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Topic: Texas and OU to where?!?!

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utee94

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #378 on: July 28, 2021, 08:18:11 PM »
So many weird things about this. 
As utee says, this is not the kind of thing to go public with, calling out your biggest source of revenue.  Unless it was intended to be confidential and ESPN leaked it to SI. 
Two, it's hard to believe ESPN would be dumb enough to ever directly contact a school.  Their contract is with the conference and to get involved with an individual member would be tortious interference.  Maybe Bowlsby got wind of some backchannel communication?
Whiskey, did you find somewhere it was the AAC?  I know the AAC has been spouting off about being proactive and aggressive.
I wouldn't be surprised if ESPN may have told the AAC that adding some of the Big 12 members would increase their value.


And probably mentioned exactly which 3-5 schools would be beneficial to them.

Even if it was direct contact and explicit instructions though, gonna be tough to prove any kind of TI.

And at this point, Bowlsby is actively sabotaging his member schools' ability to find a soft landing spot should the worst happen to the B12.  How does he think that benefits them?  And how does he think that will go over when he attempts to court new members to his conference?

I get it, that it's his job to act on behalf of the conference.  But doing it publicly, through the media, is absolutely the wrong way to do it.
  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #379 on: July 28, 2021, 08:38:42 PM »
That is a remarkable run of non-suckitude.  Is it more that Ohio State is inherently a place where any competent coach not named Fickell in his first season can drop in and start cranking out winning seasons, or that Ohio State has had preposterously good fortune in choosing head coaches?
OSU is the only P5 program in a populous, fertile state.  It may be as simple as that.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #380 on: July 28, 2021, 09:07:07 PM »
One caveat is that Clemson was doing all of this in a stronger conference than Cincy.

So although some of Cincy's win% look pretty good, it's partly the result of being a moderately dangerous fish in a small pond full of minnows.
Well yeah, you're looking at the context in which it was done.  Whether by strength of conference concurrently or by era (ACC in the 80s vs ACC in the 2010s), context matters.
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As for the FSu/VT thing with longstanding coaches, you'd do the same idea, but just chop up that HC's career at the school.  You'd forget about the peak and go by their years post-peak.  So for Bowden, hell, he had the longest peak ever, but you could consider the state of FSU's program by looking at Bowden's numbers from after his NC in 99 to the end and compare them since he left, I'd expect reasonably close results. 
Bowden from 2000-2009:  .658 win%
FSU since 2010:  .697 win%
So you could argue they got the "right guy" in Fisher, but he happened to leave.  But those win% are in the same ballpark, so I'd say it makes sense.  It does to me, anyway.  We should probably hold FSU somewhere in between those two win% in the future, given they don't sign either an all-time great or horrible dud as HC.
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Lookinig at VT, Beamer peaked in 99-00.  So since 01 to when he left, I'd expect that to be close to VT since he left.  If it's not, then perhaps they merely made a poor hire.  Idk, let's see:
Beamer from 2001-2015:  .698
VT since 2016:  .594
So here, I'd predict VT to be aaround a .650 program going forward, as long as their next HC hire isn't legendary or a dud.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #381 on: July 28, 2021, 09:11:46 PM »
For purely objective reasons and not accounting at all for the fact that my team might be one on the chopping block...

...I'm against expelling members.
I am as well, but upthread or in one of the other threads someone asked about how things would be different if you were making the conference today.  

In that vein, I think that Northwestern probably wouldn't be in the B1G.  They are a charter member from way back when the league (especially before the Lake Forest/Michigan switch) was basically a Chicago Metro Area league with a few nearby large state schools (IL, UW, MN).  At chartering the league had two schools in the Chicago area (NU & UC) and at the pre-charter discussion meeting they had three (NU, UC, and the aforementioned Lake Forest).  

Northwestern definitely made sense when they were one of three Chicago-area private schools.  They made sense at chartering when they were one of two along with the University of Chicago.  Ever since Chicago quit (going on what, 80 years ago) Northwestern has been the odd team in the league.  The other 13 are all large state schools.  Per wiki B1G member enrollment ranges from 61k for tOSU down to 22k for NU.  After NU the next smallest schools are UNL (25k), IA (30k), and UMD (41k).  The median is between #7 PSU's 45,901 and #8 PU's 45,869 so Northwestern is less than half of that.  Additionally, they are a second school in the state of Illinois which isn't really necessary which brings me to . . .

After Northwestern the next two on the list to not be members would be MSU and either IU or PU.  Nothing against the Spartans, Hoosiers, or Boilermakers it is just that the conference doesn't really need two schools in Michigan or Indiana either.  NU, IL, and PU were all charter members while IU was added shortly thereafter (1899) and MSU was added in 1950.  

In the 1900 census (around the time the league decided to have two IN schools (IU and PU) and three IL schools (UC, IL, NU) Indiana and Illinois were the 8th and 3rd most populous states respectively with 3.3% and 6.3% of the total US population.  

In the 1950 census (around the time the league decided to have two MI schools (adding MSU) Michigan was the 7th most populous state with about 4.2% of the total US population.  

Today Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana are the 6th, 10th, and 17th most populous states with 3.8%, 3.0%, and 2.0% of the total US population respectively.  

For the reasons that YOU elaborated previously in relation to Iowa/ISU and Kansas/KSU the three remaining schools after you kicked out one each of NU/IL, IU/PU, and M/MSU would be stronger.  

Also, it makes sense for the SEC to have two Texas schools because Texas is the second most populous state with almost 9% of the total US population.  That was somewhat true back when this league decided to have two schools each in the (at the time) 3rd, 7th, and 8th most populous states which (at those times) had 6.3%, 4.2%, and 3.8% of the US population.  It makes a LOT less sense now that those three states have a combined total population roughly equal to the state of Texas.  Ie, the B1G having two schools each in IL, MI, and IN would be equivalent to the SEC having six schools in Texas.  

So I'm against kicking schools out as a general matter but if we were doing it (or found that we had to) the schools on the block would be NU, MSU, and either IU or PU.  

Now the question of which IN school it would be is interesting.  Purdue was a charter member but Indiana joined in 1899 so it is not like they are some Johnny-come-lately.  Also, Purdue has a larger enrollment but the difference is not significant and the two schools' endowments are also similar in size.  

The obvious advantage of not having two schools each in IL, IN, and MI is that you could replace them with three schools from other states and thus increase the footprint of the league (ie, increase the size of the pie without cutting it into more slices).  

WhiskeyM

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #382 on: July 28, 2021, 10:02:07 PM »
Whiskey, did you find somewhere it was the AAC?  I know the AAC has been spouting off about being proactive and aggressive.
I wouldn't be surprised if ESPN may have told the AAC that adding some of the Big 12 members would increase their value.

Originally the source wasn't named, but now Dennis Dodd and David Cobb are saying Bowlsby himself is giving this information to CBS sports.

Pretty sure Kris posted this article...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-commissioner-alleges-espn-conspired-with-sec-american-to-lure-teams-from-conference/

WhiskeyM

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #383 on: July 28, 2021, 10:11:17 PM »
And at this point, Bowlsby is actively sabotaging his member schools' ability to find a soft landing spot should the worst happen to the B12.  How does he think that benefits them?  And how does he think that will go over when he attempts to court new members to his conference?

I get it, that it's his job to act on behalf of the conference.  But doing it publicly, through the media, is absolutely the wrong way to do it.
 

I think Bowlsby is just fed up.  The guy has been made fun of and mocked for being ineffective for much of his time as B12 commish.  Right or wrong.

Then he gets blind sided by this.  And the way he finds out is by media reports as he's attending to B12 business.

At this point he's just going out guns blazing.  F it.  It's actually kind of heroic.

utee94

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #384 on: July 28, 2021, 11:14:42 PM »
I think Bowlsby is just fed up.  The guy has been made fun of and mocked for being ineffective for much of his time as B12 commish.  Right or wrong.

Then he gets blind sided by this.  And the way he finds out is by media reports as he's attending to B12 business.

At this point he's just going out guns blazing.  F it.  It's actually kind of heroic.

Oh I get it.  But the Blaze of Glory approach isn't going to help him serve his remaining member institutions, nor is it likely to entice new members to a conference that can now only make a deal with ONE potential TV partner, because he decided to burn his relationship with the other one, all the way to the ground.

Very silly and unprofessional, which is a large part of what landed him here in the first place.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #385 on: July 29, 2021, 12:22:33 AM »
Bowlsby is the captain of the Titanic. Does it matter at this point if he publicly yells at the iceberg? 

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #386 on: July 29, 2021, 12:29:22 AM »
Cincy isn't turning down the 12 just because the commish is an incompetent blowhard.

They'd crawl across broken glass from Over Da Rhine, Cincinnati to Irving, Texas to join that league, even now.

Right now their closest Conference mate is Memphis, so geography isn't going to be an issue.
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Gigem

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #387 on: July 29, 2021, 12:40:20 AM »
Hell just froze over. The A&M BoR voted in favor of Tex/OU to join the SEC 8-1. 

Got to say I have a lot of mixed emotions about this. I wanted a little more time away from UT in order for A&M to mature and grow. I’ve always thought we should be more pro-A&M and not so much anti-t.u.  

On the other hand we have a chance to have some really good football, and maybe even get a little payback. Certainly I think we missed out on at least winning 7 of the last 9 or so. Hard to say because both teams had so many ups and downs but for sure A&M is head and shoulders a better program over UT after 9 years. Maybe we can snatch the conference title away from Bama in this last year as a 14 team league. 

Either way it will be a fun ride. 

CWSooner

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #388 on: July 29, 2021, 12:49:23 AM »
Hell just froze over. The A&M BoR voted in favor of Tex/OU to join the SEC 8-1.

Got to say I have a lot of mixed emotions about this. I wanted a little more time away from UT in order for A&M to mature and grow. I’ve always thought we should be more pro-A&M and not so much anti-t.u. 

On the other hand we have a chance to have some really good football, and maybe even get a little payback. Certainly I think we missed out on at least winning 7 of the last 9 or so. Hard to say because both teams had so many ups and downs but for sure A&M is head and shoulders a better program over UT after 9 years. Maybe we can snatch the conference title away from Bama in this last year as a 14 team league.

Either way it will be a fun ride.
I have 3rd-hand insider info, so, FWIW, you may rejoice in not being podded with UT.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #389 on: July 29, 2021, 06:56:53 AM »
Has there ever been a team expelled from a conference?  Seems like Temple was kicked out or at least threatened to.  And there are lots of non-competitive football teams that are sterling in other sports like Kansas and Syracuse.
Didn’t Idaho and New Mexico State get shoved off from the MW a couple years back. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #390 on: July 29, 2021, 07:11:40 AM »
Hell just froze over. The A&M BoR voted in favor of Tex/OU to join the SEC 8-1.

Got to say I have a lot of mixed emotions about this. I wanted a little more time away from UT in order for A&M to mature and grow. I’ve always thought we should be more pro-A&M and not so much anti-t.u. 

On the other hand we have a chance to have some really good football, and maybe even get a little payback. Certainly I think we missed out on at least winning 7 of the last 9 or so. Hard to say because both teams had so many ups and downs but for sure A&M is head and shoulders a better program over UT after 9 years. Maybe we can snatch the conference title away from Bama in this last year as a 14 team league.

Either way it will be a fun ride.
The biggest beneficiary here: Jimmy Sexton.

847badgerfan

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Re: Texas and OU to where?!?!
« Reply #391 on: July 29, 2021, 08:29:21 AM »
He can tell Silve but it probably wouldn't do much good.  He hasn't been commissioner since 2015.
Yeah, I meant Skanky.
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