I was talking about regular season.
With Auburn, the SECCG, then the playoff, those are the only types of teams that could possibly beat Alabama...and to play perhaps 4 of those in a row does diminish the odds of an undefeated season (for anyone).
So no one is "likely" to win the NC, but while all of the other helmets are hovering around 5-6% chance, Alabama is at 20%. Yes, those are taken right out of my ass, but you get the point. Alabama isn't >50% chance to win it all each year, but they're well ahead of anyone else who has a chance.