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Topic: Top 25

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #56 on: November 10, 2019, 12:01:06 PM »
I'm going to use the square number 16 to draw a line at elite/good/top teams.  Yes, we keep in mind those just outside this top 16 are tough opponents, but whether the line is drawn at 16 or 25 or bowl teams or .500+ or wherever, a line is drawn.  
big win = win over top 16 team
good loss = loss vs top 16 team (regardless of score, this is just about team quality atm)
bad loss = loss vs team not close to top 16 (~outside top 24)
okay loss = loss vs team just outside top 16 (~17-24 or so)
tie-breaker = wins vs teams just outside top 16 (17-24)





Looking at resumes:
Ohio State only has 1 "big" win (+31 vs WIS).  No losses.
LSU has 3 big wins (+14 vs FLA, +3 vs AUB, +5 vs ALA).  No losses.
Alabama has no big wins.  1 loss ("good" loss:  -5 vs LSU).
Clemson has no big wins.  No losses.
Penn State has 1 big win (+7 vs UM).  1 loss (good loss:  -5 vs MINN).
Georgia has 2 big wins (+6 vs ND, +7 vs FLA).  1 loss (bad loss:  -3 vs USCe).
Oregon has no big wins.  1 loss (good loss:  -6 vs AUB).
Oklahoma has no big wins.  1 loss (okay loss:  -7 vs KSU).
Utah has no big wins.  1 loss (bad loss:  -7 vs USCw).
Florida has 1 big win (+11 vs AUB).  2 losses (good loss:  -14 vs LSU, good loss:  -7 vs UGA).
Baylor has no big wins.  No losses.
Auburn has 1 big win (+6 vs ORE).  2 losses (good loss:  -11 vs FLA, good loss:  -3 vs LSU).
Minnesota has 1 big win (+5 vs PSU).  No losses.
Wisconsin has 1 big win (+21 vs UM).  2 losses (bad loss:  -1 vs ILL, good loss:  -31 vs OSU).
Michigan has 1 big win (+31 vs ND).  2 losses (good loss:  -21 vs WIS, good loss:  -7 vs PSU).
Notre Dame has no big wins.  2 losses (good loss:  -6 vs UGA, good loss:  -31 vs UM).

Instead of ranking teams by number of losses, why not rank them by a +/- system of big wins and good/okay/bad losses?  
LSU at +3 is at the top, obviously.
Then we have a group at +1:  OSU, Georgia, and Minnesota
At 0, we have Clemson, Penn St, and Baylor.
-1:  Alabama, Oregon, OU, Utah, Florida, Auburn, Wisconsin, and UM.
-2:  ND
-----------------------
I'll choose to reward SOS, so if teams have the same +/-, the team with big wins/loss(es) will be ranked higher.  If it's the same, we'll just default to how their ordered.
1.  LSU
2.  Georgia
3.  Ohio St
4.  Minnesota
5.  Penn St
6.  Clemson
7.  Baylor
8.  Florida
9.  Auburn
10. Wisconsin
11. Michigan
12. Alabama
13. Oregon
14. Oklahoma
15. Utah
16. ND
This really rewards the Gophers finally playing someone and beating them.  This also ignores when big wins and losses took place (which I think is a good thing).


So that's resume, in my own time-wasting, silly way of doing it.  Now for eye test.  This is where I'll take into account MOV and who I think would win if they played today at a neutral site.  You could say this is my attempt at who would be favored if they played now.
1.  LSU
2.  OSU
3.  Alabama
4.  Clemson
5.  Georgia
6.  Penn St
7.  Florida
8.  Auburn
9.  Oregon
10. Oklahoma
11. Wisconsin
12. Minnesota
13. Michigan
14. Baylor
15. Utah
16. ND
I think valid rankings should include a mixture of objective and subjective.  This is easy to do here, with one of each and just averaging them out.  No, these are not "correct" as there is no correct, but it's fun to do and it's Sunday morning - time to kill between filling orders for Whoa Nellie.



“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #57 on: November 10, 2019, 12:07:58 PM »
The OAM Top 16

1.  LSU
2.  Ohio State.......top 2 are easy
3.  Georgia
4.  Clemson
5.  Penn St
6.  Alabama
7.  Florida......this is high, but it is what it is
8.  Minnesota
9.  Auburn
10. Baylor
11. Wisconsin....I'd still pick them over Minn today.
12. Oregon
13. Oklahoma.....with that defense, I just can't
14. Michigan
15. Utah
16. ND
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #58 on: November 10, 2019, 12:09:53 PM »
Not that far off mine, except I have UGA lower and Oregon/Utah quite a bit higher, UF and Auburn a bit lower.


Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #59 on: November 10, 2019, 01:38:26 PM »
Just going on what I think:

1. LSU
2. Ohio St
3. Clemson
4. Bama
5. UGA
6. Auburn
7. Oregon
8. Florida
9. Oklahoma
10. Penn St
11. Wisconsin
12. Michigan
13. ND
14. Utah
15. Minnesota
16. Texas
17. Texas A&M
18. Baylor
19. Ok St
20. K St
21. Memphis
22. Iowa
23. Cincinnati 
24. Washington
25. USC

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #60 on: November 10, 2019, 02:13:41 PM »
So why is this one different from the last one?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #61 on: November 10, 2019, 03:30:56 PM »
I was reviewing the highlights of the Bama game and can make an argument that Bama would beat LSU more often than not, even on a neutral field.  Bama really made some uncharacteristic mistakes in the first half.

847badgerfan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #62 on: November 10, 2019, 03:52:46 PM »
Which could mean two things.

They were not prepared, as they had played nobody to date, or they choked under the pressure.

Interestingly enough, Minnesota did neither of those things. They had played nobody to date either.

Bama will get the benefit of the doubt here. 

Sadly, Minnesota will not if they stumble, even one time.

Minnie plays @Iowa, @NU, and home against UW.

Bama has @msu, Western Carolina school of the nobody, and @Auburn.

Minnesota has the rougher go, in my opinion.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #63 on: November 10, 2019, 04:15:11 PM »
So why is this one different from the last one?
Results are more important than what I think.

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #64 on: November 10, 2019, 05:27:19 PM »
I merely am expressing my thought that Bama is the better team and would beat LSU 65 times out of 100.  They don't play 100 times, or even 10.

Bama had a bad first half and could not recover (credit to LSU for not fading).  I thought LSU was better before the game, now I'm not so sure.

Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #65 on: November 10, 2019, 06:16:38 PM »
I merely am expressing my thought that Bama is the better team and would beat LSU 65 times out of 100.  They don't play 100 times, or even 10.

Bama had a bad first half and could not recover (credit to LSU for not fading).  I thought LSU was better before the game, now I'm not so sure.
That’s funny because I thought LSU was better before the game and watching the game just reinforced that even stronger in my mind.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #66 on: November 10, 2019, 06:18:01 PM »
We all know coaching is broken up into parts.  Some are great at recruiting, some at gameday decisions, etc.  But there's coaching leading up to the game and the 1st half and there's halftime adjustments.  You could make the argument Bama had the better halftime adjustments, but the 1st half still happened and the lead-up to it was part of the coaching acumen for both teams.



You can say Bama allowed things that were uncharacteristic in that first half, but look at their scores.  A punt return TD and a long pass play - both quirky, low-likelihood plays.  LSU had the only actual scoring drives in the first half.  10 of their points were from short fields, but the rest was earned.



Then in the 2nd half, a half where Bama outscored the Tigers 28-13, LSU answered when they had to.  The 3rd quarter was an unremarkable 7-0 advantage to Bama.  Bama's last TD was a 1-play bomb - another quirky play that was highly unlikely and wouldn't be repeated (hypothetically).  But both times Bama got to within 1 score, LSU answered to go back up 2 scores.  Bama never had the ball with the chance to take the lead.  That's a big deal.



Basically, LSU had 10 quirky points, all in the first half...but Bama had 21 for the game.  I'd take LSU to beat Bama >50 times out of 100.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

RestingB!tchFace

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #67 on: November 10, 2019, 06:42:42 PM »
Just going on what I think:

1. LSU
2. Ohio St
3. Clemson
4. Bama
5. UGA
6. Auburn
7. Oregon
8. Florida
9. Oklahoma
10. Penn St
11. Wisconsin
12. Michigan
13. ND
14. Utah
15. Minnesota
16. Texas
17. Texas A&M
18. Baylor
19. Ok St
20. K St
21. Memphis
22. Iowa
23. Cincinnati
24. Washington
25. USC

Glad you don't get to vote on anything that actually matters.....

Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #68 on: November 10, 2019, 06:51:03 PM »
Glad you don't get to vote on anything that actually matters.....
Lol.  Please feel free to post yours.

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2019, 06:53:05 PM »
Easier to criticize the man in the arena.

 

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