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Topic: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19

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bayareabadger

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #392 on: October 24, 2019, 09:52:21 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 24, 2019, 01:52:12 PM
An upset of a 20+ point favorite is always an amalgamation of "bad things", depending on your POV.

I recall when a bad Stanford upset USC, a 42 point favorite.  I think that is the biggest I can recall in "recent history".

Rarely does a 20 point dog line up and just take it to the favorite.
That’s accurate, but there was a compression of things that go from the favorite up 9 with the ball on the underdog 25 with less than 7:30 left to an upset. 
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MarqHusker

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #393 on: October 24, 2019, 10:18:22 PM »
When Cuse won at Louisville as a 39 pt dog, they actually had a big lead and then held on for dear life in the end.  

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MarqHusker

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #394 on: October 24, 2019, 10:19:57 PM »
btw the Howard +48 win over UNLV is the biggest upset in college history.   Of course if you're just counting conference matchups, then yeah Stanford/USC,  Cuse at Lvl.    Liberty was a 40+ dog winning at Baylor a couple years ago too.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #395 on: October 25, 2019, 07:53:57 AM »
We should not be shocked by upsets, surprised, yes, chagrined, at times, but not shocked.  Obviously the mild upsets are not that notable unless the game is nationally important.  The big ones are statistically probable during a season ("big" = 20+ point dog winning).  And that often involves a ranked team.

We also have cases like Clemson @ UNC where there was not an upset but the margin was much less than this line.

I wonder if any folks who bet on CFB end up in the black over time.  The House has a 10% vig, correct?  If the line is usually about right, it would be tough to beat.  Maybe some fan bases bet their own team too much, but the Big Money probably doesn't.  The Big Money is probably on the House.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #396 on: October 25, 2019, 08:14:14 AM »
I read in the Milwaukee paper that this Illinois upset was the largest in the B1G since 1982, when NU shocked Minnesota. Or it might have been bigger? Can't recall and can't find the article right now.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #397 on: October 25, 2019, 08:22:24 AM »
UI over UW indeed was very large, I don't recall the spread, the game seemed unimportant before it happened.

Purdue beat OSU a couple years back of course.

I guess ASU over Michigan doesn't count as a conference game.
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FearlessF

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #398 on: October 25, 2019, 08:41:26 AM »
wondering what the ASU over Nebraska spread was back in 96
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #399 on: October 25, 2019, 08:42:42 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 24, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
All the existing news outlets have fractured, separated, and catered to the masses' wilingness to believe anything....their online homepages are criss-crossed with ads amongst their actual news stories.  It needs a reset button, that's all.
Facebook launches a news section - and will pay publishers

https://apnews.com/95fc841e4f3f4b0ab4414cbd9719acf5


What could possibly go wrong!
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #400 on: October 25, 2019, 08:42:59 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 25, 2019, 07:53:57 AM
We should not be shocked by upsets, surprised, yes, chagrined, at times, but not shocked.  Obviously the mild upsets are not that notable unless the game is nationally important.  The big ones are statistically probable during a season ("big" = 20+ point dog winning).  And that often involves a ranked team.

We also have cases like Clemson @ UNC where there was not an upset but the margin was much less than this line.

I wonder if any folks who bet on CFB end up in the black over time.  The House has a 10% vig, correct?  If the line is usually about right, it would be tough to beat.  Maybe some fan bases bet their own team too much, but the Big Money probably doesn't.  The Big Money is probably on the House.
Vig is less than that. IIRC, 54-55 percent against the spread is very good. 58 and you can buy a building.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #401 on: October 25, 2019, 08:46:31 AM »
Ah, thanks, I heard 10% somewhere, 5% sounds more realistic, closer to blackjack and roulette.

I wonder what proportion of their profits come from each segment of gambling.  Maybe sports betting is half of it?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #402 on: October 25, 2019, 08:47:12 AM »
One can of course bet on stocks with a pretty low "vig (commission) using options.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #403 on: October 25, 2019, 09:55:15 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on October 24, 2019, 08:15:06 PM
All the existing news outlets have fractured, separated, and catered to the masses' wilingness to believe anything....their online homepages are criss-crossed with ads amongst their actual news stories.  It needs a reset button, that's all.
If you're interested in biographies, I highly recommend The Chief, the biography of William Randolph Hearst.

I think you'll find that the idea of deceptive journalism is not the least bit new. 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #404 on: October 25, 2019, 10:01:59 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 25, 2019, 08:42:59 AM
Vig is less than that. IIRC, 54-55 percent against the spread is very good. 58 and you can buy a building.

At -110 odds, the break even point is winning 52.4% of your bets.

So yes, 54-55% is pretty good, and a consistent 58% would be remarkable. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Stream of Conciousness 2019-10-19
« Reply #405 on: October 25, 2019, 10:05:02 AM »
I just learned two new words, which I will soon forget:

monadnock

inselberg

Both mean about the same thing nearly as I can understand.

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