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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4942 on: June 23, 2021, 09:41:04 AM »
The dude in the video is saying what I've been saying. 

Using kids to espouse some technical topic is twaddle.

Ha, he's talking about having goals but no plans.  Ha.


I liked his point of not having a way of evaluating todays actions makes fighting climate change harder to deal with
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4943 on: June 23, 2021, 09:53:41 AM »
Well, we can measure CO2 levels precisely, I'm confident of that.  We can estimate CO2 production by country with decent precision.  So, minimally we could tell if CO2 generation is starting to drop (it isn't, and won't).

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

ANYTHING the US proposes would amount to at most a tenth of a degree C by 2050, at most, if the models are correct.  We can't measure that.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4944 on: June 23, 2021, 11:30:03 AM »
Well, we can measure CO2 levels precisely, I'm confident of that.  We can estimate CO2 production by country with decent precision.  So, minimally we could tell if CO2 generation is starting to drop (it isn't, and won't).

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

ANYTHING the US proposes would amount to at most a tenth of a degree C by 2050, at most, if the models are correct.  We can't measure that.
Yes we know where we are now but to evaluate the effect of any changes in how we do things we have to compare it to models of future emissions

The farther out these models go the more uncertain these models are

because of this we are not able to evaluate the real effect of any changes we do now to what we predict in the future
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4945 on: June 23, 2021, 11:57:35 AM »
We could tell only that CO2 levels had stabilized, if they did.  (They won't.)

The connection between that KNOWN and changes in global temperature are rather less certain, with a large element of doubt, as noted, the further one goes out.  These models are amazingly complex, I've looked at them, many terms, many coefficients, some of which are with exponents, and the only way to contrive them is to try and ensure they "back predict" what we think has happened to date.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4946 on: June 23, 2021, 12:57:33 PM »
We could tell only that CO2 levels had stabilized, if they did.  (They won't.)

The connection between that KNOWN and changes in global temperature are rather less certain, with a large element of doubt, as noted, the further one goes out.  These models are amazingly complex, I've looked at them, many terms, many coefficients, some of which are with exponents, and the only way to contrive them is to try and ensure they "back predict" what we think has happened to date.
This planet is 4.5 billion years old

good luck with that

its amazing that earth has managed to warm up and cool down many many times before man existed

how in the world did earth manage this without man's help

and what ever forces were at work in nature to cause climate change prior to man has just taken a holiday and is leaving it up to man to carry on
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4947 on: June 23, 2021, 01:16:53 PM »
This planet is 4.5 billion years old

and measurements and record keeping have been decent for maybe the past 200 years???
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4948 on: June 23, 2021, 01:18:09 PM »
and measurements and record keeping have been decent for maybe the past 200 years???
80 years at best.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4949 on: June 23, 2021, 02:19:22 PM »
Ths issue is not about natural variability, which is known and real.  The issue is about how humans may be forcing it into something that otherwise would not be happening, how bad that could be, and what if anything we can do about it.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4950 on: June 23, 2021, 02:43:04 PM »
Ths issue is not about natural variability, which is known and real.  The issue is about how humans may be forcing it into something that otherwise would not be happening, how bad that could be, and what if anything we can do about it.
and since we really dont know what natural variability truly is we can not possibly know how much man is causing climate change

all we know is there is increased co2 much of this increase might be due to man but what we dont know is what might also be causing climate change and to what extent this change is normal for earth
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4951 on: June 23, 2021, 02:55:47 PM »
I think we have decent records of natural variability, things like tree rings and the like.  We know about Malinkovitch cycles.  We think sun spots may play a role as yet not understood, at times, but that one is a bit dicey.  I think we're pretty confident there was a cooling preriod 1550-1850 at least in the northern hemisphere, and a warming period around 1,000 AD.  We know about the various ice ages.

Folks who study this for a living claim the planet is heating up faster than it would "normally", and we know CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we know its levels are going higher.

I'm not so confident in the various models, in part because there are too many of them.  The could be about right though.

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4952 on: June 23, 2021, 03:01:16 PM »
I think we have decent records of natural variability, things like tree rings and the like.  We know about Malinkovitch cycles.  We think sun spots may play a role as yet not understood, at times, but that one is a bit dicey.  I think we're pretty confident there was a cooling preriod 1550-1850 at least in the northern hemisphere, and a warming period around 1,000 AD.  We know about the various ice ages.

Folks who study this for a living claim the planet is heating up faster than it would "normally", and we know CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and we know its levels are going higher.

I'm not so confident in the various models, in part because there are too many of them.  The could be about right though.
cooling period 1550 to 1850 covers 500 years so only a little less the 4.5 billion years left to figure out

folks claiming this planet is experiencing anything out of normal could not possibly know that
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4953 on: June 23, 2021, 04:00:35 PM »
cooling period 1550 to 1850 covers 500 years so only a little less the 4.5 billion years left to figure out

folks claiming this planet is experiencing anything out of normal could not possibly know that
The only real time we need to know about is the roughly 10K years under which human civilization flourished.

We're not going to hurt the planet in any appreciable manner. It's seen way worse than us. 

The question is whether we destabilize the climate to the extent that we can no longer sustain the agriculture necessary to feed >7.5B people. The question is whether economic and social dislocation due to climate change will spur wars and unrest. 

The planet doesn't give a %&#^ about us. We're a bad rash to the Earth, not an existential threat. But we care if it will continue to support our way of life. 

longhorn320

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4954 on: June 23, 2021, 04:34:45 PM »
The only real time we need to know about is the roughly 10K years under which human civilization flourished.

We're not going to hurt the planet in any appreciable manner. It's seen way worse than us.

The question is whether we destabilize the climate to the extent that we can no longer sustain the agriculture necessary to feed >7.5B people. The question is whether economic and social dislocation due to climate change will spur wars and unrest.

The planet doesn't give a %&#^ about us. We're a bad rash to the Earth, not an existential threat. But we care if it will continue to support our way of life.
you are acting like its up to man and I dont think it is

the bold up above reflects my point exactly
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #4955 on: June 23, 2021, 04:50:24 PM »
you are acting like its up to man and I dont think it is

the bold up above reflects my point exactly
If you're saying that man's activity can't really make much of a dent in the climate, then I understand where you're coming from. If that's the case, then it really doesn't matter if we emit CO2 or not.

I don't believe that's the case, but I understand that argument.

However what I'm responding to is your point about what is "normal" for the Earth in a 4.5B year life. 

What is normal for the Earth isn't important to us. Whether the Earth is capable of sustaining us is. 

In Earth's "normal" history we've seen five mass extinctions: https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinctions/

That's within the realm of "normal" for the Earth. 

 

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