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Topic: The Death of College Football - Realignment, NIL, Portal, Etc.

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Cincydawg

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #350 on: June 07, 2023, 12:08:32 PM »
Good point.  I see an "NFL Network" on my TV at times, but it's not the major games of course.

The hurdle to assemble a "network" is significant.  I recall when ESPN was new they showed some laughable events often and almost never had anything of substance.

FearlessF

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #351 on: June 07, 2023, 12:09:19 PM »
BTN, SEC network, NFL network and ESPN are all on youtube TV and all other popular streaming options

ESPN is going to start their own streaming channel

as the CATV numbers dwindle, those customers migrate to streaming

instead of paying the CATV provider for content, they pay the streaming provider for content

how the content is delivered is not important

the BTN will continue to get paid
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #352 on: June 07, 2023, 12:12:54 PM »
BTN, SEC network, NFL network and ESPN are all on youtube TV and all other popular streaming options

ESPN is going to start their own streaming channel

as the CATV numbers dwindle, those customers migrate to streaming

instead of paying the CATV provider for content, they pay the streaming provider for content

how the content is delivered is not important

the BTN will continue to get paid

Yes, but the a la carte model is already proven to NOT pay as well as the forced subscriber model.  The difference is simple-- when ESPN and BTN and SECN force their way onto basic tiers, they're actively forcing subscribers who don't care about that content, to pay for it anyway.  Women who only watch ice skating, are still paying for your football games.  The thousands of viewers who want to watch Minnesota play Iowa, are being subsidized by the millions who don't give a rat's ass. 

But that's not true as the model switches over to a la carte delivered via streaming.

The forced subscriber model, not the content or delivery mechanism itself, is what's driving those huge profits.  And that is going away.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2023, 12:32:30 PM by utee94 »

Cincydawg

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #353 on: June 07, 2023, 12:20:11 PM »
What is the weakest football program in the B1G these days?  I could see Rutgers, Illinois, maybe Purdue?  

In the SEC it's clearly Vandy, the teams up from them can be 8-5ish decent in selected years, even winning ten every so often.

I was idly thinking about a B1G-SEC merger.

FearlessF

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #354 on: June 07, 2023, 12:36:07 PM »
Yes, but the a la carte model is already proven to NOT pay as well as the forced subscriber model.  The difference is simple-- when ESPN and BTN and SECN force their way onto basic tiers, they're actively forcing subscribers who don't care about that content, to pay for it anyway.  Women who only watch ice skating, are still paying for your football games.  The thousands of viewers who want to watch Minnesota play Iowa, are being subsidized by the scores of millions who don't give a rat's ass. 

But that's not true as the model switches over to a la carte delivered via streaming.

The forced subscriber model, not the content or delivery mechanism itself, is what's driving those huge profits.  And that is going away.
many are still forced by packages
true a la carte is a long way off
and when it does arrive, the price of content will go up to match revenue
BTN, NBC, CBS, FOX, ESPN are not paying the Big Ten less in the current contract or in future contracts.
the dollars keep getting larger while CATV providers lose customers
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #355 on: June 07, 2023, 12:40:56 PM »
What is the weakest football program in the B1G these days?  I could see Rutgers, Illinois, maybe Purdue? 

In the SEC it's clearly Vandy, the teams up from them can be 8-5ish decent in selected years, even winning ten every so often.

I was idly thinking about a B1G-SEC merger.
From what standpoint? Eyeballs?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #356 on: June 07, 2023, 12:49:00 PM »

and when it does arrive, the price of content will go up to match revenue
No, it won't.  It already isn't.  The areas moving to a la carte are losing massive amounts of revenue compared to the forced subscriber subsidized model.  This is already happening and will continue to happen.  This is my entire point.

Live sports are the final stronghold of the linear programming model, for obvious reasons.  But that's already getting chipped away and will only get worse going forward.

Cincydawg

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #357 on: June 07, 2023, 12:49:23 PM »
Just generally the weakest program in terms of wins and losses over time, prospects etc.  That probably correlates with eyeballs.  I'm wondering if someone could be cut in time.

FearlessF

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #358 on: June 07, 2023, 12:51:29 PM »
No, it won't.  It already isn't.  The areas moving to a la carte are losing massive amounts of revenue compared to the forced subscriber subsidized model.  This is already happening and will continue to happen.  This is my entire point.

Live sports are the final stronghold of the linear programming model, for obvious reasons.  But that's already getting chipped away and will only get worse going forward.

and yet the TV contracts just keep paying the conferences more and more????
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #359 on: June 07, 2023, 12:53:45 PM »
Just generally the weakest program in terms of wins and losses over time, prospects etc.  That probably correlates with eyeballs.  I'm wondering if someone could be cut in time.
In that case, I would say the Rutgers, Indiana and Northwestern from a football standpoint, are the weakest in the B1G. 

utee94

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #360 on: June 07, 2023, 12:54:32 PM »
and yet the TV contracts just keep paying the conferences more and more????
I view this round of TV contracts as a dinosaur, the final legacy of the dying previous model.

ESPN is already regretting the numbers, and they're insulated by Disney/Marvel/Star Wars money.  The other networks are about to find out how far in it over their heads they are, as well.

This is the end.

Like I said, the content owners like B1G and SEC are still going to make plenty of money.  But the ludicrous profits associated with the forced subscriber subsidized model, are about to dry up.

FearlessF

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #361 on: June 07, 2023, 01:01:59 PM »
you and I and others on this board

the true college football fans will have to pay to make up the difference
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #362 on: June 07, 2023, 01:10:30 PM »
So, what is the future? 

I know predicting is always tough when it's about the future ...

Anyone here having smoky/hazy skies?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: UW and UO to Big Ten ~ Memorial Day?
« Reply #363 on: June 07, 2023, 01:16:48 PM »
The biggest viewership numbers in all of American sports television come from the NFL, and if the NFL hasn't managed to force ALL of their content onto their own network, then I don't believe anyone can.
I don't think they can because they'd lose way too many "casual" viewers.  

Putting this back in a CFB context I think you can roughly categorize everyone into three groups:
  • Don't care at all, aren't going to watch no matter what.  
  • Casual fans will watch if it is on for free (or on a basic tier that they are already buying) but are NOT going to pay al a carte to view.  
  • Diehard fans will crawl over broken glass to watch.  

The great thing about the SEC and B1G Networks was that it got a whole bunch of money from people in category #1 who got forced to pay for it as part of their basic cable.  

Group #2 is VASTLY larger than group #3.  If one viewer is worth $0.50 for a game (as ratings for advertising) then you can compare the value of group #2 and group #3.  

Example:
Assume that one viewer is worth $0.50 for a game in advertising revenue.  Now assume that there are 8 Million people in group #2 and that of those, 500,000 are also in group #3.  

Ok, if you air the game for free you get $4 Million (8 million people times $0.50 each).  If you switch to an al a carte system where you charge for the content you only have 500,000 viewers so your advertising revenue drops to $250,000.  You need to make up the missing $3,750,000 in streaming charges which means you need to charge people $7.50 each to watch the game ($3,750,000/500,000).  

If you are talking about a Purdue game and broadcasting in California you are probably better off to charge @betarhoalphadelta some streaming fee rather than broadcast it because there aren't many Purdue fans in California.  However, if you are talking about a Texas game and you are broadcasting in Austin or an Ohio State game and you are broadcasting in Cleveland then I think there is simply more money to be gained by broadcasting it for free and picking up the advertising revenue from the millions of viewers.  


Current example:
Ohio State's second game this season is hosting Youngstown State at noon on Saturday, September 9.  That game is on BTN.  I'm a cord cutter so I don't get BTN.  I'm a fan so I'd like to watch but it is YSU so I'm not that excited.  I'm not going to pay even the $7.50 from my example above to watch Ohio State blow up YSU.  

 

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