I wish they would use some kind of numerical metric for ranked wins.
Like, why should I rely on the same blend of resume and a test to determine opponents quality when I could just use numbers that are predictive and forward-looking and would probably indicate the quality of opponent? Those predictive numbers recognize strength, which is what we’re really looking for in the first place.
The main downside is we are particularly bad in using rankings rather than whatever strength comes behind those rankings. The number 25 and 30 teams might be basically the same in terms of quality, but we tend to treat them very differently.
I'm not taking exception to anything you've posted there. Just using your post as a take-off point.
Regardless of strength, or quality, or eye-test, or whatever metric other than W-L we want to use, at the end of the day, wins and losses matter. As an example, Bama may be the strongest, highest-quality team in the country, but it lost at home to LSU. And--if we want to get into eye test for one game--the loss was worse than the 5-point margin indicated. In any event, there has to be a penalty for losing, whether the loss comes at the hands of a peer or to an obviously inferior team.
Speaking of Bama . . . . Within a few hours of the LSU win, the "How Bama can still get into the CFP" stories were coming out through television and "print" media. It's the eternal SEC narrative. The SEC runner-up
must be roughly equal to the champion of other conferences, so let's start marshaling the arguments to get that runner-up into the CFP.
And what's really interesting is how Bama has been treated relative to Clemson. Bama's resume before its loss was roughly equal to Clemson's. I don't think either of them had beaten a currently ranked team. But Clemson was being dismissed for its weak schedule while Bama rough equivalence was being explained away. (It was certainly true that Bama had a far more formidable schedule remaining than Clemson did.) Clemson doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, even though it has won two of the last four NCs and even though it beat Bama handily in last year's NC game. Bama's helmet is apparently more powerful than Clemson's johnny-come-lately helmet, and Nick Saban is apparently more powerful than Dabo Swinney.
