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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7308 on: April 17, 2023, 11:34:51 AM »
I do not agree at all that only 4% of the increase in CO2 levels is man made, or that the increase is only 4%.  I'd call that completely false.

Carbon dioxide now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa.gov)


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7309 on: April 17, 2023, 11:37:38 AM »
The number can be easily looked up and weve already discussed it and you agreed its less then 4%

It matters because if man contributes less then 4% of the worlds co2 its very hard to believe its the main cause of climate change
Yes, we've already discussed it.

If natural processes produce 100% of the Earth's "normal" CO2, and then man adds 4% to that such that every single year the CO2 output increases to 104% of the natural value, do you not understand how that accumulates over time?

We have no record in "modern" pre-human history of CO2 ever exceeding 300 ppm, and we're now at 412 ppm, with that sharp rise being exactly in the last 150 years since human industrialization?

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7310 on: April 17, 2023, 11:40:40 AM »
OK, sure, 4% PER YEAR is reasonable, and as noted, potentially very bad.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7311 on: April 17, 2023, 12:00:45 PM »

If natural processes produce 100% of the Earth's "normal" CO2, and then man adds 4% to that such that every single year the CO2 output increases to 104% of the natural value, do you not understand how that accumulates over time?

We have no record in "modern" pre-human history of CO2 ever exceeding 300 ppm, and we're now at 412 ppm, with that sharp rise being exactly in the last 150 years since human industrialization?
not only is mans portion of 4 percent accumulating but the other 96% is also accumulating so this brings us back to why is mans 4% the main cause of climate change when theres another 96% put there by nature
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7312 on: April 17, 2023, 12:02:26 PM »
I don't know of any evidence this is anywhere near true.  The CO2 increase is nearly all from burning fossil fuels.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7313 on: April 17, 2023, 12:10:11 PM »
as far as you know
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7314 on: April 17, 2023, 12:10:28 PM »
I don't know of any evidence this is anywhere near true.  The CO2 increase is nearly all from burning fossil fuels.
thats not the point

if the increase was much larger caused by man then its a little more believable but only a 4% amount is just not reasonable
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7315 on: April 17, 2023, 01:47:26 PM »
not only is mans portion of 4 percent accumulating but the other 96% is also accumulating so this brings us back to why is mans 4% the main cause of climate change when theres another 96% put there by nature
You're aware that CO2 is not just pushed into the atmosphere and sits there, right? That we have a carbon cycle? Animals engage in respiration, taking in O2 and expelling CO2. Plants photosynthesize, taking in CO2 and expelling O2.

Plants don't care whether the CO2 is man-made or natural. They take it in, in whatever proportion it exists in the atmosphere. So if CO2 is 300 ppm in our atmosphere and 12 ppm is man-made, they'll take in 96% natural and 4% man made. If CO2 is 400 ppm and 16 ppm is man-made, they'll take in 96% natural and 4% man-made.

The key is (per the graph I posted a while back), for the last million years, CO2 in the atmosphere has ebbed and flowed between 250 and 300 ppm. In the 150 years since human industrialization, it is now >400 ppm.

I would think that rather than skepticism that man and fossil fuels is the cause, it would seem like the easiest thing to believe is that our actions burning LOTS of fossil fuels is the cause and apply skepticism to any claim otherwise. Occam's razor, right?

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7316 on: April 17, 2023, 02:24:11 PM »


The key is (per the graph I posted a while back), for the last million years, CO2 in the atmosphere has ebbed and flowed between 250 and 300 ppm. In the 150 years since human industrialization, it is now >400 ppm.


This is subject to scientific judgement from evidence from bubbles in old ice etc

the fact is no one really knows for sure cause they werent there for all 4.5 billion years of this planets life

basically the whole theory is based on the earth is getting warmer over the last 150 years and thats when man started the indust revolution so it must be mans fault never mind that less then 4% of the earths total co2 is caused by man it must still be his fault cause thats the only thing thats changed

Im saying we are assuming mans actions are the cause because we cant figure out any other explanation

again Im skeptical because 4% of the total co2 seems pretty small to me
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7317 on: April 17, 2023, 02:28:38 PM »
I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  The basic models on CO2 and the greenhouse effect are quite well understood, though the elaborated models are, in my view, much more speculative.  They could be, in fact, they definitely are "wrong", but they could be wrong in either direction.  "All models are wrong, some models are useful."

The increase from 280 ppm to 410+ ppm is nearly all due to man's actions.  That looks like a significant increase to me.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7318 on: April 17, 2023, 02:41:07 PM »
I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  

https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/01/the-global-co2-rise-the-facts-exxon-and-the-favorite-denial-tricks/


Quote
Die Welt presented a common number-trick by climate deniers (readers can probably point to some english-language examples):
Quote
In fact, carbon dioxide, which is blamed for climate warming, has only a volume share of 0.04 percent in the atmosphere. And of these 0.04 percent CO2, 95 percent come from natural sources, such as volcanoes or decomposition processes in nature. The human CO2 content in the air is thus only 0.0016 percent.
The claim “95 percent from natural sources” and the “0.0016 percent” are simply wrong (neither does the arithmetic add up – how would 5% of 0.04 be 0.0016?). These (and similar – sometimes you read 97% from natural sources) numbers have been making the rounds in climate denier circles for many years (and have repeatedly been rebutted by scientists). They present a simple mix-up of turnover and profit, in economic terms. The land ecosystems have, of course, a high turnover of carbon, but (unlike humans) do not add any net CO2 to the atmosphere. Any biomass which decomposes must first have grown – the CO2 released during rotting was first taken from the atmosphere by photosynthesis. This is a cycle. Hey, perhaps that’s why it’s called the carbon cycle!

That is why one way to reduce emissions is the use of bioenergy, such as heating with wood (at least when it’s done in a sustainable manner – many mistakes can be made with bioenergy). Forests only increase the amount of CO2 in the air when they are felled, burnt or die. This is immediately understood by looking at a schematic of the carbon cycle, Fig. 3.


Fig. 3 Scheme of the global carbon cycle. Values for the carbon stocks are given in Gt C (ie, billions of tonnes of carbon) (bold numbers). Values for average carbon fluxes are given in Gt C per year (normal numbers). Source: WBGU 2006 . (A similar graph can also be found at Wikipedia.) Since this graph was prepared, anthropogenic emissions and the atmospheric CO2 content have increased further, see Figs 4 and 5, but I like the simplicity of this graph.

If one takes as the total emissions a “natural” part (60 GtC from soils + 60 GtC from land plants) and the 7 GtC fossil emissions as anthropogenic part, the anthropogenic portion is about 5% (7 of 127 billion tons of carbon) as cited in the Welt article. This percentage is highly misleading, however, since it ignores that the land biosphere does not only release 120 GtC but also absorbs 122 GtC by photosynthesis, which means that net 2 GtC is removed from the atmosphere. Likewise, the ocean removes around 2 GtC. To make any sense, the net emissions by humans have to be compared with the net uptake by oceans and forests and atmosphere, not with the turnover rate of a cycle, which is an irrelevant comparison. And not just irrelevant – it becomes plain wrong when that 5% number is then misunderstood as the human contribution to the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

The natural earth system thus is by no means a source of CO2 for the atmosphere, but it is a sink! Of the 7 GtC, which we blow into the atmosphere every year, only 3 remain there. 2 are absorbed by the ocean and 2 by the forests. This means that in the atmosphere and in the land biosphere and in the ocean the amount of stored carbon is increasing. And the source of all this additional carbon is the fact that we extract loads of fossil carbon from the earth’s crust and add it to the system. That’s already clear from the fact that we add twice as much to the atmosphere as is needed to explain the full increase there – that makes it obvious that the natural Earth system cannot possibly be adding more CO2 but rather is continually removing about half of our CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.

The system was almost exactly in equilibrium before humans intervened. That is why the CO2 concentration in the air was almost constant for several thousand years (Figure 2). This means that the land ecosystems took up 120 GtC and returned 120 GtC (the exact numbers don’t matter here, what matters is that they are the same). The increased uptake of CO2 by forests and oceans of about 2 GtC per year each is already a result of the human emissions, which has added enormous amounts of CO2 to the system. The ocean has started to take up net CO2 from the atmosphere through gas exchange at the sea surface: because the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is now higher than in the surface ocean, there is net flux of CO2 into the sea. And because trees take up CO2 by photosynthesis and can do this more easily if you offer them more CO2 in the air, they have started to photosynthesize more and thus take up a bit more CO2 than is released by decomposing old biomass. (To what extent and for how long the land biosphere will remain a carbon sink is open to debate, however: this will depend on the extent to which the global ecosystems come under stress by global warming, e.g. by increasing drought and wildfires.)


Essentially 120 gigatons of CO2 are emitted naturally every year. We add another 7 gigatons (5%). The earth has ability to sink 4 of those 7 gigatons, which means that we have an annual accumulation of about 3 gigatons CO2. 

Where @longhorn320 is missing this is that he's focusing on that 5% number, not focusing on the fact that the entire system emits 127 gigatons but can only sink 124 gigatons. At that point it doesn't matter that it's only 5%, what matters is that there are no natural processes capable of pulling the entirety of the extra emissions out of the atmosphere. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7319 on: April 17, 2023, 02:44:16 PM »
Plant more trees and leave 'em alone.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7320 on: April 17, 2023, 02:46:34 PM »
Geesh, thanks for clearing that up.  The "deniers" often use fake numbers and really bad "analysis" to prop up their case, which is suggestive that they don't have a real case.

(I think there is a case to be made, but not this way, at all, this is lying.)


longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #7321 on: April 17, 2023, 02:47:24 PM »
I have no clue where this "4%" comes from.  The basic models on CO2 and the greenhouse effect are quite well understood, though the elaborated models are, in my view, much more speculative.  They could be, in fact, they definitely are "wrong", but they could be wrong in either direction.  "All models are wrong, some models are useful."

The increase from 280 ppm to 410+ ppm is nearly all due to man's actions.  That looks like a significant increase to me.
I can reference several sources that support this

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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