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I'm not sure USC is a good bet.  There appears, from the outside looking in, to be a debate within the institution about becoming an academic powerhouse vs athletic.  While you can be both, USC seems to be battling through the either/or scenerio.   That could change in the future, but near term, that seems to be a discussion that would not promote a return to football dominance. 

I'd vote Texas.  They have the resources to put it together and a conference that doesn't have a lot of depth currently.   Not saying they'd win, but I could see them making it in the next couple of years.  

To review, the question is which team is most like to make the CFP (not win it) who has not been in it before (FSU is out).

The contenders thus far are:

Field (not Justin, and a favorite thus far)
Texas
USC
Penn State
Florida
Eastern Michigan  (well no)

Michigan has not been mentioned I think, we've talked about Wisconsin separately, so they should be somewhere on the list.  Texas A&M?  Auburn?  They almost made it.

Utah should be somewhere I think.

Personally, I think Utah is just part of the field because they or basically any other PAC team could randomly ruse up and have a great year and there isn't an obvious obstacle (like tOSU/Clemson/Bama/OU in the B1G/ACC/SEC/B12).

What about Michigan? I'm obviously biased but I certainly wouldn't take them ahead of the field. Harbaugh has them "back" in the sense that they are regularly winning the games they should win and being reasonably competitive but in five years under Harbaugh they have only really been close with tOSU once.

Updated for LSU's National Championship:

I ranked by:

• Championships, then by
• Semi-final wins, then by
• Appearances

So, as I see it, there are four groups and then Oklahoma which is a bit of a wild-card:

Group one is Bama and Clemson.  They are now exactly tied.  Each has five appearances, each is now 4-1 in semi-finals, and each is 2-2 in CG's.  

Group two is Ohio State and Louisiana State.  I rate the Buckeyes ahead of the Tigers slightly because they each have one Championship but Ohio State's other five years are substantially better than LSU's.  

Group three is Georgia and Oregon.  They have each made one appearance, they each won the semi-final and lost in the CG.  

Group four is FSU, MSU, ND, and Washington.  They have each made one appearance and they each lost the semi-final.  

Oklahoma is a wild-card because they have four appearances which trails only Bama and Clemson but they have yet to win a CFP game.  

at any point??

certainly when/if Kirk retires

as far as breaking through to the top 4 or top 2, yes

Kirk is best at what he does, consistently winning 8-10 games per year

I don't think Kirk is chasing the recruiting star rankings that it takes to compete in the top 4

He's also not bringing fresh offensive and defensive coaches and overhauling the schemes to try to get to that level

plenty of Great hall of fame coaches don't win a national title - Kirk is a great hall of fame coach, but he doesn't think he can be Ohio St. in Iowa City.

It would be interesting to see what Kirk could do in Columbus, or Tuscaloosa, or Baton Rouge, or Austin, or Norman

We don't have to play them, they have to play us! 

Yup, it's not really fair that LSU has to play Florida, whilst Alabama skates by with Tennessee.

I understand the historical reasons for this particular setup of the annual x-div rivalries, and I support it because longstanding rivalries in college football are very important in my opinion.  If Tennessee were worth a darn, it would all come out in the wash.
But right now, I'm sure you'll agree, that Tennessee is not anywhere near Florida in terms of competitiveness.

Kirk was a goal line stand away from the final four just a few years ago.

Probably the best atmosphere for any of the BiG CCGs thus far.  Intense game.