Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Well, it's conditional.

Alabama's win probability will depend on--assuming they beat OU--whether they face Clemson or ND in the final. It's two different numbers.

To get their actual win probability with opponent unknown, you'd multiply their probability against Oklahoma (72.8%) with their win probability against Clemson AND Notre Dame weighted by the likelihood of who they face.

According to ESPN, Clemson is 71.4% likely to beat Notre Dame. 

So let's assume Alabama would be projected to beat Clemson at a 64% clip, and Notre Dame at a 78% clip. 

The calculation would be:

Alabama(Champion) = (.728 * (.64*.714 + .78*.286) ) * 100 = 49.5%

You'd do the same with all other schools, and all of them should equal 100% when added. 

The tricky part about % chance to win the playoff is that all possible matchups have to be taken into account.  

Yep. So I'll make up numbers here, since I've already done that somewhat...
Clemson we'll say is 70% vs Oklahoma.
Oklahoma we'll say is 58% vs Notre Dame.
We already have Bama:
Alabama(Champion) = (.728 * (.64*.714 + .78*.286) ) * 100 = 49.5%
Clemson(Champion) = (.714 * (.36*.728 + .70*.272) ) * 100 = 32.3%
Oklahoma(Champion) = (.272 * (.30*.714 + .58*.286) ) * 100 = 10.3%
Notre Dame (Champion) = (.286 * (.22*.728 + .42*.272) ) * 100 = 7.8%
That all adds up to 99.9, so obviously once you account for rounding, we're at 100%.
Now, I simply made up the potential win likelihood for the CFP matchups because I couldn't easily find them. 
But if you were to know the potential likelihood for those games, you could just plug in the correct numbers and fix it.

Well I cast my lot with the Dirt Burglars.I'm pulling like hell for them,can't stand Dabo,Bama's had their share and ND would be insufferable and they recruit against the Buckeyes

Don't like it but I voted for OU.  

So do 2 of us just not acknowledge that defense is a thing that matters in the game of football?

if the Boomers win you better find an eraser

There's no rational reason to think the team with a defense that bad will beat two playoff teams.  It's not like Alabama is all defense and no offense.....they have the #2 offense behind OU.  
How many times Alabama has won it should have nothing to do with your pick.*
Who ND recruits against should have thing to do with your pick.*
Being tired of a team should have nothing to do with your pick.*






* = if you have any interest in actually being correct

I'd like to change my vote.