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Topic: Top 25

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #532 on: November 28, 2019, 10:58:10 AM »
I think it reasonable to start with the P5 teams rank ordered by number of losses and then see if any need to be adjusted.  At times, no adjustment might be needed.
If there was ever, in the history of sport, ever a time no adjustment would be needed, I'll eat my hat.  There's a near-certainty (100%) adjustments need to be made, ESPECIALLY in college football, because the scheduling is so all-over-the-place.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #533 on: November 28, 2019, 11:02:24 AM »
OAM, much respect, but the bolded is nonsense. You know how they decide the postseason in baseball? Wins and losses. Nothing to do with sabermetrics. And you know what they did with their playoffs? They expanded them, despite the fact their postseason is somehow more random than football's despite having series.  You're right, the decision-makers haven't evolved, but at least the (knowledgeable) fans know how and by how much those people are woefully wrong.  College football fans wanting to expand the playoff are just burying their head int he sand.

We get it, the folks picking the playoff need to be more subjective in their choice. Why should they do this? Is it because there's a real good subjective way to do it? No it is not. It's because the mere appearance of a flattened, objective standing upsets you because it's not special enough. It's not interesting and different enough. We can't even ask who's most deserving, because we need to have more subjective rankings of who is "best," and these are the rankings that don't even count.   I honestly don't see the difficulty in ranking teams by a combination of resume and eye test, but most of you here act like it's some sort of impossibility.  Ohhh, it's hard, it takes more than 5 seconds, let me throw my hands up in angst.

SI's Ross Dellinger had an interesting thought experiment. He suggested you just go six teams, five P5 conference champs, one G5 picked by the committee and committee sets seedings. It's near as hard and fast objective as one can be. It doesn't give a trophy to someone who can't earn a trophy by objective means (perhaps we could amend it to have only division games count in standings). And people lashed out at the idea, because getting highly subjective is one of the great facets of this sport for better or worse.   If this happened, if they were smart, every helmet program would/should beg the ACC to admit them and ditch the SEC or Big Ten immediately.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #534 on: November 28, 2019, 11:13:17 AM »
I honestly don't see the difficulty in ranking teams by a combination of resume and eye test, but most of you here act like it's some sort of impossibility.  Ohhh, it's hard, it takes more than 5 seconds, let me throw my hands up in angst.

I certainly don't think it's difficult.  It's just that everyone's opinion would be different, some wildly different
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Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #535 on: November 28, 2019, 11:21:41 AM »
I don't have a problem with the rankings.  Part of the reason is I don't really pay that much attention other than to ponder who might make the playoff.  The other part is my experience with trying to do weekly rankings here a few years back.  I found it to be quite a challenge, particularly below 15.  

I would oscillate between doing a "power poll" and an eye test poll.

Is the AP poll somehow better than the CFP "poll" because they have Florida ahead of Minnesota?  Maybe.  Dunno.


utee94

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #536 on: November 29, 2019, 09:41:23 PM »
LSU's wins to date of note are:

Texas - Looked a lot better earlier in the year, now, not so much, and the points allowed is interesting.
Auburn - Close win, fewest points scored by LSU at 23-20.
Florida - Good win over solid team, but at home, 42-28.
Alabama - Great win on the road 46-41.'
A&M - TBD, let's assume a win of say 38-28, solid win over pretty good team.

The points allowed here is what makes OSU top dog at the moment, I think.  OSU has very good looking wins over Cincy, Wisconsin, Penn State, all in C-bus, and nobody else has been close except perhaps MSU initially.

Your choices in description here are interesting to me.  Due to my own allegiance, and my marriage, I play closer attention to UT and A&M, than any other schools, by a longshot.

Texas has certainly had a disappointing season compared to preseason expectations, but 4 of the losses are to good teams (LSU, Oklahoma, Baylor, ISU ranked by CFP as 2,7, 9, and 23).  The loss to TCU was definitely a bad one, but Texas has also beaten 3 teams with winning records (#21 OkSate 8-3, Kansas State 7-4, and Louisiana Tech 8-3).

On the other hand, while the Aggies have a similarly long list of losses to good teams (Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn ranked by CFP as 3,4,5,15) they haven't beaten a single team with a winning record. 

So while I'm certainly disappointed in Texas' season, I'm not sure I'd describe a potential LSU win over the Ags as a "solid win over a pretty good team."  Your hypothetical of an LSU 10-point win over a 7-5 A&M team doesn't look to me as being much different than a 7-point win over a 7-5 Texas team.  And, since Texas actually has beaten 3 teams with winning records, while A&M has beaten 0 teams with winning records, I'm hard-pressed to describe that Aggie team as better than Texas.  There are signs pointing to them being worse.

Now, if Ags actually beat LSU and win their first and only game against a team with a winning record, then I suppose I might have to re-evaluate my position.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #537 on: November 29, 2019, 11:47:29 PM »
Yeah, A&M needs a win over someone like Louisiana Tech...
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

utee94

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #538 on: November 29, 2019, 11:50:51 PM »
Yeah, A&M needs a win over someone like Louisiana Tech...
Well, I guess we agree because A&M could use a win over ANYONE with a winning record.  But like I stated, sadly, they don't have that.  Despite playing woeful teams in their OOC like UTSA, Texas State, and FCS Lamar (who are a combined  11-23).

So yeah, a win over Louisiana Tech would be better than any wins A&M currently has.

And UT wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State are even better than that.

So, yeah, pretty much case closed on that.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2019, 12:09:37 AM by utee94 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #539 on: November 30, 2019, 04:43:36 AM »
I didn't say A&M was better than Texas, maybe they aren't.  I said the Texas win looked better earlier in the year, and it did.  I also think A&M is a "pretty good team" because they hung in there for the most part against top level opponents.  If LSU beats them by ten, I'd call it a pretty good win over a solid team.

The win at Texas LOOKED like a fantastic road win earlier in the year.

ELA

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #540 on: December 02, 2019, 03:45:25 PM »

  • Ohio State (1)
  • LSU (2)
  • Clemson (3)
  • Georgia (4)
  • Oklahoma (7)
  • Wisconsin (9)
  • Penn State (6)
  • Alabama (5)
  • Florida (11)
  • Utah (8)
  • Auburn (14)
  • Baylor (12)
  • Michigan (10)
  • Notre Dame (13)
  • Oregon (16)
  • Iowa (17)
  • Minnesota (15)
  • Memphis (19)
  • Appalachian State (18)
  • Navy (20)
  • USC (21)
  • Cincinnati (23)
  • Boise State (24)
  • Air Force (-)
  • SMU (-)









OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #541 on: December 02, 2019, 06:55:53 PM »
I wish Florida and Alabama would play in a bowl.  A couple of 10-2 SEC teams that didn't play in the regular season, it'd be kinda special.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #542 on: December 02, 2019, 06:56:24 PM »
ELA, you're an obvious SEC-homer, having 5 SEC teams in the top 11.  :96:
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #543 on: December 02, 2019, 06:59:10 PM »
I wouldn't mind UW playing either Florida or Bama in a bowl, assuming they can't get to the Rose Bowl, of course.

Does the Orange have to take an ACC school, even though there will be none ranked available after Saturday? Or, can they go to the next best and take an SEC/B1G/ND??
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #544 on: December 02, 2019, 07:04:04 PM »
They have an ACC tie-in, I believe.  And an SEC team goes to the Sugar. 

Basically, the Fiesta, with 2 at-large bids, would have to do it, but the Orange would have to bypass one of them and take Memphis or whoever.  Basically mail in the Orange Bowl for 2019/20 (Virginia vs Memphis - SEXXXAY!).  Meh.



Maybe they could play in the Peach - pretend it's an SECCG!  I doubt the Sugar and Cotton/Fiesta would bypass Alabama AND Florida.  Assuming Georgia loses to LSU, you'd have 3 big-boy SEC teams to choose from in that range, plus Auburn right there around 10th.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #545 on: December 02, 2019, 07:10:48 PM »
Yeah, the only tie-ins among the NY6 are:
Rose - B10 & PAC
Sugar - SEC & XII
Orange - ACC

The rest get whoever, with one spot saved for the best G5 team (Memphis/Cinci/Navy/whoever).





I don't know if there's a rule against a ton of teams from one conference inundating the Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach, though.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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