As far as the game, I think the haze surrounding the injury situation on both sides makes it nigh on to impossible to make an projections.
Obviously all guys on both sides are going to want to play, games like these are why you play the game. It is possible that JSN and Treyvon Henderson are back at full strength along with Miyan Williams. On the other side it is possible that Corum and Edwards are back at full strength.
I don't frankly trust the injury reports out of either camp. If I were either coach I'd want to keep things hazy. For example, lets say that Corum is done for the season. If I were Jim Harbaugh, I wouldn't admit that. I'd make the Buckeyes prepare to defend him by claiming that there wasn't any structural damage and he'll play. I'm not saying that IS what is going on and I certainly hope not, I wouldn't wish injury on anyone, not even a Wolverine, I'm just saying that I see this as a distinct possibility. Also, I don't mean that to pick on Michigan, I would expect Day to play the same game. Thus, I don't think we really know who is going to be truly ready to go and we will not know until a little after noon on Saturday.
Honestly, I can see this game being a tight one or getting out of hand either way. My thoughts:
Michigan wants to run the ball, then run it some more, then run it again. If they can do that effectively, they are in good shape. If not, I just don't know where McCarthy is. He started out with an insanely high completion percentage but lately he has been barely mediocre:
- vs Illinois: 18-34 for 208 yards, no TD, no INT, QBR of 46.7. 6.1 yards per attempt, 11.6 per completion.
- vs Nebraska: 8-17 for 129 yards, 2 TD, no INT, QBR of 50.5. 7.6 yards per attempt, 16.1 per completion.
- vs Rutgers: 13-27 for 151 yards, 2 TD, no INT, QBR of 85.8. 5.6 yards per attempt, 11.6 per completion.
- vs MSU: 15-25 for 167 yards, 1 TD, no INT, QBR of 64.4. 6.4 yards per attempt, 11.1 per completion.
That is where I see a potential for this game to get out of hand against the Wolverines. If they can't run effectively either because tOSU stops it or because they get in a hole passing just isn't their thing and completing right around 50% of their passes just isn't going to cut it.
OTOH, I can see it getting out of hand the other way basically if last year repeats. If Ohio State can't contain Michigan's rushing game, Harbaugh will just keep running and running and running and all of Ohio State's offensive firepower will spend most of the afternoon as spectators.
A bad potential for Michigan:
The Wolverines have had a lot of slow starts this year.
@Mdot21 will tell you that they make great adjustments and are a second half team. Against PSU I can buy that but against Rutgers and Indiana not so much. Michigan was down 17-3 against Rutgers at the half and tied 10 all against Indiana at the half. That isn't because they make good halftime adjustments, that is because they played a couple bad halves of football. For comparison, tOSU led both teams 28-7 at halftime. Even in the PSU game which ended up being a blowout and easily Michigan's most impressive win of the year, recall that the Nittany Lions led 17-16 early in the third quarter.
In all three games, Michigan's early struggles were largely a product of issues converting drives into points. Ie, they were moving the ball but they weren't getting TD's out of it. Michigan's first half drives against IU:
- 5 plays, 77 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
- 8 plays, 49 yards, FG - had a 1st and 10 on the IU 28 and ran three plays for 2 yards.
- 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
- 8 plays, 34 yards, missed FG - They got possession at the IU 34 from an INT drove to 1st and goal at the IU7 then went backwards and had a chip-shot FG blocked.
- 8 plays, 39 yards, downs
Michigan's first half possessions against PSU:
- 11 plays, 64 yards, FG - had a 1st and 10 on the PSU 17 and got 6 yards on 3 plays to kick a chip-shot FG
- 13 plays, 77 yards, FG - had a 1st and goal on the 6 and 2nd and goal on the 2 then lost yardage on back-to-back plays before a chip-shot FG
- 13 plays, 70 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 33 yards, Pick-6
- 11 plays, 60 yards, FG - had a 3rd and 2 on the PSU 5 and got stopped for a chip-shot FG
Michigan's first half possessions against RU:
- 12 plays, 75 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt blocked for an RU TD
- 6 plays, 50 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 10 yards, punt
- 9 plays, 30 yards, missed FG
- 8 plays, 36 yards, missed FG
I see this as a potential big problem for Michigan because Ohio State's offense is (or at least can be when they are clicking) MUCH better than IU's, PSU's, or RU's. If they give up a pick-6 like they did against PSU or a punt block TD like they did against RU and also get stopped for FG's or FG attempts then even if they move the ball reasonably effectively (like they did against IU, PSU, and RU) they could still find themselves in a REALLY deep hole at halftime. The Hoosier, Lion, and Knight offenses were not good enough to take advantage. Michigan's struggles merely let them hang around until Michigan put them away in the second half but Ohio State's offense if a different beast.
A bad potential for Ohio State:
If Michigan can contain Ohio State's rushing game without extra defenders then it could be a really long day for the Buckeyes. For an example, Schiano had Rutgers' defense set up to prevent tOSU from scorching them through the air. It worked, Stroud was a rather pedestrian 13/22 for 154 yards with 2TD's and a pick. That is only 7 yards per attempt and 11.8 per completion. The problem is that in order to do that the Scarlet Knights had to leave themselves at the mercy of Ohio State's running game and Miyan Williams absolutely torched them. He had 189 yards on only 21 carries (an insane average of 9 yards per) and tied a program record with five rushing TD's.
Michigan's defense is a completely different beast. They *MIGHT* be able to copy Rutgers' approach to neutralize Stroud but still be able to contain tOSU's running game simply because their athletes are a lot better than Rutgers'. If so then the Buckeyes are in trouble.
