a lot of CO2 and methane as millenia-frozen plant material decomposes. 
  • More warming leads to higher ocean temperatures, causing the ocean to release some of the sunk CO2 that it's taken out of the atmosphere of our emissions. 
  • CO2 and methane release cause more warming, which increases the air's ability to hold water vapor. 
  • Rinse and repeat.

We've gone from the level of CO2 that has existed in all of the interglacial warm periods of the last 800,000 years, up to a level not seen in over 4M years, and we've done it all in about 150 years, a blink in geological time. Oh, and we've spewed a lot of methane out too, to apparently higher levels than have been seen in 800,000 years. Can't leave that out. 


I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm pretty sure since the developed world is doing darn close to nothing about it, we're gonna find out. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8346 on: July 12, 2023, 03:18:23 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 12, 2023, 02:08:49 PM
Someone needs to tell Hawaii, the USVI's, Puerto Rico, etc. that they are now on their own.

Unless that bridge from California to India gets built, of course.


Did Biden Say There Are Plans To Build a New Railroad Across the Indian Ocean? | Snopes.com
of all the folks here..........
you might know the most about these things that have been around for centuries called boats
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8347 on: July 12, 2023, 03:22:17 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 01:51:19 PM
I don't see how that could matter, at all.  The limiting factor is temperature (and some wind currents perhaps).  
we could clog up the wind currents with huge windmills that generate green electricity!!!
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8348 on: July 12, 2023, 03:23:19 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 12, 2023, 02:48:14 PM
In theory, if we cooled the atmosphere, we could.  That would require dissipating a LOT of heat somewhere else (space).  We appear to be doing the reverse of that.
maybe now is the time to pop a hole in the Ozone layer
release some hot air!
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8349 on: July 12, 2023, 04:46:03 PM »
May be an image of rat, turtle, slow loris and text that says 'I'M GOING TO PLAY DEVIL'S ADVOCATE. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT IS. I'M GONNA BE KIND OF AN ASSHOLE, BUT FOR INTELLECTUAL PURPOSES. GO ON... POORLY DRAWN LINES'
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8350 on: July 13, 2023, 09:42:15 AM »
How much warming can we expect in the 21st century? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)

This is long, but the gist of it is this, according to this individual:

We can see in the graph that if RCP4.5 is the correct emissions scenario and the effective climate sensitivity is 3.1°C, then the temperature will rise by about 1.8°C between 1986-2005 and 2079-2099. To estimate the temperature rise from today until 2100, we subtract 18% from 1.8°C, resulting in an estimated increase of about 1.5°C.
Using instead Lewis22’s effective climate sensitivity of 2.16°C with the RCP4.5 scenario, we can see from the graph that the temperature increase will be approximately 1.25°C. This corresponds to a temperature rise of 1.0°C from today until 2100.
RCP3.4 is not included in the graph, but we can assume that the temperature increase for RCP3.4 will be a few tenths of a degree lower than for RCP4.5, so perhaps 0.7-0.8°C, which also agrees quite well with what Pielke Jr found (0.9°C) after we adjusted for the climate sensitivity from Lewis22.

The article also illustrates just a bit about how complex these models are, which to me is a concern.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8351 on: July 14, 2023, 08:09:31 AM »
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8352 on: July 14, 2023, 08:48:43 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 12, 2023, 03:18:23 PM
of all the folks here..........
you might know the most about these things that have been around for centuries called boats
Sure. Let's make travel to Hawaii take a week, rather than hours.
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8353 on: July 14, 2023, 09:14:24 AM »
too many hours for me by plane

a supersonic boom over the pacific wouldn't be too bad

Maui was great but once is enough for me
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8354 on: July 14, 2023, 09:15:40 AM »
I was surprised on our first trip to learn that Cincy to LAX was shorter than LAX to Kona.
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8355 on: July 14, 2023, 09:19:29 AM »
shorter in time?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8356 on: July 14, 2023, 09:35:46 AM »
It's about 4.5 hours Cincy to LAX and nearly 6 hours LAX to Kona.

You're fighting some headwinds usually, so it's shorter on the return, usually.

Hawaii is OUT THERE.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8357 on: July 14, 2023, 10:13:41 AM »
yup, after my 2nd trip with the daughters, I told them there were nice beaches much closer

Went to St. Pete's beach the next time
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