CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on December 27, 2018, 08:42:52 PM
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Well we need to vote on this before they play the damn thing!
1 Alabama vs 4 Oklahoma
2 Clemson vs 3 Notre Dame
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Who will win it all? The breakdown:
#1 - Alabama, 13-0, SEC Champions
2nd in scoring offense
4th in scoring defense
26th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 22TexasA&M, @4LSU, 18Miss.St., 4Georgia
L - None
The Tide is making their annual appearance in the playoff with a different kind of team. The defense, while still good, isn't stupid-elite vs either the run or pass. They haven't really had to, though, due to the Tide's most explosive offense under Saban. Tagovailoa has recovered from injury and had an all-time great season, with a passer rating over 200. The stable of RBs average over 6 yards per carry, and they also have the Belitnikoff winner at WR. The defense allowed under 300 total yards per game. They have both a KR and PR for TDs this year. The punting game isn't great.
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#2 - Clemson, 13-0, ACC Champions
4th in scoring offense
2nd in scoring defense
47th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 16N.C.State, #17BC
L - None
Clemson's been the closest rival to Alabama these last few years. This year's version has been more balanced on offense and has an NFL defensive line. QB Lawrence had a great first year, throwing 24 TD to only 4 INT. Unlike past years, Clemson has the running back to match its passing game in Etienne, averaging 8.3 ypc! and 21 TDs on the year. 3 of those DL mentioned were responsible for 40+ TFL on the season. The Tigers held opponents to under 100 yards rushing per game. The kicking game isn't great.
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#3 - Notre Dame, 12-0, Independent
33rd in scoring offense
10th in scoring defense
32nd in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 14Michigan, 7Stanford, @24VT, 12Syracuse
L - None
The Irish have been a new team since Ian Book took over at QB early in the season. The passing offense has been explosive and efficient, and they found a workhorse RB as well in Dexter Williams. His 6.6 ypc has made this a balanced offense. Like Clemson, ND spreads the ball around to 4 main targets. The defense bends - not strong vs the run, not a lot of INTs vs the pass - but doesn't break often. ND has the punting advantage over Bama or Clemson.
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#4 - Oklahoma, 12-1, BigXII Champions
1st in scoring offense
96th in scoring defense
27th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - @12WV, 9Texas
L - 19Texas
The Sooners' all-time great offense not only made up for its porous defense, but also allowed it to win the beauty contest for the last playoff spot vs Georgia and OSU. OU scored at least 28 points in every game and put up over 45 points ten times. QB Murray won the Heisman with the highest passer rating of all time AND almost 900 yards rushing, with 51 total TDs. The running game is healthy, with two RBs around 1,000 yards each. The Sooners sport two receivers with over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. But the defense finished last in FBS in pass defense. OU won games in which their opponent scored 40+ points in four of their last five games.
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Award Winners, All-Americans Involved:
QB Kyler Murray, OU (Heisman, AP POY, O'Brien)
WR Jerry Jeudy, ALA (Biletnkoff, 1st Team AA)
DL Quinnen Williams, ALA (Outland, 1st Team AA)
QB Tua Tagovailoa, ALA (Maxwell, Camp, 1st Team AA)
DL Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (Hendricks, 1st Team AA)
HC Brian Kelly, ND (Coach of the Year)
OL Mitch Hyatt, Clemson (1st Team AA)
OL Ben Powers, OU (1st Team AA)
OL Jonah Williams, ALA (1st Team AA)
DL Christian Wilkins, Clemson (1st Team AA)
DB Julian Love, ND (1st Team AA)
DB Deionte Thompson, ALA (1st Team AA)
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Bama.
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Voted Bama, but Murray is exactly the sort of QB to give their defense trouble.
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Sooners
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Voted Bama, but Murray is exactly the sort of QB to give their defense trouble.
Yup, but I can't pick against the favorite. I think it could resemble the RB game last January.
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Bama is the team to beat until proven otherwise.
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Bama already won the 2018 CFB Playoff, clear back in January.
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I wanted to vote for Georgia
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I figure roughly a 65% chance they beat Oklahoma. I give OU a better chance than most. Then about a 60% chance of beating Clemson.
Taken together, that puts them under a 50% chance of winning both.
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I understand how the percentages work, but if Bama has a 50% chance to win both games, do the other 3 teams each have a 16.6666% chance of winning both?
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It would depend on the matrix and the percentages you allow for each to win of course.
The sum of the odds would have to be unity of course.
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so, if the 50% chance is 3 times greater than the other 3 team's chances, then it's really more than a 50% chance?
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Wut?
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math isn't my strong suit
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I picked Alabama, but I feel much more certain about them winning in Santa Clara if they get there then I do about them winning tomorrow in Miami
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Well, it's conditional.
Alabama's win probability will depend on--assuming they beat OU--whether they face Clemson or ND in the final. It's two different numbers.
To get their actual win probability with opponent unknown, you'd multiply their probability against Oklahoma (72.8%) with their win probability against Clemson AND Notre Dame weighted by the likelihood of who they face.
According to ESPN, Clemson is 71.4% likely to beat Notre Dame.
So let's assume Alabama would be projected to beat Clemson at a 64% clip, and Notre Dame at a 78% clip.
The calculation would be:
Alabama(Champion) = (.728 * (.64*.714 + .78*.286) ) * 100 = 49.5%
You'd do the same with all other schools, and all of them should equal 100% when added.
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The tricky part about % chance to win the playoff is that all possible matchups have to be taken into account.
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The tricky part about % chance to win the playoff is that all possible matchups have to be taken into account.
Yep. So I'll make up numbers here, since I've already done that somewhat...
Clemson we'll say is 70% vs Oklahoma.
Oklahoma we'll say is 58% vs Notre Dame.
We already have Bama:
Alabama(Champion) = (.728 * (.64*.714 + .78*.286) ) * 100 = 49.5%
Clemson(Champion) = (.714 * (.36*.728 + .70*.272) ) * 100 = 32.3%
Oklahoma(Champion) = (.272 * (.30*.714 + .58*.286) ) * 100 = 10.3%
Notre Dame (Champion) = (.286 * (.22*.728 + .42*.272) ) * 100 = 7.8%
That all adds up to 99.9, so obviously once you account for rounding, we're at 100%.
Now, I simply made up the potential win likelihood for the CFP matchups because I couldn't easily find them.
But if you were to know the potential likelihood for those games, you could just plug in the correct numbers and fix it.
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So do 2 of us just not acknowledge that defense is a thing that matters in the game of football?
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Well I cast my lot with the Dirt Burglars.I'm pulling like hell for them,can't stand Dabo,Bama's had their share and ND would be insufferable and they recruit against the Buckeyes
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math isn't my strong suit
Unless you have the score card in your hand after 18 holes.Or counting 12 to 24 packs
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Don't like it but I voted for OU.
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Unless you have the score card in your hand after 18 holes.Or counting 12 to 24 packs
I keep an eraser at the ready
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So do 2 of us just not acknowledge that defense is a thing that matters in the game of football?
if the Boomers win you better find an eraser
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If 'bama doesn't win both games by double digits i'd be surprised.
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There's no rational reason to think the team with a defense that bad will beat two playoff teams. It's not like Alabama is all defense and no offense.....they have the #2 offense behind OU.
How many times Alabama has won it should have nothing to do with your pick.*
Who ND recruits against should have thing to do with your pick.*
Being tired of a team should have nothing to do with your pick.*
* = if you have any interest in actually being correct
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if the Boomers win you better find an eraser
If OU wins the playoff, I'll eat an eraser.
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I'd like to change my vote.
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Fun, anotjan year of terrible semifinals. There's been what two good ones out of 10?
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I see no reason to change my view. Clemson dispelled an idea they had yet to play anyone.
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I see no reason to change my view. Clemson dispelled an idea they had yet to play anyone.
Some might say they still haven't played anyone elite....
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So 2 out of 19 of us got it right. 10.5%
When pure chance gave us 25% (only four options), we bust out with 10.5%.
Yeesh.
:banghead:
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it's football
the best team doesn't always win
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it's football
the best team doesn't always win
but ... SEC SEC SEC
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I'm glad Bama lost. Clemson's success affects Florida less than Bama's does.
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I'm glad Bama lost. Clemson's success affects Florida less than Bama's does.
Clemson's success affects Florida in that while Clemson is good, Florida State cannot be good.
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Meh, I’m more concerned with Bama’s pipeline with IMG Academy in FL. It needs to stop.
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that's the job of the Florida coaching staff
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that's the job of the Florida coaching staff
and OSU 😈
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well, the fellow SEC rival should have more info on the bags of $$$ coming from Bama boosters