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Topic: Top 25
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #308 on:** November 13, 2019, 07:35:05 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 12, 2019, 11:23:50 PM

Maybe the Committee has already decided to ditch Alabama, and Georgia is now the favored 2nd SEC team for the CFP.

That cannot be, because UGA has to win out to make the CFP under any rational scenario. That means LSU would be the 2nd SEC team possible after a CG loss, which is unlikely. UGA at 12-1 would make the playoff whether they are now #4 or #8.

I do think this shows that "preseason expectations" play into these rankings, this "clean sheet" thing is notional.

If UGA had the same record as Minnesota against the same teams, they'd still be #4 (or higher).

Cincydawg · « **Reply #309 on:** November 13, 2019, 07:46:35 AM »

So, while I don't think any of this matters beyond trying to understand "how they think", I will compare Alabama #5 and Minnesota #8. The latter of course is undefeated with a solid win over #9. Alabama has zero wins over ranked teams and a "competitive loss" at home to #1.

Minny does have some sketchy wins early in the year over substandard competition, but 4 of their last 5 wins were "convincing".

I'll note the other polls have them similarly spaced, so this isn't unique to the committee. They are #4 and #7 in the other two polls as well. This isn't some conspiracy thing by the committee, it's how human's collectively view helmets and schedules and preseason expectations and recruiting etc.

And to be fair, Alabama would be a 10 point favorite over Minnesota in a NS game, at least. "We" are influenced by reputation and past history.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #310 on:** November 13, 2019, 07:47:11 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2019, 07:30:48 AM

Thanks, Crunch.

Says his clone

Cincydawg · « **Reply #311 on:** November 13, 2019, 07:54:20 AM »

OAM is typically very critical of his team. Crunch would be incredibly bizarrely positive and suddenly revert to entirely negative and blame the coach and then disappear.

OAM also has not claimed to be able to beat the house at roulette.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #312 on:** November 13, 2019, 07:56:58 AM »

You're right he trolls in a different direction - at others

Benthere2 · « **Reply #313 on:** November 13, 2019, 08:05:24 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2019, 07:46:35 AM

So, while I don't think any of this matters beyond trying to understand "how they think", I will compare Alabama #5 and Minnesota #8. The latter of course is undefeated with a solid win over #9. Alabama has zero wins over ranked teams and a "competitive loss" at home to #1.

Minny does have some sketchy wins early in the year over substandard competition, but 4 of their last 5 wins were "convincing".

I'll note the other polls have them similarly spaced, so this isn't unique to the committee. They are #4 and #7 in the other two polls as well. This isn't some conspiracy thing by the committee, it's how human's collectively view helmets and schedules and preseason expectations and recruiting etc.

And to be fair, Alabama would be a 10 point favorite over Minnesota in a NS game, at least. "We" are influenced by reputation and past history.

I think Minnesota is fine at 8 for now. 17 was a joke and I think the committee fixed that.
Minnesota will still have chances to prove where they belong.

A win this week will get even more looks as I read now that because we win at home it disqualifies the win and that if say a "team like Illinois would beat the Gophers on a neutral site"

one week at a time by the end of the year it will work itself out

By the way everyone looks at the first three non conference games as easy teams. just for fun go and look at what they were just last year record wise I think they combined for a record of 32 wins and 8 losses. Compare LSU non conference record last year and those teams were 25-13

Cincydawg · « **Reply #314 on:** November 13, 2019, 08:22:36 AM »

I don't think the raw records of opponents is indicative of much, especially that of last year.

Those first three Minny opponents are just mediocre at best to bad. SDSU is 7-3, but against who?

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #315 on:** November 13, 2019, 08:32:16 AM »

I've been reading these posts this morning trying to catch up to what people are saying.

I believe there is a big disconnect between what the CFPC will do and what we believe they SHOULD do. After reading more of OAM's posts, I understand what he is saying. I think we all are pretty much in agreement that the CFPC has a bias and favors helmets with Alabama being the most Helmet of them all of late. I would agree that the committee will do everything it can to find a way to get Alabama into the group of 4.

Is it right? No. But as we don't get a vote, there is not a lot that we can do about it. This is why we need to get to a system where we take subjectivity out of it. We need a system where the criteria to make the playoffs is well defined and everyone knows what it is. And I'm not talking about simply win all of your games because it is obvious that does not apply to Alabama.

But at this point, I am just happy to get to watch 4 more weeks of college football (3 regular season then the conf champ games) and enjoy it while I can. Because pretty soon, the season will be over and I will be left with nothing but basketball. Yuck.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #316 on:** November 13, 2019, 08:35:30 AM »

The committee won't do "everything it can" to get Bama in, IMHO. They will consider them strongly IFF there is an open slot.

There likely will not be an open slot for Bama because four conference winners will be 12-1 or 13-0 in all probability. And as noted, Bama does not have some impressive win to note, best would be over 9-3 Auburn on the road.

RestingB!tchFace · « **Reply #317 on:** November 13, 2019, 09:55:39 AM »

Quote from: Benthere2 on November 13, 2019, 08:05:24 AM

I think Minnesota is fine at 8 for now. 17 was a joke and I think the committee fixed that.
Minnesota will still have chances to prove where they belong.

A win this week will get even more looks as I read now that because we win at home it disqualifies the win and that if say a "team like Illinois would beat the Gophers on a neutral site"

one week at a time by the end of the year it will work itself out

By the way everyone looks at the first three non conference games as easy teams. just for fun go and look at what they were just last year record wise I think they combined for a record of 32 wins and 8 losses. Compare LSU non conference record last year and those teams were 25-13

I'm fine with #8. Although.....Utah has no business at #7. But the Gophers have their biggest games now. They got through their biggest test, in a game that was widely promoted, on national television. Iowa is on Fox @ 3:00 (C.T. for our friends in other time zones) and there's little doubt that the Wisconsin game will be a marquee matchup, regardless of whether the Gophers have already locked up the West title or not. The AXE game is SUPER cool if it is between two of the better Big Ten teams. This year will be a good one. Especially considering the implications.

And the first three games were a mystery. All three of those teams won ten games the year before....but that shouldn't matter too much this year. Especially with lower level teams....where high end talent is more difficult to come by. Those teams have not been great this year. I could say that they pretty much spent the offseason planning for the Gophers game specifically....but that would be a lie. I don't think any are bad teams. Fresno is basically the one recent team to battle with Boise for the MWC. SDSU is one of the best D1-AA teams. And Georgia Southern is the only team to beat App State this year.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #318 on:** November 13, 2019, 10:16:40 AM »

Those three are mediocre teams at best. A top team should be penalized if any of them stayed close even once.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #319 on:** November 13, 2019, 10:19:27 AM »

Quote from: NorthernOhioBuckeye on November 13, 2019, 08:32:16 AM

I've been reading these posts this morning trying to catch up to what people are saying.

I believe there is a big disconnect between what the CFPC will do and what we believe they SHOULD do. After reading more of OAM's posts, I understand what he is saying. I think we all are pretty much in agreement that the CFPC has a bias and favors helmets with Alabama being the most Helmet of them all of late. I would agree that the committee will do everything it can to find a way to get Alabama into the group of 4.

What exactly is the root of this feeling? That they jumped 12-1 UW in 2017? That they are high in the rankings that don't count?

If the helmet is what matters, does Bama jump 12-1 LSU if it loses to UGA? Does OSU jump LSU in that case if the Buckeyes get popped by PSU?

My assumption in all of this is a sense that someone somewhere is doing something untoward and in favor of a team we don't like, and I'm just not sure how solid it is.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #320 on:** November 13, 2019, 10:21:50 AM »

Quote from: RestingB!tchFace on November 13, 2019, 09:55:39 AM

And the first three games were a mystery. All three of those teams won ten games the year before....but that shouldn't matter too much this year. Especially with lower level teams....where high end talent is more difficult to come by. Those teams have not been great this year. I could say that they pretty much spent the offseason planning for the Gophers game specifically....but that would be a lie. I don't think any are bad teams. Fresno is basically the one recent team to battle with Boise for the MWC. SDSU is one of the best D1-AA teams. And Georgia Southern is the only team to beat App State this year.

The problem with this whole paragraph is that it would be true, if we were talking about whether Minnesota should be #15 or #20 but it simply is NOT true when we are talking about whether Minnesota should be #10 or #5.

As you climb up the ladder you get compared to better and better teams. Earlier this season when I was comparing Minnesota to Nebraska, Maryland, and Northwestern their TD win over Purdue would have been great. Nebraska (lost by 4), Maryland (lost by 26), and Northwestern (lost by 2) all did worse. If you are comparing Minnesota to Iowa then their TD win over Purdue is ok, but not great. Iowa beat Purdue by 6 but Iowa's game was at home while Minnesota's was on the road so Minnesota's is better but not substantially better. If you want Minnesota to be compared to Penn State, their TD win over Purdue isn't good. Penn State beat them by 28.

The same is true of Minnesota's 42 point win over Maryland:

Looks great compared to RU (lost by 41)
Looks good compared to PU (won by 26) and Michigan (won by 31)
Looks bad compared to tOSU and PSU (won by 59 each)

You can say that an opponent is one of the best D1-AA teams when you are talking about being ranked 15th or 20th but that frankly sounds silly when you are talking about a top-10 team. Top-10 teams don't struggle with FCS teams at all. Nobody cares if the FCS team was a "good" FCS team, they are still an FCS team and a top-10 team should mop the floor with them.

Fresno may have battled Boise for the MWC in the past but this year they aren't anywhere close. They are 2-3 in the MWC and also sub .500 overall.

Georgia Southern did upset Appalachian State but they also lost to Louisiana, Troy, and Louisiana State. This is another team that a legitimate top-10 team should mop the floor with. Oh, a legitimate top-10 team named Louisiana State DID mop the floor with them in a 55-3 romp. That is what a top-10 team does to Georgia Southern, not escape with a 35-32 win on a TD in the final seconds of the game after trailing 7-0, 10-7, and 32-28.

You were better off just admitting that Minnesota's early games were not impressive and arguing that Minnesota had improved because trying to justify Minnesota's close wins over crap opposition is not getting you anywhere.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #321 on:** November 13, 2019, 10:23:06 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2019, 10:16:40 AM

Those three are mediocre teams at best. A top team should be penalized if any of them stayed close even once.

I think this is true and points to an interesting split. If you argue bad scheduling intent, that can be debated, as all three have some recent good history as lower level teams.

But if you're actually judging how you played against them, you can only look at the team as it presently exists. And that's a batch of .500ish mid-majors and a good FCS team.

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Topic: Top 25

Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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MrNubbz

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Cincydawg

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MrNubbz

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Benthere2

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Cincydawg

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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Cincydawg

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RestingB!tchFace

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Cincydawg

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bayareabadger

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medinabuckeye1

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bayareabadger

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