As for Alex Smith.
A - there is so much random chance in how a player's NFL career turns out that it's probably not worth a conversation, but
B - if you insist, here are the facts: Alex Smith was a nobody, 2* recruit. He happened to have been coached by the 2nd? best HC of the past 50 years. He then became a #1 pick in the draft. You can try to make the argument that it's a coincidence, but good luck with that.
So the second best coach in the past 50 years can take nobody 2-stars and make them No. 1 picks, but he can get four- and five-stars and have them go undrafted? It's a small, selective datapoint. A nice one, but just that.
Terry Hoeppner turned Roethlisberger into a No. 11 pick. Kingsberry turned a guy with only a few offers into what we see now. But Terry and Kliff are what they are. The kid matters, the circumstances matter. Shoot, if Aaron Rogers had a bit less backbone, Smith isn't the first pick and might not be the 25th pick (that's a good story).
Everything gets cast with the context of what comes after. Urban was a very good coaching prospect, but there were things that fell in his favor and a few questions (as said, one of his best skills wasn't even on display before UF). He was less a slam dunk hire than Harbs, and with that in mind, we can deduce there are no real slam dunk hires. There are ones with better resumes, better soft skills, better results when they arrive.
Shoot, UF's coach now looks pretty good, and he was a big-game loser who seems to piss off everyone who meets him.
