Alabama would need several 11-2 CG winners this season which is increasingly less likely. Imagine UGA upsets LSU and they are both 12-1, Alabama is hosed for sure.
None of us can expect Clemson to lose. Ohio State could end up 12-1 winning the CG, they also could do worse of course, I don't expect it. The Pac seems fairly likely to have a 12-1 champ.
Bama's OOC win of course is Duke, yay. They would have wins over Auburn and A&M, OK I guess, and a decent loss.