Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

This is taken from the 'Top 10" thread, and a statement about returning QBs:
quote:  PSU/tOSU will have new QBs might even flip flop them
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The general consensus seems to be that in this QB-reliant era, you need an experienced one in order to have a great season.
Does the data show this?
Recent anecdotal example:  UNC has new starting QB in 2019.
Sam Howell tears it up with 38 TDs and 3600 yds.  He's great. 
UNC goes 7-6.  But Howell is coming back!  UNC is the preseason mag darling, with everyone ignoring the fact that all his toys left.  They ignored it because the good QB was returning!  Howell goes on to have another great season and UNC goes..8-4.  Not the season expected of them (unfairly imo).
So Howell goes on to have a pretty good season after that, but with (correctly) tempered expectations. 
He leaves, UNC has no expectations the following preseason.  They'd just gone 6-7, their QB was gone, nothing to see here.
New starter Drake Maye shows up, throws 38 TDs and 4300 yds and UNC goes 9-5. 
9-5 isn't special, but it far exceeded the expectation. 
The only real difference between 2020 UNC and 2022 UNC was expectations based on returning QB. 
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omg OAM, you typed so much for a sample size of one!
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Well, let's look at the elite teams from the past few years.  Is there a returning QB fallacy?
First, the national champions....what did they have?
2022 - UGA, returning QB
2021 - UGA, ehhh returning QBs...
2020 - ALA, new QB (experienced backup, though)
2019 - LSU, returning QB
2018 - Clemson, new QB
2017 - ALA, returning QB (but probably don't win it w/o Tua)
2016 - Clemson, returning QB
2015 - ALA, new QB
2014 - OSU, new QB
2013 - FSU, new QB
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So in the past 10 years, the national champs have only had a returning QB half the time.  Doesn't seem that essential.
A great returning QB can probably elevate a low-talent team, but not necessarily.
But the better your recruiting/talent level, the less important an experienced QB is....not simply because the talent around him is exceptional, but if he's on your roster at all, that new QB is exceptionally talented as well. 
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This would require a much deeper dive of course, but from just the 50% of NCs peek at it, the obsession over returning QBs doesn't seem warranted.

Actually I have seen other data and analysis that fully supports what you are saying here.

The returning QB being important is not supported by the data. 

one might be able to make a case that it helps during the season, but for winning championships- not so much.

My gut about McCarthy at UM and Williams at USC being potentially the difference when Bama, Georgia, OSU- Are all starting new QBs-is just that. Gut feeling. And it will likely be proven wrong if the data trends hold up.

It's still a factor, one of many.

It' an overvalued factor.  That's the point.  No one has ever or will ever suggest it's not one of many factors.  

Yes, yes, you're the exception.
We get it.
And you nitpick my every breath.
Thanks for that.

championship level teams are a different animal

they have great line play in the trenches
they have great skill position players
usually a solid defense
they have great coaches
they have had great recruiting previous seasons

they have the ability to slide in a DAMN good QB the following season, possibly with some game experience in mop up wins the previous season

You post crap, and when called on it, you resort to ad hominem attacks, every time.

I'm one of the VERY few that actually bother to explore and research things and share them here (football things, not all the other divisive crap).
What crap is posted here about returning QBs?  

This bit above would be more persuasive if you didn't mess up the UNC timeline, or have the cutoff problem. 

UNC surprised by going 6-7 with a freshman in 2019. Then was a decent preseason team in 2020, going 8-4 with a prodigious offense and middling defense. The next year they were preseason top-10, lost a bunch of weapons and slipped a bit. But their fall came with a defense that got notably worse. And then last year, with a QB everyone and their mother knew would be good ... well, the schedule opened up a bit more and they had some close wins. Pitfalls of CFB.

The cutoff issue is that you just say the last seven years, and wow, it's 71 percent of national champs have returning QBs. 

Now, the larger topic is interesting and probably true. We are too afraid of the unknown when it comes to QBs and put too much stock in the returning ones. In some ways, it makes sense, because many QBs are crappy, but we also consistently overstate how much they will improve. 

So, who exactly is over valuing UNC because of Howell's return?