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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6636 on: November 01, 2022, 06:33:40 PM »
plenty of leaves on the golf course

We need rain, not snow

78 degrees here
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6637 on: November 02, 2022, 05:07:37 PM »
As the world nears its tipping point, what can we expect at COP27? | The Hill

A consistent message I've posted here for a while it "Get real.".  Countries are not going to meet their commiments.  If the models are about right, we're going to zoom well past 2°C.  Folks keep proclaiming a crisis and saying "throw more money at it", and the result is more meetings, more pledges, more money thrown at it in rather unplanned fashions for obvious reasons, and then molar gnashing.

We're going to hear more of this, I suspect, not less.  And I suspect "we" will somehow manage to throw more money at it with very little to show for it.  I've read estimates about a GROWING market for petroleum well past 2050.  Maybe coal usage will drop some, hopefully.  There is no real plan because it's impossible.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6638 on: November 03, 2022, 11:34:05 AM »
The climate ‘crisis’ isn’t what it used to be | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)

Summary:  The climate “catastrophe” isn’t what it used to be. Circa 2013 with publication of the IPCC AR5 Report, RCP8.5 was regarded as the business-as-usual emissions scenario, with expected warming of 4 to 5 oC by 2100. Now there is growing acceptance that RCP8.5 is implausible, and RCP4.5 is arguably the current business-as-usual emissions scenario. Only a few years ago, an emissions trajectory that followed RCP4.5 with 2 to 3 oC warming was regarded as climate policy success. As limiting warming to 2 oC seems to be in reach (now deemed to be the “threshold of catastrophe”), the goal posts were moved in 2018 to reduce the warming target to 1.5 oC. Climate catastrophe rhetoric now seems linked to extreme weather events, most of which are difficult to identify any role for human-caused climate change in increasing either their intensity or frequency.
The main stream media is currently awash with articles from prominent journalists on how the global warming threat less than we thought.  Here are some prominent articles:
David Wallace-Wells is one of the most interesting journalists writing in the climate space.  In 2017, he wrote  a 2017 New York Magazine article titled “The Uninhabitable Earth”, with subtitle: “Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak—sooner than you think.”  Not long after publication of his book in 2019 entitled The Uninhabitable Earth, David Wallace-Wells made this statement: “Anyone, including me, who has built their understanding on what level of warming is likely this century on that RCP8.5 scenario should probably revise that understanding in a less alarmist direction.” DWW scores HUGE number of points with me for quickly adjusting his priors with the growing amount evidence that RCP8.5 is implausible.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6639 on: November 03, 2022, 11:44:29 AM »
The policy implications of all this is enormous.  Unfortunately I suspect that the COP27 will focus too much on emissions reductions (which aren’t working and wont impact the climate in any event), and not enough on supporting development and adaptation for developing countries and most importantly supporting development in Africa by allowing them to benefit from their fossil fuels (other than by selling them to Europe).  With regards to the later, a shout out to Rose Mustiso’s recent Nature publication; Rose is my favorite African activist and thinker on this topic.

 

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6640 on: November 03, 2022, 11:57:57 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 11:44:29 AM
The policy implications of all this is enormous.  Unfortunately I suspect that the COP27 will focus too much on emissions reductions (which aren’t working and wont impact the climate in any event), and not enough on supporting development and adaptation for developing countries and most importantly supporting development in Africa by allowing them to benefit from their fossil fuels (other than by selling them to Europe).  With regards to the later, a shout out to Rose Mustiso’s recent Nature publication; Rose is my favorite African activist and thinker on this topic.

 


well once again using your logic climate change has not affected my life at all so it must not exist
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6641 on: November 03, 2022, 12:06:59 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 11:57:57 AM
well once again using your logic climate change has not affected my life at all so it must not exist
That is not my logic at all.  I don't know where you got that presumption.

Plenty of things have not impacted my life and certainly exist.
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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6642 on: November 03, 2022, 01:22:17 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 12:06:59 PM
That is not my logic at all.  I don't know where you got that presumption.

Plenty of things have not impacted my life and certainly exist.

the fact that your rights are being threatened has not affected your life so you are not concerned so why are you concerned about climate change which also has not affected your life
« Last Edit: November 03, 2022, 04:22:56 PM by longhorn320 »
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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6643 on: November 03, 2022, 03:22:14 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on November 03, 2022, 01:22:17 PM
the fact that your rights are being threatened has not affected your life so you are not concerned so why are you concerned about climate change whick also has not affected your life
I never said any such thing, at all, ever, nor implied anything remotely akin to that.

And I'm really not that concerned about climate change either, I am more interested in what is likely to happen.  I pretty much agree with this lady who used to be head of the climate science department at Tech.  I find her stuff very interesting.
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ELA

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6644 on: November 03, 2022, 03:51:07 PM »
Working in the energy sector, rising gas prices have actually helped my career, so apparently they are a good thing?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6645 on: November 03, 2022, 03:59:59 PM »
They are good for some, bad for most.
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ELA

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6646 on: November 03, 2022, 04:21:39 PM »
Exactly.  So if climate change hasn't directly impacted you, you should be good with it, I should be voting for higher gas prices
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6647 on: November 03, 2022, 04:28:45 PM »
Quote from: ELA on November 03, 2022, 04:21:39 PM
Exactly.  So if climate change hasn't directly impacted you, you should be good with it, I should be voting for higher gas prices
I disagree entirely, for obvious reasons.
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ELA

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6648 on: November 03, 2022, 04:32:13 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 03, 2022, 04:28:45 PM
I disagree entirely, for obvious reasons.
Me too, it was just a counter to an above point
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy
« Reply #6649 on: November 03, 2022, 04:37:13 PM »
The good news is that CC appears now to be less dire than had been predicted (by some).  It could still be not great of course.

The bad news, I think, is we'll still throw money at nonexistent "solutions" that make no difference.

And convene large meetings to talk about it.

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