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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Mdot21

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2324 on: May 08, 2020, 04:45:20 PM »

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2325 on: May 08, 2020, 04:48:11 PM »
Actually he didn't,just covered for his posse
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2326 on: May 08, 2020, 04:48:33 PM »
Warmer ocean temperatures should generate more and stronger hurricanes, but we don't know how many more and how much stronger, obviously.  It could be the impact is say a tenth of a hurricane a year, which would not be noticeable.  Slower moving hurricanes will drop more rain over a set area and cause problems of that ilk.

Global climate is enormously complex and my "basic take" is that it is far too complex to model with much certainty.  And I think there is some chance that climate change turns out to be worse than the models project, as well as better.  I also think we're going to run the experiment and find out.  Thus far, the hard evidence for a warming climate is perhaps not as strong as one might think and could be viewed as natural variability.  I don't think that is the case.

But, it is difficult to have much confidence in the models.  And I hope they are wrong.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2327 on: May 08, 2020, 04:53:33 PM »
Temperature has been changing for millions of years. It's not gonna stop, whether that be up, or down.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2328 on: May 08, 2020, 05:03:07 PM »
https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change

I read her blog off and on.  I find it interesting, and confusing at times, the gist of it is this is too complicated to model.

Advocates for action say we shouldn't run that experiment on our planet. Curry's response?

"Well, I think the experiment is going to happen whether people say we should run it or not. We're not going to convince China and India and other developing countries not to burn fossil fuels."

"I walk to work, I drive a Prius, I'm a fanatic about turning lights off and keeping air conditioning high and heating low, so I try to personally minimize my own carbon footprint. But in terms of telling other people what to do, I don't have any big answers."

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2329 on: May 08, 2020, 05:24:51 PM »
Adjusted for how they were counted "back in the day".  We would not have known about some hurricanes for example that never made landfall and stayed way out of the shipping lanes.
so, they just guessed and added a few?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2330 on: May 08, 2020, 06:04:54 PM »
I imagine they looked at hurricane trends once satellites were up and running and calculated how many could have been missing in the past.

I don't know the specific methodology used.

ELA

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2331 on: May 08, 2020, 06:06:48 PM »
Actually he didn't,just covered for his posse
Vice versa

MarqHusker

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2332 on: May 08, 2020, 08:37:39 PM »
People frantically covering up flowers this evening.   Gonna break a 73 year record low temp tonight and get down to 27.

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2333 on: May 08, 2020, 09:31:47 PM »
I have hostas left from the ex-wife and some left by the ex-GF

not covering anything

not real big on things I have to mow around
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2334 on: May 08, 2020, 10:34:55 PM »

https://www.npr.org/2013/08/22/213894792/uncertain-science-judith-currys-take-on-climate-change

I read her blog off and on.  I find it interesting, and confusing at times, the gist of it is this is too complicated to model.

Advocates for action say we shouldn't run that experiment on our planet. Curry's response?

"Well, I think the experiment is going to happen whether people say we should run it or not. We're not going to convince China and India and other developing countries not to burn fossil fuels."

"I walk to work, I drive a Prius, I'm a fanatic about turning lights off and keeping air conditioning high and heating low, so I try to personally minimize my own carbon footprint. But in terms of telling other people what to do, I don't have any big answers."
I'm not going to argue whether it's too late or not, because I think that's a moot point now. This article is 7 years old. A lot has changed since then, especially economically and technologically.

I've said it all before, and the pandemic has only exacerbated and accelerated the inevitable demise and eventually oil & gas. Renewables are going to win out in power generation, and the combination of electrification, energy storage technologies, energy efficiency, and hydrogen will displace most of the remaining oil & gas demand.

Even India & China are figuring this out.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2335 on: May 09, 2020, 06:54:31 AM »
I am completely convinced it is too later, way too late.  People are rearranging deck chairs.  Cutting a bit here and there, yay for that.

Projected CO2 production by 2030 at this rate will probably be 90% of what we're doing today.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2336 on: May 09, 2020, 07:53:08 AM »
Everyone take a deep breath. And please, do not exhale.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2337 on: May 09, 2020, 08:47:20 AM »
http://news.mit.edu/2016/how-much-difference-will-paris-agreement-make-0422

Assuming a climate system response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that’s of median strength, the three scenarios reduce the SAT in 2100 between 0.6 and 1.1 C relative to the “no climate policy” case. But because the climate system takes many years to respond to emissions reductions, in 2050 the SAT falls by only about 0.1 C in all three cases. Meanwhile, the rise in SAT since preindustrial times exceeds 2 C in 2053, and in 2100, reaches between 2.7 and 3.6 C — far exceeding the 2 C goal.

“The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step,” said Monier. “It puts us on the right path to keep warming under 3 C, but even under the same level of commitment of the Paris agreement after 2030, our study indicates a 95 percent probability that the world will warm by more than 2 C by 2100.”

(SAT = Surface Air Temperature).

This presumes the targets will be achieved of course, which is looking rather unlikely.

 

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