CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on November 21, 2022, 09:14:58 AM
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The Buckeyes are favored by 8 give or take. Toe meets leather a little past Noon on Saturday.
Both teams are dealing with injuries. The Buckeyes looked less sickly than Michigan last Saturday. Michigan has to heal some key injuries, Corum, Edwards, Keegan, Henning, and Schoonmaker, and for QB McCarthy to play better in order to have a chance in Columbus.
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Buckeyecraaazy texted me right after the game that it was a horrible offensive game and she needs answers. She can't tell how good or bad this team actually is.
Must be nice to have so many doubts and questions about your undefeated team.
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Must be nice to have so many doubts and questions about your undefeated team.
:57:
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Buckeyecraaazy texted me right after the game that it was a horrible offensive game and she needs answers. She can't tell how good or bad this team actually is.
Must be nice to have so many doubts and questions about your undefeated team.
Well last I heard she was out in Cali,so there's that
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Buckeyecraaazy texted me right after the game that it was a horrible offensive game and she needs answers. She can't tell how good or bad this team actually is.
Must be nice to have so many doubts and questions about your undefeated team.
Miss having her around. She was a great presence with this group for a long time. Please convince her to stop by the board.
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"insider" over on M boards saying Corum, Donovan Edwards, Mike Morris, Luke Schoonmaker, and Trevor Keegan will all be back playing vs Ohio State- and not only that but all could've played vs Illinois but were held out as precaution not to re-aggrivate injuries- basically that they were saving these guys for Ohio State. hope that is the case.
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Wish I could say the same about JSN,hopefully quietly reloading
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiHkN-eUoAARU9P?format=jpg&name=small)
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Jeffrey Dahmer vs. the Unabomber. America's greatest rivalry
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Also, I love how people are saying the Jeffrey Dahmer biopic is is insensitive, while South Park 15 years ago...
https://youtu.be/NIVpMcrr-RU
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Jeffrey Dahmer vs. the Unabomber. America's greatest rivalry
I remember being in NYC awhile ago and some Ohioan trying to associate me with the one time Buckeye student (myself a Milwaukee native) and the dipshit had no idea when I informed him of Dahmer's first taste for murder was in Ohio.
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Yeah, with OSU's proximity to the Short North, it would have been like living next door to a smorgasbord for him.
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"insider" over on M boards saying Corum, Donovan Edwards, Mike Morris, Luke Schoonmaker, and Trevor Keegan will all be back playing vs Ohio State- and not only that but all could've played vs Illinois but were held out as precaution not to re-aggrivate injuries- basically that they were saving these guys for Ohio State. hope that is the case.
I think offensive genius Jim Harbaugh determined that the Illinois game was meaningless relative to the Big Ten championship and held players out to heal more fully for The Game.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiHkN-eUoAARU9P?format=jpg&name=small)
I'd have thought being surrounded by water makes it harder to infiltrate.
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Miss having her around. She was a great presence with this group for a long time. Please convince her to stop by the board.
Will do. Hope you're doing well.
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Jeffrey Dahmer vs. the Unabomber. America's greatest rivalry
Michigan gets Leopold and Loeb too, well not both but one of them went to Michigan and I don't feel like looking up which one.
If you are not familiar they were very intelligent gay lovers who murdered a young boy in Chicago basically just because they thought they were smarter than everybody else and wanted to prove it to themselves by getting away with a murder. This was in about 1920ish, and they were defended by Clarence Darrow who conceded their guilt but argued against the death penalty mostly on the basis of Loepold on Loeb's relative youth.
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As far as the game, I think the haze surrounding the injury situation on both sides makes it nigh on to impossible to make an projections.
Obviously all guys on both sides are going to want to play, games like these are why you play the game. It is possible that JSN and Treyvon Henderson are back at full strength along with Miyan Williams. On the other side it is possible that Corum and Edwards are back at full strength.
I don't frankly trust the injury reports out of either camp. If I were either coach I'd want to keep things hazy. For example, lets say that Corum is done for the season. If I were Jim Harbaugh, I wouldn't admit that. I'd make the Buckeyes prepare to defend him by claiming that there wasn't any structural damage and he'll play. I'm not saying that IS what is going on and I certainly hope not, I wouldn't wish injury on anyone, not even a Wolverine, I'm just saying that I see this as a distinct possibility. Also, I don't mean that to pick on Michigan, I would expect Day to play the same game. Thus, I don't think we really know who is going to be truly ready to go and we will not know until a little after noon on Saturday.
Honestly, I can see this game being a tight one or getting out of hand either way. My thoughts:
Michigan wants to run the ball, then run it some more, then run it again. If they can do that effectively, they are in good shape. If not, I just don't know where McCarthy is. He started out with an insanely high completion percentage but lately he has been barely mediocre:
- vs Illinois: 18-34 for 208 yards, no TD, no INT, QBR of 46.7. 6.1 yards per attempt, 11.6 per completion.
- vs Nebraska: 8-17 for 129 yards, 2 TD, no INT, QBR of 50.5. 7.6 yards per attempt, 16.1 per completion.
- vs Rutgers: 13-27 for 151 yards, 2 TD, no INT, QBR of 85.8. 5.6 yards per attempt, 11.6 per completion.
- vs MSU: 15-25 for 167 yards, 1 TD, no INT, QBR of 64.4. 6.4 yards per attempt, 11.1 per completion.
That is where I see a potential for this game to get out of hand against the Wolverines. If they can't run effectively either because tOSU stops it or because they get in a hole passing just isn't their thing and completing right around 50% of their passes just isn't going to cut it.
OTOH, I can see it getting out of hand the other way basically if last year repeats. If Ohio State can't contain Michigan's rushing game, Harbaugh will just keep running and running and running and all of Ohio State's offensive firepower will spend most of the afternoon as spectators.
A bad potential for Michigan:
The Wolverines have had a lot of slow starts this year. @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) will tell you that they make great adjustments and are a second half team. Against PSU I can buy that but against Rutgers and Indiana not so much. Michigan was down 17-3 against Rutgers at the half and tied 10 all against Indiana at the half. That isn't because they make good halftime adjustments, that is because they played a couple bad halves of football. For comparison, tOSU led both teams 28-7 at halftime. Even in the PSU game which ended up being a blowout and easily Michigan's most impressive win of the year, recall that the Nittany Lions led 17-16 early in the third quarter.
In all three games, Michigan's early struggles were largely a product of issues converting drives into points. Ie, they were moving the ball but they weren't getting TD's out of it. Michigan's first half drives against IU:
- 5 plays, 77 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
- 8 plays, 49 yards, FG - had a 1st and 10 on the IU 28 and ran three plays for 2 yards.
- 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
- 8 plays, 34 yards, missed FG - They got possession at the IU 34 from an INT drove to 1st and goal at the IU7 then went backwards and had a chip-shot FG blocked.
- 8 plays, 39 yards, downs
Michigan's first half possessions against PSU:
- 11 plays, 64 yards, FG - had a 1st and 10 on the PSU 17 and got 6 yards on 3 plays to kick a chip-shot FG
- 13 plays, 77 yards, FG - had a 1st and goal on the 6 and 2nd and goal on the 2 then lost yardage on back-to-back plays before a chip-shot FG
- 13 plays, 70 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 33 yards, Pick-6
- 11 plays, 60 yards, FG - had a 3rd and 2 on the PSU 5 and got stopped for a chip-shot FG
Michigan's first half possessions against RU:
- 12 plays, 75 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt blocked for an RU TD
- 6 plays, 50 yards, TD
- 5 plays, 10 yards, punt
- 9 plays, 30 yards, missed FG
- 8 plays, 36 yards, missed FG
I see this as a potential big problem for Michigan because Ohio State's offense is (or at least can be when they are clicking) MUCH better than IU's, PSU's, or RU's. If they give up a pick-6 like they did against PSU or a punt block TD like they did against RU and also get stopped for FG's or FG attempts then even if they move the ball reasonably effectively (like they did against IU, PSU, and RU) they could still find themselves in a REALLY deep hole at halftime. The Hoosier, Lion, and Knight offenses were not good enough to take advantage. Michigan's struggles merely let them hang around until Michigan put them away in the second half but Ohio State's offense if a different beast.
A bad potential for Ohio State:
If Michigan can contain Ohio State's rushing game without extra defenders then it could be a really long day for the Buckeyes. For an example, Schiano had Rutgers' defense set up to prevent tOSU from scorching them through the air. It worked, Stroud was a rather pedestrian 13/22 for 154 yards with 2TD's and a pick. That is only 7 yards per attempt and 11.8 per completion. The problem is that in order to do that the Scarlet Knights had to leave themselves at the mercy of Ohio State's running game and Miyan Williams absolutely torched them. He had 189 yards on only 21 carries (an insane average of 9 yards per) and tied a program record with five rushing TD's.
Michigan's defense is a completely different beast. They *MIGHT* be able to copy Rutgers' approach to neutralize Stroud but still be able to contain tOSU's running game simply because their athletes are a lot better than Rutgers'. If so then the Buckeyes are in trouble.
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One more numbers view because I'm a numbers guy. I track both teams against their opponents based on Sagrin rankings, here is Michigan:
(https://i.imgur.com/gJbvCkJ.png)
Optimistic view for tOSU / pessimistic view for M:
Simple, the PSU game is an outlier. Look at the above chart. The next best team that Michigan beat by at least as many points as PSU is #73 Nebraska. Against their other three top-50 opponents, Michigan won by 13, 2, and 7. That is fine but it isn't anywhere close to CFP caliber. It is what you'd expect from a team around #20 or so. Maybe Michigan isn't actually all that good and the PSU game was just some combination of a great day for Michigan or a horrible day for Penn State?
Pessimistic view for tOSU / optimistic view for M:
Maybe there is a reason that Michigan performed so far off from their norm against Penn State. Maybe they are just a team that rises to the occasion in big games. That is easily their biggest so far this year and they did. Maybe they'll do the same thing on Saturday?
Here is Ohio State:
(https://i.imgur.com/q5brEOB.png)
Optimistic view for M / pessimistic view for tOSU:
The wins against Iowa and Wisconsin look great but beating PSU, ND, and UMD by only 13, 11, and 13 suggests that the Buckeyes are hardly unbeatable. Michigan is better than any of those teams.
Pessimistic view for M / Optimistic view for tOSU:
Even when they have struggled the Buckeyes haven't won a game by less than 11 points and in the almost three months since Labor Day weekend they haven't won a game by less than 13. A few teams have stopped parts of tOSU's offense but the Buckeyes have simply overwhelmed them with the other parts. A few teams have had offensive success against the Buckeyes but success is a relative term, they still lost by at least two scores. Also, the teams that have had the most offensive success against Ohio State were Penn State (31) and Maryland (30). Both of them did it through the air which isn't Michigan's comfort zone. Penn State had 371 yards passing and only 111 rushing. Maryland had 318 passing and only 84 rushing. Could Michigan play that kind of game even if they wanted to? Do they want to?
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You can analyze this game to death.
These games are rarely as expected.
Both teams are quite capable of beating the other. Who actually does it?
I am confident we won’t see Trayvon Henderson, JSN or starting right guard Matthew Jones for OSU. We may see a limited version of Miyan Williams. We might see a limited version and limit snaps for Mike Hall, The buckeyes best defensive tackle by far.
The assumption is that we will see a fully healthy Blake Corum and as Jim Knowles said today, if you’re in the wrong place he will make you pay.
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damn that was a hefty post. that's why I love reading your stuff, detail oriented.
JJ hasn't been top notch past few weeks but to be frank his WRs are also doing him no favors. The drops from receivers have been brutal and miscommunication on routes has been bad as well. Andrel Anthony finally got some run only to drop a DIME by JJ on a 4th and 3 that was a sure-fire TD that hit him in both hands. Refs screwed that play up as Illinois jumped off-sides and never threw the flag. Resulted in turnover on downs. Yes JJ missed a wide open Colston Loveland in the end zone for a TD and threw the check down to the 4th/5th string 175 pound walk-on RB Isaiah Gash- who had a sure 1st down only to....drop the football. Kid probably has zero confidence in his WR group and himself right now. It'd be hard not to.
Michigan was down it's starting LG, RT, #1 TE (which technically I'm not really counting bc he's been gone all season), #2 TE, #2 RB, and their #1 RB in the second half. Of course the offense was going to struggle. I think Erick All not being there has really hurt this offense tremendously as well. He was by far the best blocking TE they had and the most explosive/athletic one as well. Schoonmaker and Colston Loveland aren't catching a crossing route and taking it 50 yards to the house like All can. They don't have his top end speed, not even close. All was a much more dangerous weapon in the passing game than any TE they had. That hurts a passing game that was already anemic greatly.
Anywhoo....like medina said, probably doesn't even make sense to talk about injuries as neither coach is going to tip their hands. We're just going to have to wait until kickoff to find out who is playing.
As for Corum, it's obviously nothing serious like ACL/MCL/PCL or torn meniscus. Most likely a knee bruise. Which can probably take anywhere from 1-4 weeks to heal. Just depends on the severity of it and how much pain he's going to have. Even if he's playing he won't be at 100%. But this time of year- what player is 100%?
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You can analyze this game to death.
These games are rarely as expected.
Both teams are quite capable of beating the other. Who actually does it?
I am confident we won’t see Trayvon Henderson, JSN or starting right guard Matthew Jones for OSU. We may see a limited version of Miyan Williams. We might see a limited version and limit snaps for Mike Hall, The buckeyes best defensive tackle by far.
The assumption is that we will see a fully healthy Blake Corum and as Jim Knowles said today, if you’re in the wrong place he will make you pay.
pretty much my thoughts.
did anyone expect that out come in 2021? anyone expect that outcome in 2018? I sure as hell didn't for either.
this one is always a doozy. and you can almost always expect the unexpected.
as far as players/injuries- we probably ain't gonna no sh*t til kickoff. neither staff is going to divulge injury info. why would they?
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damn that was a hefty post. that's why I love reading your stuff, detail oriented.
I got a hefty detail oriented post - REVENGE
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I got a hefty detail oriented post - REVENGE
if we're talking strictly REVENGE here, Michigan owes OSU a few more arse kickings after the last 20 years they just went through getting their asses pummeled in by OSU pretty much every year.
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pretty good CFB podcast called CFB Nerds. Their computer model predicts Ohio State wins 28-26. The hosts both pick Ohio State to win, one 31-17 the other 34-21.
https://youtu.be/IYWiXv2C--Y
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found this NCAA football computer simulation.
https://www.ncaagamesim.com/
These computer simulations don't mean jack but it had Ohio State winning 31-30. If it's a 1 or 2 point game...man have to think the loser still has a great shot getting into that playoff. USC is no lock to beat ND and Oregon. And I don't care what Clemson does- they shouldn't be in the playoff period imo.
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if we're talking strictly REVENGE here, Michigan owes OSU a few more arse kickings after the last 20 years they just went through getting their asses pummeled in by OSU pretty much every year.
Sorry we still have a few to catch up all time and it's reachable in my time here.Gotta look at the big picture.And agreed dabo doesn't deserve a spot in the top 8.At least 3 teams from the SEC and one or two from the BIG would woodshed them
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found this NCAA football computer simulation.
https://www.ncaagamesim.com/
These computer simulations don't mean jack but it had Ohio State winning 31-30. If it's a 1 or 2 point game...man have to think the loser still has a great shot getting into that playoff. USC is no lock to beat ND and Oregon. And I don't care what Clemson does- they shouldn't be in the playoff period imo.
It is definitely possible but I think there are two things that make it unlikely even if things go right elsewhere:
- If Michigan is the 11-1 team their pathetic OOC is going to be an issue. Their win over PSU might be their only win over a ranked team.
- If Ohio State is the 11-1 team their losing AT HOME to Michigan is going to be an issue.
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And agreed dabo doesn't deserve a spot in the top 8.At least 3 teams from the SEC and one or two from the BIG would woodshed them
I assume you mean tOSU as the "one" and M as the "or two", I'd add Penn State and say three.
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this game usually comes down to who is the most physical at the point of attack- who wins the trenches. rarely if ever remember it coming down to an aerial assault. maybe 2018 when Haskins went nuts and threw for like 400 and 6 TDs and slang it all over the field and dropped a 60 burger on Michigan? 2019 they whooped Michigan's ass pretty bad too but that was more running game than all out aerial assault.
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From our old friend Pete Fiutak over at College Football News
Michigan vs Ohio State Prediction Game Preview
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews (http://twitter.com/Colfootballnews) & @PeteFiutak (http://twitter.com/PeteFiutak)
Michigan vs Ohio State How To Watch
Date: Saturday, November 26
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
How To Watch: FOX
Record: Michigan (11-0), Ohio State (11-0)
Why Michigan Will Win
Even for Ohio State, the injuries at the skill spots are a problem.
CJ Stroud is still being CJ Stroud, but the other stars in the backfield – Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson – are trying to battle through leg problems, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t been right all year, and last week it almost took its toll.
Again, it’s Ohio State so it all turned out fine in a 43-30 win over Maryland, but the 401 yards were alarmingly low at a point in the season when everything is supposed to be humming.
Now the Buckeye offense has to deal with the No. 1 defense in college football.
The Wolverine run defense is allowing fewer than three yards per carry, the pass D hasn’t allowed anyone to get to 270 yards, and it’s got enough of a presence in the backfield and is strong enough on third downs to keep the Buckeyes from clicking.
On the other side, Michigan’s offensive style should be a big, big problem for a team that hasn’t exactly dealt with a slew of killer running games.
With or without Blake Corum carrying the ball, the Michigan O line should be able to blast away as the game goes on – the 168 rushing yards against Illinois was a better performance than it might seem – turnovers aren’t an issue with just six spread out over the first 11 games, and …
Why Ohio State Will Win
Rutgers, Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado State, UConn, and Hawaii.
Michigan has faced seven of the 35 least-productive offenses in college football, and Michigan State isn’t far off. Penn State and its 37th-best offense is the most talented it faced all year, and Maryland is as close as it’s been to dealing with a dangerous passing attack.
It’s Michigan. Like Ohio State it has options if Corum can’t go on his injured leg, but no … it’s not Ohio State. The high-end star power isn’t there among the backups to step in and shine like Dallan Hayden did last week for the Buckeyes against Maryland with 146 rushing yards and three scores.
But the offensive line really is that good. It’s going to pound away, and Ohio State’s run defense will have its rough moments. However, it’s asking a lot for the Michigan passing attack to come through when needed.
JJ McCarthy has been fine, but against a slew of mediocre teams over the last four games – not including Illinois – he hasn’t been able to hit 60% of his passes.
What worked against the Nebraska’s and Michigan State’s of the world won’t fly against the Buckeyes.
This is a pressure-leads-to-breaking Michigan offense. Eventually the pounding takes over and the points and yards come in the second half. That didn’t work against the great Illinois defense last week – it didn’t help that Corum got hurt – and there’s going to be a big, big problem if the Buckeyes get up early.
What’s Going To Happen
Ohio State is already amazing, but it takes on a whole other level when it has a score to settle.
The 2020 team didn’t sort of focused all year on winning the national title, and it always wants to beat Michigan, but there was another theme. That team wanted Clemson after the pain and suffering in the College Football Playoff the season before, and it came out rocking with a 49-28 win in the semifinal.
This might be a national title-level team, but to know anything about this program is to get that the last year has been all about getting Michigan out of its head.
Michigan is very, very good, though – it isn’t going to get pushed around.
Ohio State will get up fast, the Wolverines will fight back and make it interesting, and then Stroud and company will kick it in and exorcise the demon early in the fourth quarter.
Michigan vs Ohio State Prediction, Line
Ohio State 30, Michigan 20
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Michigan WR Henning and Ohio State WR Harrison are already in a battle.
https://www.tiktok.com/@ajhenning/video/7168994478626262318?_r=1&_t=8XarkhHdVXy&is_from_webapp=v1&item_id=7168994478626262318 (https://www.tiktok.com/@ajhenning/video/7168994478626262318?_r=1&_t=8XarkhHdVXy&is_from_webapp=v1&item_id=7168994478626262318)
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Oh, and...
GO BLUE!!!
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And take the Horns with you,leave the Titos
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NO WAY Ohio State wins this game.
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NO WAY Ohio State wins this game.
your voodoo magic won't work this time.
Congrats on the win Ohio State fans. Y'all had a great season. Michigan just isn't quite there at the OSU level yet. Getting closer though imo. Need to see more development out of the passing game in 2023.
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your voodoo magic won't work this time.
Are you mocking the Football Gods? :86:
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this game features two of PFF's top 3 graded defenses in all of CFB.
I'd wager that Aidan Hutchinson has a great shot at winning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Which if he does, means the last like 6 out of 7 will have come from the B1G.
*2022 - DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan - IF he keeps this pace up on he's been on (which I think he will)*
2021- OLB/DE Micah Parsons, Penn State
2020- DE Chase Young, Ohio St
2019- DE Nick Bosa, Ohio St
2018- LB Darius Leonard, South Carolina State
2017- CB Marshawn Lattimore, Ohio St
2016- DE Joey Bosa, Ohio St
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1595433741119258625?s=20&t=vVcEzLBtHUqXS9X-QoakqQ
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Are you mocking the Football Gods? :86:
no. would never. merely saying his attempt at voodoo magic won't work. Of course there is a way OSU will win. They should win. They are 7.5 point home favorites, ranked higher, and have a better roster.
I honestly don't see a path forward for Michigan to win this game with Corum and Edwards both banged up. JJ has been solid, good, not great- he's shown flashes but he's been inconsistent and so has that passing game and WRs in general. Not confident in the WRs or JJ getting it done- NEED the running game firing and clicking on all cylinders, period. I think Corum and Edwards may both play but I have no idea and none of us will until the game starts. BIG question if they both play is how healthy are they? Are they 90% or better? I think you can win with that. Anything less than that- gonna be tough. Michigan just doesn't have anything behind those two guys- and those guys are their entire offense.
Michigan's 3rd RB is a 195 pound true frosh CJ Stokes who has had fumbling issues. He fumbled the ball out of bounds vs Illinois and was never seen from again the rest of the game late in the 4th QTR. Their 4th string RB Tavierre Dunlap has been injured all year basically. Their 5th string RB is a 175 pound walk-on Isiah Gash who no offense to him- stinks. He should stink. He's a 175 pound walk-on.
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https://twitter.com/DrewCHallett/status/1595448211384291329?s=20&t=9-HbF9LnEB6v5qtXrASMGA
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I give Michigan a decent shot in this game, "The Game" because they got the monkey off their back last year.
They think they can lineup and play with the Buckeyes.
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pretty good CFB podcast called CFB Nerds. Their computer model predicts Ohio State wins 28-26. The hosts both pick Ohio State to win, one 31-17 the other 34-21.
https://youtu.be/IYWiXv2C--Y
They had some interesting thoughts.
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Are you mocking the Football Gods? :86:
Yes,yes he is and he's attempting to play us like a cheap violin but the God's can see thru this ruse
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If someone forced me to pick, I'd have to go with tOSU. But I think Michigan has a shot. Should be a lot of fun to watch. Outside of my own team, this is my favorite one to watch every season.
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no. would never. merely saying his attempt at voodoo magic won't work. Of course there is a way OSU will win. They should win. They are 7.5 point home favorites, ranked higher, and have a better roster.
I honestly don't see a path forward for Michigan to win this game with Corum and Edwards both banged up. JJ has been solid, good, not great- he's shown flashes but he's been inconsistent and so has that passing game and WRs in general. Not confident in the WRs or JJ getting it done- NEED the running game firing and clicking on all cylinders, period. I think Corum and Edwards may both play but I have no idea and none of us will until the game starts. BIG question if they both play is how healthy are they? Are they 90% or better? I think you can win with that. Anything less than that- gonna be tough. Michigan just doesn't have anything behind those two guys- and those guys are their entire offense.
Michigan's 3rd RB is a 195 pound true frosh CJ Stokes who has had fumbling issues. He fumbled the ball out of bounds vs Illinois and was never seen from again the rest of the game late in the 4th QTR. Their 4th string RB Tavierre Dunlap has been injured all year basically. Their 5th string RB is a 175 pound walk-on Isiah Gash who no offense to him- stinks. He should stink. He's a 175 pound walk-on.
In this game, throw everything out of the window. It will be a battle and we won't know anything until the fat lady sings. I hope for a good game and a Buckeye win.
And by the way, MICHIGAN STILL SUCKS. :sign0151:
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In this game, throw everything out of the window. It will be a battle and we won't know anything until the fat lady sings. I hope for a good game and a Buckeye win.
And by the way, MICHIGAN STILL SUCKS. :sign0151:
I will say I pretty much agree with ya there except for the last part lol.
This game truly is a throw the record books out and expect the unexpected. I just hope for a great game and good showing by Michigan. I want to see an all timer epic battle that goes down to the wire like ‘06.
I think with a close loss they could back door their way in the playoff if USC trips up. If they get blown off the field like they did in ‘18 and ‘19- no shot.
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I like Dallan Hayden alot - he needs little daylight to get thru the seems/holes.That is something Zeke and JK Dobbins excelled at.Hayden follows blocks and daylight extremely well.Not sure about his speed but he certainly seems fast enough. No east-west stutter stepping - as much as there is to like about Henderson he does it enough to be irritating.I hope Williams/Henderson are ready to go,haven't seen a forecast yet but either way I like the Scarlett & Gray's chances
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I like Dallan Hayden alot - he needs little daylight to get thru the seems/holes.That is something Zeke and JK Dobbins excelled at.Hayden follows blocks and daylight extremely well.Not sure about his speed but he certainly seems fast enough. No east-west stutter stepping - as much as there is to like about Henderson he does it enough to be irritating.I hope Williams/Henderson are ready to go,haven't seen a forecast yet but either way I like the Scarlett & Gray's chances
Hayden is going to be good. He is patient and charges through gaps and has tremendous speed. But, he’s truly a freshman and he has not gotten big enough yet to be a tackle breaker. That will come when he’s been in the program another year or two.
Both Henderson in Williams or actually great running backs when they’re healthy, but both of them are doing a little bit too much dancing in the hole because of their injuries and seem to be shying away from contact which is not how they normally are. Especially Miyan.
I will be really surprised if we see all that much of them on Saturday. They’ve been banged up badly for weeks now.
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Michigan is 0-6 vs Ohio State when in Columbus and both teams are ranked in the top 5.
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Hayden is going to be good. He is patient and charges through gaps and has tremendous speed. But, he’s truly a freshman and he has not gotten big enough yet to be a tackle breaker. That will come when he’s been in the program another year or two.
Both Henderson in Williams or actually great running backs when they’re healthy, but both of them are doing a little bit too much dancing in the hole because of their injuries and seem to be shying away from contact which is not how they normally are. Especially Miyan.
I will be really surprised if we see all that much of them on Saturday. They’ve been banged up badly for weeks now.
Off the top of my head Clarett,Ginn,Gamble all started as true freshmen.As much as there is to like about Henderson I agree with most of the posters on 11 Warriors.He needs to stop with the east-west running,juking back & forth.The pursuit is just too fast before moving forward.Hayden flies to the hole and finds the crease and follows blocks.Hopefully Williams/Henderson are both able to play
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I will say I pretty much agree with ya there except for the last part lol.
I understand. It's that week and I cannot neglect to mention it. :singing:
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Ryan Day's offense lost this game and they did it in the first half.
The final stats say Michigan outgained the Buckeyes 530-492 but that is AFTER Michigan ran away at the end.
After Ohio State's FG cut it to eight the Wolverines had two possessions, 168 yards, two TD's. Ohio State had two possessions, 71 yards, two picks.
Jim Knowles' defense shut down Michigan for what should have been long enough but the failure to convert yards into points in the first half and the failure to do much of anything in the second half just put way too much pressure on the Ohio State defense.
Second thing, credit to JJ McCarthy. Early in the game Ohio State effectively stopped Michigan's rushing game and JJ did just enough to keep them in the game.
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Sort of I think he really shyt it up in the 3rd tthough.Booger was right Day was born on 3rd base.The offensive line delivered today and he didn't go deep.You could get a call a catch,maybe a pick but freakin' toss the ball
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Michigan really has been a 2nd half team all year. Today was no different.
2nd half:
Michigan- 28, Ohio State- 3
Michigan rushing yards in 2nd half: 242. Ohio State rushing yards in 2nd half: 19.
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Day didn't throw deep at all in the 3rd - that was the head scratcher.Momentum can shift to quickly and they didn't seem to get it back
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Michigan really has been a 2nd half team all year. Today was no different.
2nd half:
Michigan- 28, Ohio State- 3
Michigan rushing yards in 2nd half: 242. Ohio State rushing yards in 2nd half: 19.
Completely agree. Early in Harbaugh’s Michigan career, his 2nd halfs were not good and I thought he was outcoached often. This year, he has had very good 2nd half’s.
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Knowles dared JJ to beat them with cover zero.
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Knowles dared JJ to beat them with cover zero.
Ya well they coverd zero alright.I understand 8 men up,but 3 should have been back.Well congrats play like that in the CFP
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Knowles dared JJ to beat them with cover zero.
Harbaugh managed to “break” Ryan Day with his comments last year. He has truly created John Cooper 2.0, and it all started with Covid year.
Day has been so intensely focused on running the ball and stopping the run- all season- that he abandoned who he, their identity, how they got there. If you win- who cares if your a “ finesse” team? You recruited great skill players. That doesn’t mean they are not tough.
That’s what made the game so hard to watch. You could see it on the players and staff of the UM players- after Corum went out and Michigan couldn’t run it at all. They knew they were in trouble.
Then OSU had them in 3rd and nine in their own territory, and played a blitz with zero safeties back. UM hits that little out pass, needs to break one tackle and ties the game at 10.
That breathed life into the UM bench, and planted the first seeds of doubt in the OSU bench.
Unbelievably- and Klatt said this- OSU did not change up their defensive scheme. The ONLY thing that could really hurt OSU was deep balls. Yet they stayed with and gave up another. Johnson was so wide open that even a floating wobbler that made him have to slow down and wait- was still an easy TD. Again- more belief on one side of the field, and doubt on the other.
Still- a very close game at half. But somehow, inexplicably- Knowles starts the second half with the same cover Zero- and again, UM gets a TE waaaayyy behind the defense. Another easy throw any HS QB could make, and a lead UM would never relinquish. As Booger McFarland and Klatt said- all OSU needed to do was play a tight zone- make JJ throw into tight windows and drive the whole field, something he struggled with all season.
Meanwhile- Day turtles up and wants to prove how tough they are, and run. He never attacked with his prized assassin of a QB/WRs. He made OSU easy to defend.
you could read the players faces and the coaches faces and the game is pretty much over at that point. The long runs at the end we’re nothing more than adding salt in a wound, and ironically was Michigan’s offensive coordinator taking advantage of the cover zero by motioning a player and leaving the right edge totally unguarded past the line of scrimmage. It was so bad that they ran that play three times. Got long touchdowns on two of them and almost broke one for a long touchdown in between. And still- Knowles never changed the defensive play calls.
Congratulations to you Michigan folks and I mean that sincerely. The game yesterday was an eerie reminder of the Cooper years for those of us who were fans back then. Ohio State clearly had the horses to beat Michigan and probably substantially. But the coaches choked up and their tense approach to this game and the in game results made the players choke up as well.
Harbaugh, in three short years ( and I include the Covid year as that’s what started it) Has turned his weakness into his strength. He was 0-5
Versus OSU. Now he is 2-5, but clearly owns the space in Day’s head. You have to tip your hat to him.
He created a self fulfilling prophecy in Day’s head.
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If Ryan Day goes 11-1 again next year but loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor is he on the hot seat if he loses 3 in a row to Michigan? Jim lost 5 in a row to Ohio State and everyone in Ann Arbor wanted him gone. Well, look at him now.
I understand Ohio St fans are pissed off right now bc losing THE GAME FN SUCKS, but the guy is like 35-2 vs the B1G and 45-5 as a head coach. That’s a pretty awesome win %. You’re not always going to hit home runs on the coaching hire. OSU hit it out the park with Tressel, Urbs, and then Day. A lot of coaching hires are luck imo. Fire Day and the luck might just run out.
I do think Michigan will be favored in 2023 as the game is in Ann Arbor and they’ll be returning most of their team meanwhile OSU is losing a lot heading into 2023.
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also some quick thoughts on this one:
seems like for YEARS that Ohio St has had better RBs than Michigan by a wide margin. Mike Hart was the last legit elite level college RB that Michigan had and he was a 6th rd pick bc he was 195 pounds and ran 4.7. That was back in 2007. 15 years ago. And right before him was Chris Perry in 2003 who was a 1st rd pick. So that’s like two LEGIT RBs in like 20 years.
That has shifted. This team has two LEGIT future NFL RBs on its roster right now in Corum and Edwards and both guys are better than any RBs on OSU roster by a good margin imo.
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If Ryan Day goes 11-1 again next year but loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor is he on the hot seat if he loses 3 in a row to Michigan? Jim lost 5 in a row to Ohio State and everyone in Ann Arbor wanted him gone. Well, look at him now.
I understand Ohio St fans are pissed off right now bc losing THE GAME FN SUCKS, but the guy is like 35-2 vs the B1G and 45-5 as a head coach. That’s a pretty awesome win %. You’re not always going to hit home runs on the coaching hire. OSU hit it out the park with Tressel, Urbs, and then Day. A lot of coaching hires are luck imo. Fire Day and the luck might just run out.
I do think Michigan will be favored in 2023 as the game is in Ann Arbor and they’ll be returning most of their team meanwhile OSU is losing a lot heading into 2023.
Go read the OSU forums lol. More than half want him gone now.
yes- like all fan bases- they are overreacting and have been spoiled by 2 decades of dominance in the series. I certainly don’t agree with them.
The way the game unfolded is the main thing- it reminded me of the year Ron springs fell and Griese hit that short slant pass for a touchdown.
The players got so tested up they couldn’t function That comes from coaching. That kind of happened again yesterday.
The same players who took over every time they faced adversity this season came up limp. These fans got used to the opposite in these rivalry games with Urban and Tressel. It was the the Wolverines who stepped up their game- the fans aren’t used to that and are in complete meltdown. You have seen it on your side many times.
But clearly- it can all be tied to coaching.
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Go read the OSU forums lol. More than half want him gone now.
yes- like all fan bases- they are overreacting and have been spoiled by 2 decades of dominance in the series. I certainly don’t agree with them.
The way the game unfolded is the main thing- it reminded me of the year Ron springs fell and Griese hit that short slant pass for a touchdown.
The players got so tested up they couldn’t function That comes from coaching. That kind of happened again yesterday.
The same players who took over every time they faced adversity this season came up limp. These fans got used to the opposite in these rivalry games with Urban and Tressel. It was the the Wolverines who stepped up their game- the fans aren’t used to that and are in complete meltdown. You have seen it on your side many times.
But clearly- it can all be tied to coaching.
I hear. I just think it’d be a mistake to get rid of him even if he loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor but has 10-11 wins. He’s losing a lot, Michigan is returning a lot, and the game is in Ann Arbor.
I WOULD think 2024 would be his put up or shut up year with the game in Columbus and with him having a new QB that he’s developed over 2 seasons.
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also some quick thoughts on this one:
seems like for YEARS that Ohio St has had better RBs than Michigan by a wide margin. Mike Hart was the last legit elite level college RB that Michigan had and he was a 6th rd pick bc he was 195 pounds and ran 4.7. That was back in 2007. 15 years ago. And right before him was Chris Perry in 2003 who was a 1st rd pick. So that’s like two LEGIT RBs in like 20 years.
That has shifted. This team has two LEGIT future NFL RBs on its roster right now in Corum and Edwards and both guys are better than any RBs on OSU roster by a good margin imo.
While true about the running backs, and Michigan does have better running backs in Ohio State by far, I actually don’t think that had anything to do with Yesterdays results.
Michigans run game shined only when the outcome was pretty much decided. And that’s my point. Edwards was a non factor until UM was up 2 scores. Michigan had defeated them already. Mentally.
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While true about the running backs, and Michigan does have better running backs in Ohio State by far, I actually don’t think that had anything to do with Yesterdays results.
Michigans run game shined only when the outcome was pretty much decided. And that’s my point. Edwards was a non factor until UM was up 2 scores. Michigan had defeated them already. Mentally.
I hear ya. Just used to OSU having the much better RBs for years and then having to watch them hit long back breaking runs in THE GAME- like they did with Beanie Wells, Carlos Hyde, Zeke, JK Dobbins, etc., etc.. OSU went on a nice run there pumping out 1st/2nd rd backs. Michigan finally has a pair that I think will go somewhere in the top 2 rounds in Corum and Edwards. I think Corum will go 2nd if he runs 4.4 and is 210ish. Edwards I think gonna be 1st rounder- that kid is speccccial. Problem is- they don't have much in the way after those two and Corum is off to the '23 NFL Draft. Have to try to flip a stud in 2023 or hit the portal hard.
Thought Henderson was going to be NEXT at Ohio State after that great freshman year- but he's struggled with injuries this year and when he did play this year he doesn't seem any bigger or stronger or more physical or better at breaking arm tackles. Also seems to dance too much and try to bounce everything outside too much. Explosive as all hell but you need more than just that to be a great back. Miyan Williams is a really good but not great back- lacks that top end speed and acceleration that great ones have. Similar to Hassan Haskins- who was a really good back for Michigan- but not quite great.
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HB, on opposite sides of fanhood, we have traditionally seen eye to eye very often. Your long post describing what happened is so unbelievably similar to my stance with my college roommates last night via group text, who are all Buckeye fans. We share, eerily, almost an identical view on this topic and a couple of your points hilarious stand out to me, referencing Cooper, Day’s mindsets and also the crazy part of them not properly using the QB/WR combo which i saw as the deadliest in the nation.
Also, I pointed out the third down blitz and with no safeties and one broken tackle changing the entire mental state of the Michigan bench and team.
When I saw Corum hobble off the field, I text my brother and said, we are in trouble, we can’t run. I thought Michigan’s only chance to win was either going to be fully healthy Donovan, Corum and Mike Morris with some high winds or crummy weather and seeing Corum go out and no running game, Buckeyes and Day would be smart enough to just show how incredible Stroud, Marvin and Egbuka really are. I’ve talked to my buddies a lot this year and consistently said their biggest issue was a poor coaching Ryan Day, trying to make his team something they aren’t, while completely misusing some of the best talent in the nation. I truly think OSU is the more talented team, but John Cooper has come back with a beard and yesterday reminded me of so many games in the 90’s where the Buckeyes were the talk of the nation, yet stumbled to Maize & Blue.
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I truly think OSU is the more talented team
not sure I really buy this line of reasoning. Outside of WR and QB, where OSU has an OVERWHELMING talent advantage to Michigan (especially WR- and ESPECIALLY with a healthy JSN) - I think these teams are pretty much a push, slight Michigan advantage, or slight OSU advantage in terms of talent by positional units.
Like I would take Michigan's DBs over Ohio State's. Rod Moore is the best pure safety that Michigan has had in ages. And he's just getting started. He's better in coverage than any safety on OSU's team. 5* CB Will Johnson has flat out balled out as a true freshman. Wouldn't take any of their CBs over him. DJ Turner is the best CB on either team right now. Mike Sainistril- HOLY shit that kid has been incredible at the nickel spot. He is a better nickel than their nickel, by a lot I think.
The lines of scrimmage are pretty close. Both teams have rock solid OLs. Both teams have rock solid DLs. OSU probably little better at EDGE even with a healthy Mike Morris, Michigan is better at DT. LB probably a wash- both teams have pretty good- not elite LBs. Michigan has the better RBs. Michigan has the better TE depth- especially with a healthy Erick All.
The talent level on both teams is pretty close. Everyone just gets caught up in the QB and WRs because that's what is sexy. And OSU wasn't at full strength there and haven't been all year considering the best WR in CFB is JSN and he's barely played all year. OSU is a different team with a healthy JSN and Marv. Can't double both of them. And while I think CJ is REALLY good- he's also got A LOT of help. He has elite WRs and an elite OL.
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There are definitely positions Michigan has more talent. I’m not saying that every position osu is more talented. I believe osu overall has a higher ceiling talent wise, especially in key positions. They have shown at different moments they can score at will. A good example yesterday was Michigan taking the lead, and Stroud hitting Marvin for a 42 yard touchdown.
Michigan has good talent, but osu has unstoppable talent that could score at will when coached correctly on offense. Of course I would rather have Michigan RBs, secondary, especially Sainistril. I just think overall, OSU has the edge, specifically because that offense could bury a lot of teams if Ryan Day doesn’t want to be a tough guy running over teams and realizes that a good weather day, Stroud should throw it 50 times, with 20+ being deep routes.
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HB, on opposite sides of fanhood, we have traditionally seen eye to eye very often. Your long post describing what happened is so unbelievably similar to my stance with my college roommates last night via group text, who are all Buckeye fans. We share, eerily, almost an identical view on this topic and a couple of your points hilarious stand out to me, referencing Cooper, Day’s mindsets and also the crazy part of them not properly using the QB/WR combo which i saw as the deadliest in the nation.
Also, I pointed out the third down blitz and with no safeties and one broken tackle changing the entire mental state of the Michigan bench and team.
When I saw Corum hobble off the field, I text my brother and said, we are in trouble, we can’t run. I thought Michigan’s only chance to win was either going to be fully healthy Donovan, Corum and Mike Morris with some high winds or crummy weather and seeing Corum go out and no running game, Buckeyes and Day would be smart enough to just show how incredible Stroud, Marvin and Egbuka really are. I’ve talked to my buddies a lot this year and consistently said their biggest issue was a poor coaching Ryan Day, trying to make his team something they aren’t, while completely misusing some of the best talent in the nation. I truly think OSU is the more talented team, but John Cooper has come back with a beard and yesterday reminded me of so many games in the 90’s where the Buckeyes were the talk of the nation, yet stumbled to Maize & Blue.
So we’ll said SM. It was so noticeable that the announcers kept talking about it. The body language changes with each play Michigan made.
Harbaugh, to his major credit had his team confident but relaxed. They on the other hand had his team so tense they became dysfunctional. How many times did they step on their own foot with critical penalties and critical times? Their dB have not been great this year but they have not been horrible either, and yesterday they were completely lost and never even knew where the ball was when it was in the air. It’s called panic. It totally totally looked likeOne of John Cooper’s vintage teams.
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There are definitely positions Michigan has more talent. I’m not saying that every position osu is more talented. I believe osu overall has a higher ceiling talent wise, especially in key positions. They have shown at different moments they can score at will. A good example yesterday was Michigan taking the lead, and Stroud hitting Marvin for a 42 yard touchdown.
Michigan has good talent, but osu has unstoppable talent that could score at will when coached correctly on offense. Of course I would rather have Michigan RBs, secondary, especially Sainistril. I just think overall, OSU has the edge, specifically because that offense could bury a lot of teams if Ryan Day doesn’t want to be a tough guy running over teams and realizes that a good weather day, Stroud should throw it 50 times, with 20+ being deep routes.
Minter was mixing up the coverages. They didn't blitz that much, dropped 7-8 mostly, mixed in zone and man coverages with safety help, and almost always had safeties deep. They very rarely let Marv in 1 on 1 man situations with no safety help. Couple times they did- Stroud-Marv burned them pretty bad.
It's easy to say- hey just chuck it deep all game long- but a lot of that is dictated by the defense. QB/play-caller has to take what the defense gives them and then force them out of it. Minter has been BRILLIANT with his 2nd half adjustments on defense all season. That guy was the hire of the century of Harbaugh. He's an better DC than MacDonald. Jeem really needs to buy his brother John an expensive ass christmas gift and thank his brother for these former Ravens defensive coaches well versed in that Ravens 3-4 scheme.
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So we’ll said SM. It was so noticeable that the announcers kept talking about it. The body language changes with each play Michigan made.
Harbaugh, to his major credit had his team confident but relaxed. They on the other hand had his team so tense they became dysfunctional. How many times did they step on their own foot with critical penalties and critical times? Their dB have not been great this year but they have not been horrible either, and yesterday they were completely lost and never even knew where the ball was when it was in the air. It’s called panic. It totally totally looked likeOne of John Cooper’s vintage teams.
The penalties were bad. The unsportsmanlike were blatant and so were the pass interference calls. Bad to the point there wasn’t even an argument to be made for a borderline call. Ohio State getting the ball at the 50, then suddenly it’s 1st and 35 was crazy. What might have been crazier was punting when it was 4th and 6 and Stroud clearly feeling it. That possession I believe was the nail, especially mentally.
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If Ryan Day goes 11-1 again next year but loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor is he on the hot seat if he loses 3 in a row to Michigan?
To many he's on the hot seat now.I agree with what was discussed on the Buckeye Board when URBZ left Gene Smith rushed in a guy who had no HC experience.All the work Tressel and Meyer has done is gone.Ohio State is back to where it was under John Cooper. The party I was at wondered why the the aerial circus wasn't going deep get a catch or a call,not sure how many passes to the flats were tossed.Fleming was actually hanging onto everything however i saw at least 3 drops from others.But the adjustments or lack there of was the head scratcher.There was no deep offense or defense,the coaches didn't put them in a position to succeed.Some have said that they flat out should cut Day's contract like UM did Harbaugh - make him earn it,find out if he's hungry.No one should get paid 9.5 million to lay an egg on the years biggest assignment - two seasons in a row.In Corporate you'd be fired or the very least not paid
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The penalties were bad. The unsportsmanlike were blatant and so were the pass interference calls. Bad to the point there wasn’t even an argument to be made for a borderline call. Ohio State getting the ball at the 50, then suddenly it’s 1st and 35 was crazy. What might have been crazier was punting when it was 4th and 6 and Stroud clearly feeling it. That possession I believe was the nail, especially mentally.
the penalties and the lack to put it all on the line and go for it on a couple of 4th downs was more glaring to me than lack of deep shots in the pass game in the 2nd half- so was the lack of any kind of trick/special plays just for Michigan. Michigan had that little jump pass that kept a huge drive going. CJ seemed to look confused at times and almost shy away from the moment. McCarthy was putting it all on the line, taking on contact and running over dudes and hitting his wide open deep shots. Knowles refusal to get out of that cover 0 and back off the LOS cost them. Usually when teams have success on a defense it forces them to adjust and get out of their base plays/looks- Knowles never did that. Dude is shades of Don Brown.
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I truly think OSU is the more talented team, but John Cooper has come back with a beard and yesterday reminded me of so many games in the 90’s where the Buckeyes were the talk of the nation, yet stumbled to Maize & Blue.
During the game when it was still close the announcers said the team played tense and not free wheeling- that radiated from Day who has turned the season to night. I wanted to take that play chart he kept looking at and shove it in his farging ear. I didn't see any knowledgeable let alone Genuis adjustments that warrents him making anywhere close to half of what he is hauling in
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Meanwhile- Day turtles up and wants to prove how tough they are, and run. He never attacked with his prized assassin of a QB/WRs. He made OSU easy to defend.
Pretty much what my circle was discussing and spot on.This guy has nothing now,no aura,no 5*s lining up sans maybe some wideouts not sure what his buyout is but Gene Smith should have to pay it if it is astranomical or sent packing
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I hear. I just think it’d be a mistake to get rid of him even if he loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor
Oh no you don't he didn't just lose he lost it.Go Big or go home,if he submits to a pay cut then fine.But MR born on 3rd base needs to grow a pair and quick.And you are right his Bro getting him some help from The League didn't hurt
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Pretty much what my circle was discussing and spot on.This guy has nothing now,no aura,no 5*s lining up sans maybe some wideouts not sure what his buyout is but Gene Smith should have to pay it if it is astranomical or sent packing
pretty sure he's got the #1 QB who is also the #1 player in '24 lining up to play for him. Fire Day, you probably lose that QB. I would give him til '24. That's his prove it year.
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The penalties were bad. The unsportsmanlike were blatant and so were the pass interference calls. Bad to the point there wasn’t even an argument to be made for a borderline call. Ohio State getting the ball at the 50, then suddenly it’s 1st and 35 was crazy. What might have been crazier was punting when it was 4th and 6 and Stroud clearly feeling it. That possession I believe was the nail, especially mentally.
Agree totally. The officiating was solid.
OSU made so many stupid and self inflicted penalties. The PIs were not borderline. All good calls. they happen when the DBs are lost and out of position.
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Agree totally. The officiating was solid.
OSU made so many stupid and self inflicted penalties. The PIs were not borderline. All good calls. they happen when the DBs are lost and out of position.
one thing that jumped out to me was the OSU DBs almost never played the ball. that's got to be a coaching thing as well.
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https://twitter.com/BSSportsbook/status/1596587227353448448?s=20&t=a-IpGt5WFMkFoJ1zgrUmqQ
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Oh no you don't he didn't just lose he lost it.Go Big or go home,if he submits to a pay cut then fine.But MR born on 3rd base needs to grow a pair and quick.And you are right his Bro getting him some help from The League didn't hurt
I am disappointed with Day too. But let’s be realistic. He is a young coach, and he is still young. Michigan gave Harbaugh 6 seasons to get his first win in the rivalry.
He is a smart guy. He will get better.
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He's had 4 yrs,he's at 9.5 per.Take a pay cut Like Jeem did then we'll see if he's serious or hungry.But yesterday just boggles the mind as far as pounding a square peg into a round hole.If I put a headset on you I know you'd at least strike deep and risk a pick or get a call. We've been hoodwinked,handing him that salary that exceeds that of Urbs is beyond buffoonery IMHO
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send him a message
get his attention
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still kinda blows my mind that Michigan beat Ohio State by 3+ TD's IN Columbus down their best player on offense in Blake Corum and their best player on defense in Mike Morris. unreal.
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28-3 in the 2nd half is surprising to me
and cause for concern for Day
what the hell happened in the locker room??
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Have to see who declares early and what happens with the portal, but Michigan should be right back in the thick of things next year for the B1G championship and a playoff berth. They should return almost everybody on offense and defense. Including this guy, Eyabi Okie- who I think will be their breakout star on defense in 2023.
This is vs Paris Johnson Jr by the way- a guy who is a surefire 1st rd pick in 2023- some mocks even have him as high as top 10- and a guy who hadn't given up a sack in 3 years. Refs blew it dead and called Stroud down when it should've been a sack forced fumble, recovered for td, but whatever.
https://twitter.com/GoBluePoole/status/1596939891509964800?s=20&t=c0DuTz0YQX2CrPLTNvFVsA
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most watched regular season college football game ever aired on Fox. Peak of 19.6 million viewers. Not bad for a noon game. Put this on prime time, it probably gets peak of millions more.
https://twitter.com/FOXSportsPR/status/1596995854778654721?s=20&t=7g2q5_XqDn6fLQ9XnHJS4w
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Have to see who declares early and what happens with the portal, but Michigan should be right back in the thick of things next year for the B1G championship and a playoff berth. They should return almost everybody on offense and defense. Including this guy, Eyabi Okie- who I think will be their breakout star on defense in 2023.
This is vs Paris Johnson Jr by the way- a guy who is a surefire 1st rd pick in 2023- some mocks even have him as high as top 10- and a guy who hadn't given up a sack in 3 years. Refs blew it dead and called Stroud down when it should've been a sack forced fumble, recovered for td, but whatever.
https://twitter.com/GoBluePoole/status/1596939891509964800?s=20&t=c0DuTz0YQX2CrPLTNvFVsA
Yes. Kind of mind blowing. That’s the only pressure on Stroud all day. And game was in garbage time. The offensive line was near perfect all day.
if you would have said at halftime Um had 10 yards rushing and OSU had 124 plus 240 passing, no turnovers and no sacks against them, you would never think UM had 17 points and was only down 3.
And then if you watched the game and someone told you OSU stuck with their cover zero and single high looks ( which can’t be disguised well by the way with motion on offense), you would have said no way - that’s nuts.
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That’s why you throw the analysis out for this game. So many anomalies.
If I told you before the game JJ would only complete 50% passing and only 12 completions- would you like that?
Or, if I told you that Stroud would complete 67% of his passes, 350 yards, no picks, no sacks, with 5 minutes left in the game - would you think OSU was already DOA?
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https://theathletic.com/3938850/2022/11/26/ohio-state-ryan-day-michigan/
Well summarized.
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https://theathletic.com/3938850/2022/11/26/ohio-state-ryan-day-michigan/
Well summarized.
I actually hated that article. Day has been pretty conservative in those situations all season. While I am of the opinion that he should be more aggressive, claiming the team thought he was scare feels more like vibe speak than anything based in reality. He clearly thought his defense could buckle things down. A bad assumption, but not one that signaled fear or whatever. Based on this line of thinking Tressel teams must have gone 6-6 every year.
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That’s why you throw the analysis out for this game. So many anomalies.
If I told you before the game JJ would only complete 50% passing and only 12 completions- would you like that?
Or, if I told you that Stroud would complete 67% of his passes, 350 yards, no picks, no sacks, with 5 minutes left in the game - would you think OSU was already DOA?
Ha. That’s just crazy.
I honestly feel really bad for Stroud. He has played great in The Game and is 0-2.
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I actually hated that article. Day has been pretty conservative in those situations all season. While I am of the opinion that he should be more aggressive, claiming the team thought he was scare feels more like vibe speak than anything based in reality. He clearly thought his defense could buckle things down. A bad assumption, but not one that signaled fear or whatever. Based on this line of thinking Tressel teams must have gone 6-6 every year.
Not really. Tressel ‘s whole philosophy was conservative. Run, punt, play D.
Days philosophy has been based on explosive plays, risk taking in the passing game, throwing downfield.
I am not a coach 2nd guesser- but with what was at stake, where they were on the field, and where the game was/ it was hard to believe he made that choice. And then they punted it into the end zone for a net gain of 13 yards. And of course the air went out of his team and the stadium, and UM went on it’s only sustained drive.
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https://twitter.com/DrewCHallett/status/1596713517314641921?t=9KZEojLuUJRWPECPNeJ5uA&s=19
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Not really. Tressel ‘s whole philosophy was conservative. Run, punt, play D.
Days philosophy has been based on explosive plays, risk taking in the passing game, throwing downfield.
I am not a coach 2nd guesser- but with what was at stake, where they were on the field, and where the game was/ it was hard to believe he made that choice. And then they punted it into the end zone for a net gain of 13 yards. And of course the air went out of his team and the stadium, and UM went on it’s only sustained drive.
Yeah, but Day consistently punts in those situations. It's nothing new. He's putting his own personal vibe check on the game, which is something I always hate from sportswriter. While I disagree with punting in plus territory generally, it wasn't some sort of pivotal moment where the team stopped playing.
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BTW, what is becoming apparent is much more interesting story. OSU had a fake punt called on that fourth down, but the long snapper messed up and didn't snap it to the up man. The long snapper is a backup because OSU's long time long snapper was injured earlier in the season. Another long snapper, Roen McCullough, medically retired from football before last season, though it was widely rumored that he was dismissed form the team for providing practice tips to two shitbag OSU internet media types. In any event, that's a much more interesting story than Ryan Day showed fear by punting.
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Yes. I saw that story. And watched and rewatched the film.
Can’t really tell- there are some signs that Mitch Rossi was expecting the snap, and the punter seemed surprised to get the ball. So- maybe it was a fake punt???
Either way- it is 4th and 5 ( after being 1st and 35 due to absolutely bone headed personal foul by Gee Scott), you are at uM’s 38 yard line, you are down 24-20, midway through 3rd Q, you have arguably the best QB in CFB as well as WR, Michigan would be on especially high alert for a fake, and if you do punt it- high risk of a touchback so net gain of 13 yards.
The friends of mine who were there all said- with Stroud out there begging Day to go for it- they felt the air leave the stadium, and could visibly see the despair in the body language on the OSU bench. Remember- at that point in the game Stroud had completed 70% of his throws, no interceptions and no sacks.
There was an easy risk/return decision there- and Day turtled. And UM saw it- and players said as much afterward. Michigan only had one long, sustained TD drive in the game- and it happened right after that decision.
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https://twitter.com/TCUFootball/status/1597072012870287360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1597072012870287360%7Ctwgr%5E655480346410ed76682363afed5701d0df3de52c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.on3.com%2Fnews%2Fmichigan-trolls-ohio-state-following-rivalry-win-gets-called-out-by-tcu-for-it%2F
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Ok, don't judge me too harshly for this, but from an outsider's point of view.....
The OSU/Mich game hasn't been fun to watch for like, a long time. It so often carries big implications with it that I want to enjoy it. I remember when I used to. I should.
Just that Michigan has been hard to watch for a while now. Winning a bunch of games is amazing for Michigan fans, no doubt, just as an outsider their brand of football isn't too exciting. And more often than not it failed against the high-octane Buckeyes.
But THIS game was fun as hell. I don't care who the winner is going forward, just make it like this every year please.
Ohio State: I'll sling it down the field and score quick on your arse.
Michigan: Yeah, well, me too.
Happy Gilmore: Uh-oh.....Michigan learned the explosive play.
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Yes. I saw that story. And watched and rewatched the film.
Can’t really tell- there are some signs that Mitch Rossi was expecting the snap, and the punter seemed surprised to get the ball. So- maybe it was a fake punt???
Either way- it is 4th and 5 ( after being 1st and 35 due to absolutely bone headed personal foul by Gee Scott), you are at uM’s 38 yard line, you are down 24-20, midway through 3rd Q, you have arguably the best QB in CFB as well as WR, Michigan would be on especially high alert for a fake, and if you do punt it- high risk of a touchback so net gain of 13 yards.
The friends of mine who were there all said- with Stroud out there begging Day to go for it- they felt the air leave the stadium, and could visibly see the despair in the body language on the OSU bench. Remember- at that point in the game Stroud had completed 70% of his throws, no interceptions and no sacks.
There was an easy risk/return decision there- and Day turtled. And UM saw it- and players said as much afterward. Michigan only had one long, sustained TD drive in the game- and it happened right after that decision.
Possibly because the snapper snapped to the wrong guy
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Possibly because the snapper snapped to the wrong guy
Yes, maybe. But if it was really supposed to go to Rossi as some are claiming, look where he is lined up. Way off to the side. Not just a little. Way off. It would be extremely challenging to snap it to him.
I am guessing Some will ask Ryan Day at his next press conference but who knows if he tells the truth about it and we may never know.
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Yes. I saw that story. And watched and rewatched the film.
Can’t really tell- there are some signs that Mitch Rossi was expecting the snap, and the punter seemed surprised to get the ball. So- maybe it was a fake punt???
Either way- it is 4th and 5 ( after being 1st and 35 due to absolutely bone headed personal foul by Gee Scott), you are at uM’s 38 yard line, you are down 24-20, midway through 3rd Q, you have arguably the best QB in CFB as well as WR, Michigan would be on especially high alert for a fake, and if you do punt it- high risk of a touchback so net gain of 13 yards.
THIS!
I read an article a long time ago about some HS or low-level college coach who basically never punts and I've seen some data to suggest that teams statistically should go for it a LOT more than they do. That situation is the example that I always go with. The difference between a punt/touchback and an incomplete pass is fairly negligible. At least if you go for it you have a chance.
I also agree with you @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) , that the fake punt call doesn't really make sense anyway. It is too obvious. Michigan is probably going to be in their "punt safe" formation watching for a fake so you are better off with your best passer and best WR's on the field instead of your punter throwing to whatever gunner you have on that side of the field.
A fake punt is a much higher risk call but has much greater chance of success if you call it on your own 38. Then the opposition probably isn't in "punt safe" and they will actually be surprised and there is a non-trivial chance that your punter can either just run the five yards untouched or throw to a WIDE open gunner for an easy conversion.
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My favorite is watching Mitch Rossie spin around like WTF is happening. The sadness when you see how much space there is.
https://twitter.com/RossRFulton/status/1597227040595644416?s=20&t=Z9OGIRBkSfM5UIIT9PW_kw
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My favorite is watching Mitch Rossie spin around like WTF is happening. The sadness when you see how much space there is.
https://twitter.com/RossRFulton/status/1597227040595644416?s=20&t=Z9OGIRBkSfM5UIIT9PW_kw
Interesting. I noticed live that the punter looked like he barely caught the snap. Rewatching this I'm nearly certain that it was a called fake for a number of reasons:
- At the snap the punter doesn't wait for the ball, he starts to his right then has to come back to his left to catch the ball (thankfully he did).
- Rossie clearly doesn't know what is going on.
- There is GREAT blocking for Rossie on the left side of the line. He could have driven a truck through that hole.
- One of the blockers on that left side, after setting his block, releases and heads downfield then looks back for the ball, I think he was supposed to be the outlet receiver for Rossie to throw to if he couldn't get the yardage running.
- The punt is very nearly blocked because the guys on the far right of the Buckeye line didn't appear to even try to block the defenders. Watching live I just thought they didn't do a good job of holding their blocks but watching the replay with the understanding that maybe it was supposed to be a fake, those guys don't appear to even try to block for the punter. Instead, they set up to prevent the Michigan defenders from getting to the left side where Rossie is supposed to be running with the ball.
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this is an NFL DB caliber play right here...and Mikey S was playing WR last year. Kinda blows my mind. Coaches should try position switches more maybe?
https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1596603602520477706?s=20&t=BTQGyVjNpQoxydWJpC2qvw
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Sure looks like a VERY well designed fake. Poorly executed when the snapper doesn’t know.
That’s Egbuka on left end- he clearly fakes blocking then turns into a short route as a potential outlet pass. The play looks like it could have easily gone for big yards just running.
But- horrible execution, again. 😞
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this is an NFL DB caliber play right here...and Mikey S was playing WR last year. Kinda blows my mind. Coaches should try position switches more maybe?
https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1596603602520477706?s=20&t=BTQGyVjNpQoxydWJpC2qvw
That was a great defensive play, on a perfectly thrown pass! And at a Crucial time in the game. He makes that catch, OSU is a 2 point conversion away from tying the game, getting momentum back, and getting the crowd going wild. My heart sunk when Sainrestil did that- but you have to tip your hat.
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https://twitter.com/WolverineChron/status/1597080873996017666?s=20&t=msmJ34F5IxREzrNhkfoP5w
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so, the boilers want to build a 20 point lead ?
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/the-game-2022/2022/11/135500/jim-harbaugh-says-michigan-got-extremely-lucky-on-apparent-botched-fake-punt-by-ohio-state
Harbaugh says Michigan got lucky on that fake punt. “They had us cold”.
Not sure if that makes me feel better or worse. Better- Day had some balls. Worse- snapper did not know the play call.
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I'd feel better
the player can learn or move on
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I'd feel better
the player can learn or move on
Your probably right.
based on the film, that play goes for a long gain, or maybe a TD. Nobody there on defense but the returner, and the intended RB, Rossi, had a blocker (Egbuka)
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I admire Day for not throwing anyone under the bus and saying he just felt like punting when they kept asking about it.
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I admire Day for not throwing anyone under the bus and saying he just felt like punting when they kept asking about it.
Totally agree. It’s him that is taking major criticism.
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I’ve read some OSU forums and Facebook groups today. A few times I saw people calling Stroud “soft” for not running more. I think some people have lost their mind. Stroud is one of the best in the game in my opinion.
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I admire Day for not throwing anyone under the bus and saying he just felt like punting when they kept asking about it.
his players appreciate that and love him for that- guarantee that much. how many a-hole coaches throw players under the bus all the time? Brian Kelly and Mike Leach come to mind immediately...
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Keep piling it on Mdot I'm on to you.Brady Hoke had close games with tOSU except 2014 and that loss was only by 14. Day's transgressions have been far worse.Hoke got fired ofter 4 yrs,Day is finishing his 4 th,hmmm.
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Keep piling it on Mdot I'm on to you.Brady Hoke had close games with tOSU except 2014 and that loss was only by 14. Day's transgressions have been far worse.Hoke got fired ofter 4 yrs,Day is finishing his 4 th,hmmm.
I get it Nubbz. He has lost 2 straight to the arch rival. And, you can make a good argument that this last one was purely a choke job coaching. Many national writers have. It is fair criticism.
How many years did it take Harbaugh to figure out how to beat his rival? 7! What is his win % against them? 28%. What is Day’s? 33%
Your talking about a coach who is 45-5, 2 Big Ten Tiles in 4 years, and 2 CFP appearances.
Harbaugh did great- his team was confident but loose. Because he was playing with house money. He did a great job of conveying that to his players, and a great job game planning.
Day and his players came in confident, but tense as hell. The pressure, much of it self imposed, was on him- and unfortunately he did a great job of conveying that to his players.
Day actually did a good job of game planning as did Knowles-but unfortunately panicked when adversity hit and failed to make adjustments.
It happens. They will learn from it.
Tip your hat to the guy who just kicked your butt. Then do the things you need to do to fix the screw ups and try to improve.
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I'm coming back to my theme that the problem Saturday wasn't the defense, it was the offense. Yes, the defense wasn't perfect but they played well enough to win, the offense didn't.
Things that happen at the end of games can skew the stats and give a misleading picture. Michigan's rushing on Saturday is a great example of this. For the game Michigan had 35 carries for 252 yards and 3 TD's on an average of 7.2 per carry. It sounds like they ran it down tOSU's throat all game long. The thing is that Michigan's last two TD's were runs of 75 and 85 yards. Take those away and Michigan's rushing totals were 33 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD on an average of 2.8 per carry.
Now I know that you can't just subtract a couple plays and say "see, great!". However, I don't blame the defense for what happened on those two plays. The defense took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the situation in the game.
The situation:
Ohio State kicked a FG to make it a one-score game at 31-23. That IS a one score game but it requires a LOT. Ohio State has to stop Michigan, score a TD, make the two point conversion, and win in OT. Michigan got the ball on the 25 from a touchback after the FG. The ball was snapped with 7:11 remaining. In theory tOSU could give up a first down or two and still get the ball back with enough time to score but that puts EVERYTHING on the 2 point conversion. What Ohio State really needs here is a three-and-out. Even at that, Michigan will likely burn 1-1/2 to 2 minutes just running three times so IF Ohio State forces a three-and-out they likely get the ball back with a little over five minutes to play. By forcing a three-and-out Ohio State would potentially have an insurance policy in case they fail to convert the 2 point conversion.
Thus, I simply don't blame Knowles / the defense for putting basically everybody on the line in this situation. They feel like they almost HAVE to get a three-and-out so there really isn't any point in having a layered defense that could have tackled Edwards 15-20 yards down the field because once he gets the first down the game is almost certainly lost anyway so lets fight to stop him cold.
The second situation:
This one isn't even debatable. Michigan was up by two scores (15 points, 38-23) and got the ball from an INT at their own 8. The first down snap was with 4:11 to go and they gained six yards. At this point the game is almost certainly lost no matter what but the only chance Ohio State has is to force a three-and-out and get the ball back with MAYBE 2 minutes left needing two TD's, one XP, and a 2pt conversion. At that point you HAVE to stack the line and they did:
- 1st and 10 at the 8 with 4:11 to go, Edwards for 6
- 2nd and 4 at the 14 with 3:31 to go, Edwards for 1
- 3rd and 3 at the 15 with 3:19 to go (after a tOSU timeout), Edwards for an 85 yard TD.
The TD there matters for style points but as far as the outcome of the game is concerned Ohio State's last remotely plausible chance was gone as soon as Edwards crossed the 18 and had the first down. At that point there was <3 minutes to go, Michigan led by two scores, and tOSU had already used at least one timeout. Whether Edwards gets tackled at the Michigan 20 for a five yard gain or runs 80 more yards for a TD is completely irrelevant. Ohio State's last chance evaporated when he crossed the 18. Everything after that is academic.
Per the above, I really don't blame the tOSU defense for the above two plays because they simply took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the game situation.
Here is why I blame the offense:
In the first half the buckeyes had the following drives:
- 12 plays, 81 yards, TD
- 10 plays, 58 yards, FG (got to 1st and 10 at the M 15, gained one yard on three plays and kicked the FG)
- 8 plays, 36 yards, downs (got to 4th and 2 at the M 34 and failed to pick it up)
- 4 plays, 21 yards, punt
- 6 plays, 41 yards, FG (got to 2nd and 6 at the 24 then went backwards 5 yards and kicked the FG)
- 4 plays, 79 yards, TD
- 3 plays, 6 yards, punt
In that first half the Buckeye defense did what was asked of them. They stopped Michigan from running the ball. I think Michigan had 10 yards on 11 carries in the first half. They did give up two long passing TD's because they were crowding the line so if a guy got behind the defense or broke a tackle it was a TD but that is the trade-off for completely stopping Michigan's running game.
Not counting the two yard loss to kneel down at the end of the first half, tOSU outgained M 322-204 in the first half. The problem is efficiency. Michigan scored 17 points on 204 yards (1 point per 12 yards). Ohio State scored 20 points on 322 yards (1 point per 16.1 yards). The Ohio State offense was mostly productive in the first half but they just didn't get enough points for their efforts. If they'd have operated at the efficiency of the Michigan offense (1 points per 12 yards) they'd have had roughly 27 points. Turning the two FG's into TD's would have given the Buckeyes a two-score lead at 28-17.
As much criticism as there has been of Jim Knowles apparent Don Brown impersonation, I have to assume that the Buckeyes would have backed into a more normal defense if they had managed to achieve a lead large enough that they would have been in a position to trade yards for time. If Ohio State scores another seven or eight points in the first half they are just about there entering the third quarter.
Then there is the Buckeyes offense in the second half. They scored three freaking points. Yes, the defense gave up 28 but only 14 of those were while the game was still reasonably contested. What happened after that is academic.
I really don't blame Stroud / the offense for the picks on the last two possessions. Those had more to do with the desperate game situation than anything else. It makes sense to play fast-and-loose when you are in a desperate situation because you really don't have anything to lose. The problem came before that. On the second half drives the Buckeyes had:
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
- 7 plays, 52 yards, FG
- 10 plays, 59 yards, INT
- 4 plays, 12 yards, INT
By the time the offense finally got in gear in the second half the damage had already been done. The 52 yard FG drive cut the lead to 8 but it was still a bad situation. On Michigan's first four drives of the second half they did have two TD's but the other two were a three-and-out and a missed FG. If Ohio State's offense had done AMYTHING with their first three drives (even just a FG) it would have been a game.
Stroud threw for 349 yards and Ohio State ran for almost 150 at 4.9 per carry. How the F do you manage to gain almost 500 yards of offense without scoring 24 points? For the game Michigan ended up with 45 points on 530 yards while Ohio State ended up with 23 points on 492 yards. Michigan scored one point every 11.8 yards, Ohio State scored one point every 21.4 yards.
My conclusion is that while you can maybe blame the loss on the defense, the blowout is on the offense. If the offense had simply scored an average amount of points per yard it would have been a tight game to the end. Then it is anybodys game to win and I'll take those odds with Stroud as my QB and Marvin Harrison as my #1 WR.
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There is one place where I really do think the tOSU defense majorly screwed up.
I've seen a lot of M guys post "M won without their best player on offense" and while this is true, Ohio State's failure to capitalize on Corum's absence effectively made Corum's absence irrelevant.
Once it was apparent that Corum wasn't a go, the Buckeyes should have dropped their 9-in-the-box defense and forced Michigan to prove they could run without him. Since Ohio State didn't, Corum's absence was largely irrelevant.
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I'm coming back to my theme that the problem Saturday wasn't the defense, it was the offense. Yes, the defense wasn't perfect but they played well enough to win, the offense didn't.
Things that happen at the end of games can skew the stats and give a misleading picture. Michigan's rushing on Saturday is a great example of this. For the game Michigan had 35 carries for 252 yards and 3 TD's on an average of 7.2 per carry. It sounds like they ran it down tOSU's throat all game long. The thing is that Michigan's last two TD's were runs of 75 and 85 yards. Take those away and Michigan's rushing totals were 33 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD on an average of 2.8 per carry.
Now I know that you can't just subtract a couple plays and say "see, great!". However, I don't blame the defense for what happened on those two plays. The defense took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the situation in the game.
The situation:
Ohio State kicked a FG to make it a one-score game at 31-23. That IS a one score game but it requires a LOT. Ohio State has to stop Michigan, score a TD, make the two point conversion, and win in OT. Michigan got the ball on the 25 from a touchback after the FG. The ball was snapped with 7:11 remaining. In theory tOSU could give up a first down or two and still get the ball back with enough time to score but that puts EVERYTHING on the 2 point conversion. What Ohio State really needs here is a three-and-out. Even at that, Michigan will likely burn 1-1/2 to 2 minutes just running three times so IF Ohio State forces a three-and-out they likely get the ball back with a little over five minutes to play. By forcing a three-and-out Ohio State would potentially have an insurance policy in case they fail to convert the 2 point conversion.
Thus, I simply don't blame Knowles / the defense for putting basically everybody on the line in this situation. They feel like they almost HAVE to get a three-and-out so there really isn't any point in having a layered defense that could have tackled Edwards 15-20 yards down the field because once he gets the first down the game is almost certainly lost anyway so lets fight to stop him cold.
The second situation:
This one isn't even debatable. Michigan was up by two scores (15 points, 38-23) and got the ball from an INT at their own 8. The first down snap was with 4:11 to go and they gained six yards. At this point the game is almost certainly lost no matter what but the only chance Ohio State has is to force a three-and-out and get the ball back with MAYBE 2 minutes left needing two TD's, one XP, and a 2pt conversion. At that point you HAVE to stack the line and they did:
- 1st and 10 at the 8 with 4:11 to go, Edwards for 6
- 2nd and 4 at the 14 with 3:31 to go, Edwards for 1
- 3rd and 3 at the 15 with 3:19 to go (after a tOSU timeout), Edwards for an 85 yard TD.
The TD there matters for style points but as far as the outcome of the game is concerned Ohio State's last remotely plausible chance was gone as soon as Edwards crossed the 18 and had the first down. At that point there was <3 minutes to go, Michigan led by two scores, and tOSU had already used at least one timeout. Whether Edwards gets tackled at the Michigan 20 for a five yard gain or runs 80 more yards for a TD is completely irrelevant. Ohio State's last chance evaporated when he crossed the 18. Everything after that is academic.
Per the above, I really don't blame the tOSU defense for the above two plays because they simply took a calculated risk that they HAD to take based on the game situation.
Here is why I blame the offense:
In the first half the buckeyes had the following drives:
- 12 plays, 81 yards, TD
- 10 plays, 58 yards, FG (got to 1st and 10 at the M 15, gained one yard on three plays and kicked the FG)
- 8 plays, 36 yards, downs (got to 4th and 2 at the M 34 and failed to pick it up)
- 4 plays, 21 yards, punt
- 6 plays, 41 yards, FG (got to 2nd and 6 at the 24 then went backwards 5 yards and kicked the FG)
- 4 plays, 79 yards, TD
- 3 plays, 6 yards, punt
In that first half the Buckeye defense did what was asked of them. They stopped Michigan from running the ball. I think Michigan had 10 yards on 11 carries in the first half. They did give up two long passing TD's because they were crowding the line so if a guy got behind the defense or broke a tackle it was a TD but that is the trade-off for completely stopping Michigan's running game.
Not counting the two yard loss to kneel down at the end of the first half, tOSU outgained M 322-204 in the first half. The problem is efficiency. Michigan scored 17 points on 204 yards (1 point per 12 yards). Ohio State scored 20 points on 322 yards (1 point per 16.1 yards). The Ohio State offense was mostly productive in the first half but they just didn't get enough points for their efforts. If they'd have operated at the efficiency of the Michigan offense (1 points per 12 yards) they'd have had roughly 27 points. Turning the two FG's into TD's would have given the Buckeyes a two-score lead at 28-17.
As much criticism as there has been of Jim Knowles apparent Don Brown impersonation, I have to assume that the Buckeyes would have backed into a more normal defense if they had managed to achieve a lead large enough that they would have been in a position to trade yards for time. If Ohio State scores another seven or eight points in the first half they are just about there entering the third quarter.
Then there is the Buckeyes offense in the second half. They scored three freaking points. Yes, the defense gave up 28 but only 14 of those were while the game was still reasonably contested. What happened after that is academic.
I really don't blame Stroud / the offense for the picks on the last two possessions. Those had more to do with the desperate game situation than anything else. It makes sense to play fast-and-loose when you are in a desperate situation because you really don't have anything to lose. The problem came before that. On the second half drives the Buckeyes had:
- 5 plays, 17 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
- 7 plays, 52 yards, FG
- 10 plays, 59 yards, INT
- 4 plays, 12 yards, INT
By the time the offense finally got in gear in the second half the damage had already been done. The 52 yard FG drive cut the lead to 8 but it was still a bad situation. On Michigan's first four drives of the second half they did have two TD's but the other two were a three-and-out and a missed FG. If Ohio State's offense had done AMYTHING with their first three drives (even just a FG) it would have been a game.
Stroud threw for 349 yards and Ohio State ran for almost 150 at 4.9 per carry. How the F do you manage to gain almost 500 yards of offense without scoring 24 points? For the game Michigan ended up with 45 points on 530 yards while Ohio State ended up with 23 points on 492 yards. Michigan scored one point every 11.8 yards, Ohio State scored one point every 21.4 yards.
My conclusion is that while you can maybe blame the loss on the defense, the blowout is on the offense. If the offense had simply scored an average amount of points per yard it would have been a tight game to the end. Then it is anybodys game to win and I'll take those odds with Stroud as my QB and Marvin Harrison as my #1 WR.
You have to give credit to Michigan’s defense here. And, this is where Day did choke a bit.
For most of the day, UM was set up to prevent big plays. They had Harrison bracketed nearly every play. But OSU has seen that multiple times this season. Why was it a surprise? Why did Day- a very talented offensive mind- have better plan to attack it?
And- this where Harbaugh and hi staff deserve credit, and Day and his deserve criticism. As the game moved along and UM stayed close and even took the lead, their players played with growing confidence. OSU- the opposite. Dropped passes, PI calls, easy assignments missed, personal fouls etc. that might be the most self inflicted errors we have seen from them all year. And in their most important game.
Much like the. Cooper years- they were wound too tight. They shriveled. That is coaching and culture.
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There is one place where I really do think the tOSU defense majorly screwed up.
I've seen a lot of M guys post "M won without their best player on offense" and while this is true, Ohio State's failure to capitalize on Corum's absence effectively made Corum's absence irrelevant.
Once it was apparent that Corum wasn't a go, the Buckeyes should have dropped their 9-in-the-box defense and forced Michigan to prove they could run without him. Since Ohio State didn't, Corum's absence was largely irrelevant.
I will go further. It actually worked to UMs advantage mentally.
Just like you could see clearly on the television set, when Corum left and Michigan clearly could not run the ball, they looked openly dejected on their sideline wow the Ohio State fans and players were openly excited about that.
When JJ hit that simple out pass under pressure and Cam Brown missed that much-needed tackle, that Michigan touchdown totally devastated the Ohio State bench and totally lifted the Michigan team. That’s really where the mental collapse started. You can see it clearly with your own eyes and the announcers even talked about it.
nearly all of my friends are Michigan people and we’re texting me and we’re so dejected until that play.
and that place is a perfect example of what I’m talking about. Cam Brown has been taught to play one of three ways in man coverage. First bump and run which has its risks but does force the quarterback to be extremely accurate or extremely good at back shoulder throws.
Two, soft coverage so on third and nine or whatever it was you back up to the line to gain and keep your eyes on the receiver especially since you know we sent a major blitz in there the ball is going to come out fast. Third is the “bail“ technique. This is the only one that would be unacceptable in that situation and I can assure you was not taught by the coaching staff. That’s where you bail and just get deep so the receiver can’t beat you deep, and that’s exactly what Cam Brown did and why there was plenty of time for Cornelius Johnson to not only catch the ball but make an easy escape move in the open field and get the touchdown. Brown simply panicked- didn’t trust his training.
I could give you so many more examples like that that I saw even more as the game went on. The touchdown to their tight end is one example where the player did not do what he’s done all year and did not trust his training. He completely panicked. The deep middle shot to Cornelius Johnson, I can assure you Cam Martinez is way better than that and simply panicked. The ball Stroud through into the end zone towards Egbuka. We have seen that numerous times this season and Egbuka is smart enough to sit down in the gap where the ball was and had to be thrown. But for whatever reason he panicked and extended his route to a place where he wasn’t open and there was no chance to catch that ball. The play that Sainrestril made on Stover. Great play no doubt. But Stover juggled that perfect throw, allowing time for that play to be made. He did not normally juggle those kind of catches all season but for whatever reason he was very panicked.
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I get it Nubbz. He has lost 2 straight to the arch rival. And, you can make a good argument that this last one was purely a choke job coaching. Many national writers have. It is fair criticism.
How many years did it take Harbaugh to figure out how to beat his rival? 7! What is his win % against them? 28%. What is Day’s? 33%
Your talking about a coach who is 45-5, 2 Big Ten Tiles in 4 years, and 2 CFP appearances.
Harbaugh did great- his team was confident but loose. Because he was playing with house money. He did a great job of conveying that to his players, and a great job game planning.
Day and his players came in confident, but tense as hell. The pressure, much of it self imposed, was on him- and unfortunately he did a great job of conveying that to his players.
Day actually did a good job of game planning as did Knowles-but unfortunately panicked when adversity hit and failed to make adjustments.
It happens. They will learn from it.
Tip your hat to the guy who just kicked your butt. Then do the things you need to do to fix the screw ups and try to improve.
Apples/Oranges,I want the very same thing as you and the rest of the fans.And Athletic Dept is paying thru the nose to get it,there is no apprenticeship at 9.5 per. Last year was a shoulder shrug,this past Saturday a WTF & a GTFO.DAY had no HC experience coming in,Harbaugh had plenty.What unfolded saturday is inexcusable,had one year,the weather,the crowd & O-Line delivered in spades and as you pointed he turtled,no adjustments,insights,improvising. If he took a pay cut then fine it might keep him hungry.And I tell Gene Smith act like your job depends on it as it just might. You don't turn a blind eye or the other cheek to to these faux pas
He is winning 90% of his games, but most adequate coaches can win at that rate with our talent and schedule. We have played 7 games where he has coached against top 10 competition:
2019 Clemson: Loss
2020 Clemson: Win!
2020 Bama: Loss
2021 Oregon: Loss
2021 TTUN: Loss
2021 Utah: Win
2022 TTUN: Loss
JMO but plenty other share it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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I’ve read some OSU forums and Facebook groups today. A few times I saw people calling Stroud “soft” for not running more. I think some people have lost their mind. Stroud is one of the best in the game in my opinion.
kid is an ultra talented QB. doesn't have the strongest arm ever but his arm strength is definitely very good. what separates him is his accuracy and ball placement- he's elite there. he's a better athlete than people give him credit for as well- he can run a little bit- he's not a statue- he just doesn't run that often.
unfortunately every QB in this rivalry can be judged unfairly- they are judged off one game. did you beat Ohio State if you're from Michigan, and did you beat Michigan if you're from Ohio State? Kid put up record setting numbers in his two years as a starter and went something like 23-3 as a starter- but because he's lost to Michigan twice he's going to have to deal with idiots bashing him saying he's not good. you'll see just how good he is when he's a top 5 NFL Draft pick. newsflash: he's pretty f'n good.
Teams win/lose. OSU didn't break any big runs on offense to help the passing game out. And the defense gave up huge play after huge play. That's not CJ Stroud's fault.
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I definitely don't view Stroud as the reason tOSU lost that game. That dude's a baller.
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And Athletic Dept is paying thru the nose to get it,there is no apprenticeship at 9.5 per.
no need to worry about the $$$
it's out the door
would you rather be paying 5 mill and losing?
still a crazy number
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When JJ hit that simple out pass under pressure and Cam Brown missed that much-needed tackle, that Michigan touchdown totally devastated the Ohio State bench and totally lifted the Michigan team. That’s really where the mental collapse started. You can see it clearly with your own eyes and the announcers even talked about it.
yeah, there was nothing simple about that pass from JJ. He threw it on a 3rd and 9 while he got lit up off his back foot and let it rip from his own 20 yard line and threw a laser on a rope on a dime roughly 26 yards across the field and 20 yards down the field - that takes serious arm strength to be able to make that throw without having your feet set. JJ got a cannon.
OSU DB whiffed on the tackle baaaaad and it's a TD. But that's what happens when you play cover 0 all day long with no safety help. Someone misses a tackle after the catch or gets in the wrong gap on run D- house call.
Knowles never got out of it. Kept playing it like a stubborn bastard. Shades of Don Brown for sure. Looking for a scapegoat, I think it's him. Probably a bad idea to hire a defensive co-ordinator for the Big 12, a conference known for playing absolutely no defense. If I'm Ryan Day I am trying to go all in through back channels to snag Jim Leonhard to be my DC in 2023.
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no need to worry about the $$$
it's out the door
would you rather be paying 5 mill and losing?
still a crazy number
Jeem took a pay cut to 4 mil - and look how that worked out.Woodsheddings don't deserve a shucks oh well we'll get them next year >:(
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Frost took a similar pay cut.
Look how that turn out
now the Huskers are payin an NFL reject 9 mill
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yeah, there was nothing simple about that pass from JJ. He threw it on a 3rd and 9 while he got lit up off his back foot and let it rip from his own 20 yard line and threw a laser on a rope on a dime roughly 26 yards across the field and 20 yards down the field - that takes serious arm strength to be able to make that throw without having your feet set. JJ got a cannon.
OSU DB whiffed on the tackle baaaaad and it's a TD. But that's what happens when you play cover 0 all day long with no safety help. Someone misses a tackle after the catch or gets in the wrong gap on run D- house call.
Knowles never got out of it. Kept playing it like a stubborn bastard. Shades of Don Brown for sure. Looking for a scapegoat, I think it's him. Probably a bad idea to hire a defensive co-ordinator for the Big 12, a conference known for playing absolutely no defense. If I'm Ryan Day I am trying to go all in through back channels to snag Jim Leonhard to be my DC in 2023.
Yes- not taking anything away from the actual pass. It was well done and not easy.
what I am saying is that if Cam Brown plays the technique he was taught and has executed all year ( soft coverage man or bump/press) it’s an easy tackle and at worst- a first down. He played bail- because he was panicked.
Also- other than being aggressive in nature- Knowles defense is nothing like Don Brown’s. They called him Doctor blitz for a reason. Knowles is based on disguise- giving the Qb hesitation in reading it.
In my opinion it is an excellent scheme for the modern offenses of todays college game, because it is very flexible, usually well disguised and can be run, pass or balance focused.
It’s weakness is if you tilt it too much toward run or pass, it can be susceptible to big plays. Also, it is hard to disguise cover zero.
I do agree with you that Knowles should have run it much less once UM established the clear ability to complete the deep shots.
You mentioned the other day the biggest point- that the OSU DBs fail to turn and look for the ball. You were right on with that/ and that was a pattern all season. The difference this weekend was even though they struggle to turn and look for the ball a lot this season they were usually at least in a good position to break up a pass or make a tackle. Against UM, they got pretty panicky and were not even on position.
many examples here but think about this. When Loveland, a TE, got 15 yards behind the guy covering him (Latham Ransome) how did that happen? Ransome had not been beaten deep all season and was playing at an extremely high level leading up to this game. I assure you he’s substantially faster than that TE. If you watch the film it’s easy to see, once again he abandoned his training on the out cut and way overplayed it.
I think they will keep Knowles and the defense will continue to improve. They helped them win a lot of games this season when the offense was bogging down, games they may have lost last year. They just laid an egg Saturday in the d- backfield and literally panicked.
lastly, I give Harbaugh a ton of credit here. He knew they were going to be intensely focused on the run with or without Corum. That’s all anybody at Ohio State has talked about since last year‘s game. He knew if he could hit a couple deep shots that his guys would gain momentum and he suspected, correctly, that the buckeyes would not respond well. It was obvious, yet brilliant.
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Couple things on the defense.
There has been some talk here about Harbaugh/Michigan taking deep shots but they really didn't. I think of a deep shot as a ball that is thrown at least 20-30 yards downfield. Michigan's long pass plays were mostly not that, they were short-medium range passes where the receiver got free and ran for a lot of yards after the catch.
Michigan's first TD (discussed above by @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) , @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) , and others) is a great example. It was third and 9 and the WR caught the ball short of the sticks so the ball was only thrown about 8 yards downfield from the LOS. It went for a 69 yard TD because Cam Brown missed the tackle and the WR got 61 yac.
That brings me to my second point. While I completely understand the focus on stopping Michigan's rushing attack and agree generally with the calculated risk of cover 0, there are down and distance situations where it is clearly NOT warranted and that was one of them.
Michigan got the ball at their 30 down 10-3. They forced a punt for a touch back and got 10 yards added on due to a hold:
- 1st and 10 at the 30, Edwards for 2
- 2nd and 8 at the 32, Edwards for -1
- 3rd and 9 at the 31, 69 yard TD pass
Stacking the line on first and second down accomplished what it was designed to do*. It made Michigan's rushing game completely ineffective. Ok, great, but you don't need to worry about that on 3rd and 9. If Michigan wants to run for five or six yards on 3rd and 9, let them have it.
If Cam Brown makes the tackle where the ball was caught Michigan punts.
If the WR falls forward it is 1st and 10 at the Michigan 40.
If Cam Brown wiffs but there is a safety it is 1st and 10 near midfield.
*This is where the "calculated risk" comes in. On Michigan's two possessions prior to that TD they had back-to-back three-and-outs largely because Ohio State's aggressive scheme had stopped their rushing game cold. On those two possessions they had runs of:
- 2 yards on 1st and 10
- 3 yards on 2nd and 8
- -1 yard on 1st and 10
The 3rd and 5 resulted in an incomplete pass and a punt while the 2nd and 11 resulted in two incomplete passes and a punt.
Adding in the two runs that led to that 3rd and 9, on five consecutive carries Michigan got 5 yards. Ie, the aggressive front was having the intended effect, Michigan couldn't run.
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From Michigan Offensive Coordinator Matt Weiss earlier this week reflecting on Michigan’s success against the Buckeyes defense:
“The way that they played us, no one had really tried to do that. There’s very few teams that really came up and played with no depth in the defense and sold out to stop the run. That’s not something that we had seen. The way that they played created a bit of opportunity.”
“We were ready for everything: for overtime, for a two-point shootout, whatever came up. A lot of the big plays we hit (were) base, Day 1 training camp stuff.”
OUCH! Day 1 training camp stuff!
https://twitter.com/OSU_fb_news/status/1598343388050374663
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how's the new Defensive coordinator working out?
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how's the new Defensive coordinator working out?
Pretty huge improvement from last year in just about every category. Thanks!
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damn it, I'm trollin Nubbz
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From Michigan Offensive Coordinator Matt Weiss earlier this week reflecting on Michigan’s success against the Buckeyes defense:
“The way that they played us, no one had really tried to do that. There’s very few teams that really came up and played with no depth in the defense and sold out to stop the run. That’s not something that we had seen. The way that they played created a bit of opportunity.”
“We were ready for everything: for overtime, for a two-point shootout, whatever came up. A lot of the big plays we hit (were) base, Day 1 training camp stuff.”
OUCH! Day 1 training camp stuff!
https://twitter.com/OSU_fb_news/status/1598343388050374663
Sounds like typical classy coaching staff.
especially a guy who is only 2-5 in the rivalry.
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damn it, I'm trollin Nubbz
Maybe I can troll back in the RG thead on Saturday
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Sounds like typical classy coaching staff.
especially a guy who is only 2-5 in the rivalry.
Well Weiss was only hired 2 years ago but it ain't braggin' if ya can do it .Get pissed at DAY.What happened to MR I should've hung a hundred on them swagger?
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Well Weiss was only hired 2 years ago but it ain't braggin' if ya can do it .Get pissed at DAY.What happened to MR I should've hung a hundred on them swagger?
Well if you’re going to bring up the “hang 100 on them” at least get your story right.
that whole thing started at a live press conference on the phone prior to the 2020 season- before the Covid cancellation. Harbaugh- in public- accused Ohio State of cheating by starting practice one day early. Of course what he didn’t realize was that Ohio State was scheduled to open on a Thursday evening on the road at Illinois. So of course they were allowed to start practicing a day early in conjunction with that.
Then- in private- in front of the team- He made the comment about hanging 100 on them. Unfortunately there was a reporter on the practice field and it leaked out. So in other words Harbaugh made an ass of himself in public. Ryan Day made comments that every coach makes every day including hardball, in the privacy of their own circle.
of course they probably would have hung 100 on Michigan that year if Michigan hadn’t canceled the game due to “Covid“. It was purely coincidence that Ohio State needed that sixth game to qualify for the Big Ten championship in Michigan canceling blocks that, at least originally. And of course Harbaugh took a photograph of his team having a “lively practice” on the Sunday after the Rivalry game was supposed to be played.
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Ya I knew about the lively practice but the point stands, his bravado has left him better to move on from a guy who was never an HC in D-I.He had one year to prepare.I'm no booger fan but he is right about one thing born on 3rd base and is treated to a triple
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Urbs mind is a football super computer. Dude has football IQ through the charts, no wonder why he was such an all-time great coach in college.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbJ7ex0kixk
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How about we all just celebrate Utah winning tonight and sliding the Buckeyes back into the playoff to get a 2nd chance at Michigan?
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I'm rootin for the Utes
I'm certain Brutus will be a HUGE Ute fan
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How about we all just celebrate Utah winning tonight and sliding the Buckeyes back into the playoff to get a 2nd chance at Michigan?
no way they do a 1st rd rematch.
it'll probably be UGA vs Buckeyes and Michigan vs TCU in the semis if Utah wins tonight.
I don't think Utah is going to win tonight however. It's REALLY hard to beat the same team twice in a college football season. Look at all the rematches that happen in CCG's, BCS, or Playoff. I think the team getting 2nd crack is almost undefeated. Which is why I'd rather not have to play Ohio State again. But if it happens, it happens. Bama and Tennessee crapped the bed and blew their shots at sneaking in the backdoor.
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no way they do a 1st rd rematch.
it would make for the best TV ratings
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it would make for the best TV ratings
no it wouldn't. look at the ratings in the rematch games in playoffs/bcs- they were not good. that lsu-bama one was one of the lowest rated ever. people don't want to see the same teams play again.
a UGA-Michigan or USC-Michigan final would get WAY better ratings than a Mich-OSU rematch would.
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you know better than that
"the game II" would draw better ratings than any other possible matchup
just had 14 million on FOX
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Urbs mind is a football super computer. Dude has football IQ through the charts, no wonder why he was such an all-time great coach in college.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbJ7ex0kixk
Very honest assessment by Urbs.
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First of all I think USC is going to murder Utah. They are so much better a team now than they were the last time they played.
Secondly I have to agree with MDOT
People don’t like to see rematches.
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Bama-LSU was a bit low, but not radically so.
BCS and College Football Playoff Ratings History - Sports Media Watch (https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-playoff-ratings-bcs/)
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First of all I think USC is going to murder Utah. They are so much better a team now than they were the last time they played.
very likely outcome I think as well. USC lost by 1 point on a last second 2pt conversion on the road in Utah. have a hard time seeing them losing on a neutral site in a rematch.
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How about we all just celebrate Utah winning tonight and sliding the Buckeyes back into the playoff to get a 2nd chance at Michigan?
It is interesting that if Utah wins tonight, IMHO all four CFP spots will be locked up before Championship Saturday.
Georgia and Michigan are obvious even with CG losses already.
A USC loss effectively eliminates the 11-2 non-Champion Trojans. That pits TCU (even if they lose) and tOSU in.
If TCU loses there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth but who would go ahead of them?
I assume that the committee would set their rankings to avoid a first round rematch so if Georgia and Michigan both win tOSU is #4 regardless. It is a little more complicated if Michigan wins but LSU pulls the upset or if Purdue pulls the upset but in either case I think they'd just find a way to make it work.
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very likely outcome I think as well. USC lost by 1 point on a last second 2pt conversion on the road in Utah. have a hard time seeing them losing on a neutral site in a rematch.
Utah had to beat Oregon twice to win the Pac last year.
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Very honest assessment by Urbs.
yeah he might be a scumbag but damn he knows more about football than just about any coach I have ever heard speak. he's got football genius in him. football IQ is through the roof....which partly explains why he was such an all-time great CFB coach. think the only guy you could put ahead of him is Saban, but he's not far behind.
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I hope TCU loses by a field goal.
Then the rankings will be Georgia number one Michigan number two, USC number three TCU number four
I think Michigan is better than Georgia this year. With McCarthy 2.0, in other words this year‘s version, I think they’re too much for Georgia to handle. I was at that game last year and Michigan needed a mobile quarterback.
The matchup I want to see his Michigan versus USC. USC has The potential to turn a game with Michigan into a track meet. The potential to turn a game with Michigan into a track meet
I think they could make it interesting, but of the four teams remaining I think Michigan is the strongest
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I know it wouldn’t be a first round rematch. I was implying both teams winning the first round game to have a championship game rematch.
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I hope TCU loses by a field goal.
Then the rankings will be Georgia number one Michigan number two, USC number three TCU number four
I think Michigan is better than Georgia this year. With McCarthy 2.0, in other words this year‘s version, I think they’re too much for Georgia to handle. I was at that game last year and Michigan needed a mobile quarterback.
The matchup I want to see his Michigan versus USC. USC has The potential to turn a game with Michigan into a track meet. The potential to turn a game with Michigan into a track meet
I think they could make it interesting, but of the four teams remaining I think Michigan is the strongest
still think Georgia is the strongest. Why? Two reasons. The championship big game experience of that QB and the fact that he just seems to be at his best in the biggest games. Reason two their TE room. They have 3 TEs that could legitamtely start on any team in the P5 right now. I think they have the 3 most talented TEs in the entire country on one team. I don't know how you scheme to stop all 3 of those TEs. If they want to get into 3 TE sets, you're screwed.
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I don't think Utah is going to win tonight however. It's REALLY hard to beat the same team twice in a college football season.
Evenly matched - YES only Cleveland and Detroit teams get a waiver under those conditions because they seem buck the odds everytime
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Evenly matched - YES only Cleveland and Detroit teams get a waiver under those conditions because they seem buck the odds everytime
😂😂😂. So true.
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God don't I know it
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I don't think Utah is going to win tonight however. It's REALLY hard to beat the same team twice in a college football season. Look at all the rematches that happen in CCG's, BCS, or Playoff. I think the team getting 2nd crack is almost undefeated.
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yep. I was way off. Looks like it's a lot easier to win rematches when the other team sucks on defense lol.
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I'm rootin for the Utes
I'm certain Brutus will be a HUGE Ute fan
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjB2bwUXEAUHX3s?format=jpg&name=small)
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It is a myth that it is unusually hard to beat the same team twice in a year. It happens more than half the time in competitive contests.
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By my count, there have been 24 instances of two teams meeting in the conference championship game after meeting during the regular season. Teams that won the regular season game are 15-9 in the rematch.
In the 15 instances that resulted in sweeps, the margin of victory in the rematch was larger than the margin of victory in the first game eight times. Thanks in part to Texas' 70-3 obliteration of Colorado in the 2005 Big 12 Championship Game, the mean margin of victory in the rematch was 20.7, while the mean margin of victory in the first game was 14.6.
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221203/3b8e38ec7d47d58fb6d9aed3654bcdf5.jpg)
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It is a myth that it is unusually hard to beat the same team twice in a year. It happens more than half the time in competitive contests.
maybe tougher for a baseball team in a doubleheader
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By my count, there have been 24 instances of two teams meeting in the conference championship game after meeting during the regular season. Teams that won the regular season game are 15-9 in the rematch.
Not so fast my friend
https://dknation.draftkings.com/platform/amp/2022/1/5/22867649/national-championship-history-rematches-same-season-college-football-playoff-cfp-alabama-vs-georgia
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Sure, in the smaller subset of NC games there often is a reversal, but overall, if you include CG rematches and playoff rematches, the story is most of the time it is 2-0.
These are competitive games, if it was 50-50, you might think it about as hard to win two, but it's not 50-50. To say it's tough to beat the same team twice would imply the ratio is less than 50-50, it isn't.
My guess is UGA will play OSU in the playoff. OSU would have a good shot at winning I think, the Dawg secondary looked bad last night, though they usually play pretty well.
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Sure, in the smaller subset of NC games there often is a reversal, but overall, if you include CG rematches and playoff rematches, the story is most of the time it is 2-0.
These are competitive games, if it was 50-50, you might think it about as hard to win two, but it's not 50-50. To say it's tough to beat the same team twice would imply the ratio is less than 50-50, it isn't.
My guess is UGA will play OSU in the playoff. OSU would have a good shot at winning I think, the Dawg secondary looked bad last night, though they usually play pretty well.
Well I left a link and I don't think tOSU is anywhere equal to the Dawgs who have a much better defense.Unless there is a disparity in talent or repeated HFA I believe there a lot more teams who win the rematch then you indicate