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Topic: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.

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MrNubbz

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1358 on: April 25, 2024, 06:31:58 AM »

Quote from: ELA on April 24, 2024, 11:09:26 PM
The language here.  Heavens to Betsy
Why does heaven go to Betsy and not the rest of us? What the hell
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ELA

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1359 on: April 25, 2024, 03:55:40 PM »
Seems like a bunch of MSU players returned just to collect 4 months of offseason NIL payments, and are back in the portal.

The #1 in state recruit, a true freshman, is already in the portal, leaving Michigan.

The new NCAA game is going to be wild
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utee94

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1360 on: April 25, 2024, 04:03:59 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 24, 2024, 05:49:32 PM
Does the Internet go back that far?

Dunno, ask Al Gore, the man who invented it.
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ELA

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1361 on: April 25, 2024, 04:17:47 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on April 25, 2024, 04:03:59 PM
Dunno, ask Al Gore, the man who invented it.
I've still never seen him, Pete Fiutak and badge in the same room
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1362 on: April 25, 2024, 04:25:55 PM »
I'd bet that revenue for CFB is going up even if attendance is drifting lower.  And that is why we're seeing so many changes, at least some of them.

Anyone like to bet that inflation adjusted revenue in CFB is UP a decade from now, or not?

What are Oregon State and Wazzu fans thinking these days?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1363 on: April 25, 2024, 04:59:49 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 25, 2024, 04:25:55 PM
I'd bet that revenue for CFB is going up even if attendance is drifting lower.  And that is why we're seeing so many changes, at least some of them.

Anyone like to bet that inflation adjusted revenue in CFB is UP a decade from now, or not?

What are Oregon State and Wazzu fans thinking these days?
I think that revenue may shrink overall, but become more concentrated in the biggest programs. 

If revenue is only 80% (inflation-adjusted) of what it is today in a decade, but only really spread across 30-35 programs? I think those programs would call it a success. 

Oregon State and Wazzu would have a lot of new friends. Poor friends, that is. Les Miserables. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1364 on: April 25, 2024, 05:04:33 PM »
I'm not sure why it would shrink overall, but it's possible.  I'd bet it increases, after inflation.  But I could easily be wrong.
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FearlessF

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1365 on: April 25, 2024, 05:37:43 PM »
the networks and the 2 super conferences are going to like it
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1366 on: April 25, 2024, 05:55:21 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 25, 2024, 05:04:33 PM
I'm not sure why it would shrink overall, but it's possible.  I'd bet it increases, after inflation.  But I could easily be wrong.
What I'm thinking in that hypothesis:

  • Current revenue is spread over roughly 65 P5 teams and 65 G5 teams (I don't know the current counts). P5 teams are mostly televised, with G5 teams only modestly televised when not playing a P5 team. 
  • Only ~half of those P5 teams are really phenomenally "money makers" for the networks based on viewership. This is evident based on the choices that they make to determine what to show on networks, on ESPN/ESPN2, vs what gets relegated to conference networks. The "dregs" are relegated to poor time slots or conference networks when not playing the top teams. 
  • If you cut out all except the top 30-35 teams, and you don't have conference contracts which force you to televise those crappy games, you probably get rid of them to the extent you can. 
  • If you cut volume by not televising 60%+ of current FBS, you simply have less ad space to sell. This could result in an overall loss of revenue. 
  • Cutting out those lesser programs may make SOME of their fans simply stop watching CFB entirely. So the TOTAL viewership might drop as well.
  • That said, the viewer eyeballs would now be increasingly funneled to those 30-35 programs, which means that every one of those broadcasts will get higher ratings. Which means that the value of the ad sales on those broadcasts will increase. Which means that the money flowing to those programs will increase because it's not being diluted by 60%+ of current FBS.

This is all speculation. I could also be wrong. But that's the scenario I could see where the pie gets slightly smaller but it's being split between far fewer programs, so they still want to do it. 

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FearlessF

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1367 on: April 25, 2024, 06:00:51 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2024, 05:55:21 PM
What I'm thinking in that hypothesis:

  • If you cut volume by not televising 60%+ of current FBS, you simply have less ad space to sell. This could result in an overall loss of revenue.


they will not cut volume
just like they won't cut number of bowl games = volume

it will just be a different pie to divide
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1368 on: April 25, 2024, 06:17:39 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on April 25, 2024, 06:00:51 PM
they will not cut volume
just like they won't cut number of bowl games = volume

it will just be a different pie to divide
Ok, so they'll cut production value / announcer talent. You won't get 75 different camera angles and the announcers will be the D- squad. They'll reduce cost. 

And they'll broadcast it only on subscriber-only ESPN+ or subscriber-only BTN+, so that it makes it hard for anyone except die hard fans of those lesser schools to watch, again funneling casual viewers to the "real" schools. 
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ELA

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1369 on: April 25, 2024, 10:56:41 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on April 25, 2024, 06:17:39 PM
Ok, so they'll cut production value / announcer talent. You won't get 75 different camera angles and the announcers will be the D- squad. They'll reduce cost.

And they'll broadcast it only on subscriber-only ESPN+ or subscriber-only BTN+, so that it makes it hard for anyone except die hard fans of those lesser schools to watch, again funneling casual viewers to the "real" schools.

The one COVID pivot I figured was going to stay was remote announcers.  It was bad, but was anyone turning it off?  You could have the same crew do multiple games, so you save on labor.  But then travel, lodging, expenses.  I figured aside from the absolute top broadcasts, that was going to be the new norm, and it turned out not to be
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847badgerfan

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1370 on: April 26, 2024, 07:51:20 AM »
I wonder what was going on. I guess I'll check the UL boards.

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.
« Reply #1371 on: April 26, 2024, 08:17:16 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 26, 2024, 07:51:20 AM
I wonder what was going on. I guess I'll check the UL boards.


That's one way to make room for some new portal talent to come in.
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