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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8246 on: July 11, 2023, 03:47:11 PM »
Lots of discussion on the results but little discussion on the cause
I think the discussion is more about the impact of climate change than the cause.  I don't think it was meant to go into the specifics of what causes CC.  That could take a while, and would probably bore much of the audience.

I still hesitate to conflate high temperatures in some places with Climate Change.  It gets hot in summer, duh.  Now when we might see valid statistical evidence for getting warmer, then I would be on board.  As I noted, it can be unusually hot in one region and unusually cool in another.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8247 on: July 11, 2023, 03:50:16 PM »
but the key question is

is the carbon and methane theory the only possible cause or could there be other causes as yet undiscovered
Climatologists have explored other causes, principally variations in solar output and natural variability in climate (things like micro-Malinkovitch Cycles etc.).  There is some discussion about solar output here and there, but the "consensus" seems to be that isn't enough of a factor.  One rather interesting, but not widely accepted concept, is that "we" are headed into a cooling period that is being offset by warming due to CO2.  I have no opinion on that one except that it isn't widely accepted.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8248 on: July 11, 2023, 04:19:52 PM »
but the key question is

is the carbon and methane theory the only possible cause or could there be other causes as yet undiscovered
It's science. Very few things are ever "the only possible cause", but the job of science is to try to best understand the world and determine what the most probable causes are based on evidence, experimentation, logic, and study. 

Is there another possible theory? Of course. Give me a 12-pack and I'll spin out a couple dozen possible theories. 

Right now, greenhouse gas theory that best explains what we see, and the more we study, the more that its predictions seem to be being fulfilled. 

But I'm sure if you are in the position where you don't want to accept that, you can pin your hopes on it being something else "as yet undiscovered."

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8249 on: July 11, 2023, 04:26:33 PM »
It's science. Very few things are ever "the only possible cause", but the job of science is to try to best understand the world and determine what the most probable causes are based on evidence, experimentation, logic, and study.

Is there another possible theory? Of course. Give me a 12-pack and I'll spin out a couple dozen possible theories.

Right now, greenhouse gas theory that best explains what we see, and the more we study, the more that its predictions seem to be being fulfilled.

But I'm sure if you are in the position where you don't want to accept that, you can pin your hopes on it being something else "as yet undiscovered."
Please flick that chip off your shoulder

Yes Im skeptical that 120 ppm is causing the majority of CC but I have no hopes one way or another

bottom line no one has proven that man made co2 and methane causes CC only that it appears to be the case

when science proves it then Im on board

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8250 on: July 11, 2023, 05:04:05 PM »
That's not really how it works.

"Science" is merely the most likely explanation based on the available evidence.  If you're waiting for more evidence, that's fine, but unlikely to happen anytime soon...which makes it a convenient holding pattern opportunity.
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One fact that is evident is not that the planet doesn't ebb and flow temperature-wise, it's that since humanity started making it's contribution to the skies, the rate of temp change is unnaturally fast.  Nature adapts slowly and we're hitting the fast-forward button.
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There's nothing wrong with waiting for more evidence, but only if it's done in good faith.  And just to be frank, longhorn, anytime you mention skepticism, I'm skeptical of you.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8251 on: July 11, 2023, 05:30:50 PM »
That's not really how it works.

"Science" is merely the most likely explanation based on the available evidence.  If you're waiting for more evidence, that's fine, but unlikely to happen anytime soon...which makes it a convenient holding pattern opportunity.
.
One fact that is evident is not that the planet doesn't ebb and flow temperature-wise, it's that since humanity started making it's contribution to the skies, the rate of temp change is unnaturally fast.  Nature adapts slowly and we're hitting the fast-forward button.
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There's nothing wrong with waiting for more evidence, but only if it's done in good faith.  And just to be frank, longhorn, anytime you mention skepticism, I'm skeptical of you.
oh well its a heavy burden but Ill just have to try to go on living

do you have any idea just how small 120 ppm is

its like adding 1 oz to 78 gallons and expecting that to make a difference

so yes until some kind of proof comes along Ill just remain skeptical

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8252 on: July 11, 2023, 05:57:29 PM »
I think one major problem is, you just don't seem to understand how particle densities work.  Extremely small particle densities can have incredibly strong effects.

25 ppm of arsine gas is lethal with extended exposure.  Do you have any idea how small 25 ppm is?  It's like adding 1/4 oz to 78 gallons and expecting it to make a difference.  Which, of course, it does.  Because it will KILL you.




betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8253 on: July 11, 2023, 05:59:02 PM »
bottom line no one has proven that man made co2 and methane causes CC only that it appears to be the case

when science proves it then Im on board
"Proof" is an interesting word in science. It's mostly used when you can run experiments in closed systems, removing as many extraneous variables as possible, in order to isolate an effect that you're looking to demonstrate. 

We *know* that "greenhouse gases" trap infrared energy. That is 100% proven in closed system experiments. 

However the Earth is not a closed system. We can't run an experiment with 50 identical Earths where we emit different amounts of CO2/methane and watch the results. We only have the one. It's a complex system. We can't easily remove extraneous variables. So "proof" is basically off the table. 

What we can do is observe, and try to build the model of what happens to the output with certain inputs, and then what we can do is predict what will happen if we keep adding those same inputs. Right now, what we're seeing is that the predictions are matching the model. 

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8254 on: July 11, 2023, 06:04:17 PM »
I think one major problem is, you just don't seem to understand how particle densities work.  Extremely small particle densities can have incredibly strong effects.

25 ppm of arsine gas is lethal with extended exposure.  Do you have any idea how small 25 ppm is?  It's like adding 1/4 oz to 78 gallons and expecting it to make a difference.  Which, of course, it does.  Because it will KILL you.




yes I thought of that but Im still unconvinced that its causing the entire earth to warm

just chalk it up to a non scientist view point which I realize is probably useless but thats just how I feel
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8255 on: July 11, 2023, 06:07:02 PM »
Well you sure can't argue science against feelings.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8256 on: July 11, 2023, 06:08:26 PM »
Don’t tell me what my responsibility is. I’m an artist. My responsibility is to write songs that express what I feel. I don’t work for you, I don’t think for you, and I don’t belong to anybody...[Bob  Dylan]

May be an image of 1 person and guitar
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8257 on: July 11, 2023, 06:10:18 PM »
"Proof" is an interesting word in science. It's mostly used when you can run experiments in closed systems, removing as many extraneous variables as possible, in order to isolate an effect that you're looking to demonstrate.

We *know* that "greenhouse gases" trap infrared energy. That is 100% proven in closed system experiments.

However the Earth is not a closed system. We can't run an experiment with 50 identical Earths where we emit different amounts of CO2/methane and watch the results. We only have the one. It's a complex system. We can't easily remove extraneous variables. So "proof" is basically off the table.

What we can do is observe, and try to build the model of what happens to the output with certain inputs, and then what we can do is predict what will happen if we keep adding those same inputs. Right now, what we're seeing is that the predictions are matching the model.

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

Has anyone even tried to do this with a manufactured earth like atmosphere?
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8258 on: July 11, 2023, 06:11:34 PM »
“Not that I condone fascism, or any -ism for that matter. -Ism's in my opinion are not good. A person should not believe in an -ism, he should believe in himself. I quote John Lennon, "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me." Good point there. After all, he was the walrus. I could be the walrus. I'd still have to bum rides off people.” - Ferris Bueller



OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #8259 on: July 11, 2023, 06:12:23 PM »

So you'll never have 100% proof. The question is what level of confidence you need to have to make behavioral changes. 90%? 95%? 99%?

This.
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"Proof" is simply enough evidence to convince enough scientists to come to a consensus conclusion based on existing evidence.
If no amount of evidence is "enough" for you, then longhorn can claim skepticism while simply covering his eyes and ears to the general consensus.
But we know what it actually is.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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