Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I get that - the question is more about used car prices, which are supposedly at an all time high. Buying used only makes sense if you are getting a good deal, but I see conflicting things things about where people think car prices will go. The lease would be more about punting for a couple years and seeing what the market is then.

Ok, that's much more useful context. The portion of the car market I'll deal with soon will be the "cheap beater for a teenager", so probably not the same class of used vehicle you're talking about.

What I'd suggest is that you look at the used car market and look at the financial impact of leasing for a few years. I.e. let's say your lease up-front fees mostly uses up the $5K they want in trade-in... Not sure what you're looking at but I often see the ads talking about $4K due at signing, so we're in the ballpark. Let's say your lease is $350/month, for 36 months.

That would work out to $17K over that time.

Or, if you sell your used car on the (inflated as you point out) private market, do you think you could get $6K or $7K for it instead of the $5K you're being offered in trade? (Note: selling used/private market may be its own good decision even if you choose to lease--you usually get more than what's offered in trade.) What kind of car would you be looking at, at what price range, if you bought used? How "all time high" is it really and how much do you think it'll come down in three years?

That's how I approach the question. If spending $17K (or whatever your number) for 3 years saves me $10K when I buy in three years? Probably worth it b/c that means I'm actually only spending $7K over those three years to lease the car. But if it means it only saves me $3K when I buy in three years? Probably not worth it because I'm spending $14K on a dead asset rather than simply eating the $3K to purchase an asset that will have value down the road. Especially if the idea that used car prices will come down three years from now is effectively just a bet and not guaranteed.

Trading versus selling depends on how taxes are computed. I have not bought a car here so I don't know. Back in IL, you paid tax on the difference - new car minus trade value. That could be a big number.

Ok, that's much more useful context. The portion of the car market I'll deal with soon will be the "cheap beater for a teenager", so probably not the same class of used vehicle you're talking about.

What I'd suggest is that you look at the used car market and look at the financial impact of leasing for a few years. I.e. let's say your lease up-front fees mostly uses up the $5K they want in trade-in... Not sure what you're looking at but I often see the ads talking about $4K due at signing, so we're in the ballpark. Let's say your lease is $350/month, for 36 months.

That would work out to $17K over that time.

Or, if you sell your used car on the (inflated as you point out) private market, do you think you could get $6K or $7K for it instead of the $5K you're being offered in trade? (Note: selling used/private market may be its own good decision even if you choose to lease--you usually get more than what's offered in trade.) What kind of car would you be looking at, at what price range, if you bought used? How "all time high" is it really and how much do you think it'll come down in three years?

That's how I approach the question. If spending $17K (or whatever your number) for 3 years saves me $10K when I buy in three years? Probably worth it b/c that means I'm actually only spending $7K over those three years to lease the car. But if it means it only saves me $3K when I buy in three years? Probably not worth it because I'm spending $14K on a dead asset rather than simply eating the $3K to purchase an asset that will have value down the road. Especially if the idea that used car prices will come down three years from now is effectively just a bet and not guaranteed.