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Anticipating Future Sea Levels (nasa.gov)

The RCP 8.5 scenario has recently been rejected as highly unlikely, the RCP 4,5 projection is the baseline estimate, but the IPCC.  So, we'd be looking at a rise in MSL of about 1.5 meters by 2300.  And 1.5 meters is about 5 feet.  That wouldn't be desirable at all, but it doesn't make Orlando a port city.  The hysteria at times gets amusing, to me.  Folks get their information from movies instead of the IPCC.  (I don't fault anyone for criticizing the IPCC, but for climate activists, that should be the gold standard.)



Note that IF we reach net zero by 2100 MSL rise is still nearly a meter.

It's quite difficult to perceive because of normal tidal and wind fluctuations, and erosion, sand displacement, etc.

You still have to account for tides.  These are calculations based on predicted glacier melt rates and thermal expansion of water.

TS.C.5.2 The exposure of many coastal populations and
associated development to sea level rise is high, increasing risks,
and is concentrated in and around coastal cities and settlements
(virtually certain). High population growth and urbanisation in
low-lying coastal zones will be the major driver of increasing exposure
to sea level rise in the coming decades (high confidence). By 2030, 108–
116 million people will be exposed to sea level rise in Africa (compared
to 54 million in 2000), increasing to 190–245 million by 2060 (medium
confidence). By 2050, more than a billion people located in low-lying
cities and settlements will be at risk from coast-specific climate
hazards, influenced by coastal geomorphology, geographical location
and adaptation action


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maybe tell folks not to move there and build cities??

well, stay at least a couple meters above current sea level

I love people who are only skeptical about things they don't agree with.  

Climate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now | UNFCCC

According to the report, the combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement could put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.

Today’s report also shows current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Last year’s analysis showed projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. However, this year's analysis shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2018 report indicated that CO2 emissions needed to be cut 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. The latest science from the IPCC released earlier this year uses 2019 as a baseline, indicating that GHG emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030. This is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.


Bear in mind that countries are also not getting close to meeting their promises anyway.  It's a lot easier to have some meeting at some resort and agree to some future commitment than actually meet said commitment.  Then folks post things like the above.  IT's NOT ENOUGH!!!!  Of course it's not, nor are the commitments being met anyway.

What about folks who post bizarre hyperbole about the future of Florida?

Admittedly, I started that. OAM just ran with it. 

And it was a reprise of a discussion that we had weeks ago after I'd found an article discussing that ice sheets could potentially move in the sea much more quickly than previous estimates and how that could affect the West Antarctic (IIRC) ice sheet. Which could raise sea level by 3.3m itself if it slid into the sea. Given that we've discussed how much of Florida (at least the highly populated areas) are below that level, it's a pretty massive economic dislocation if it were to happen. 

However, at this time it's not seriously projected by any scientists that it WILL happen within hundreds of years.