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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17570 on: March 01, 2022, 03:44:59 PM »
7-day MA for cases now below the lowest point of the Delta wave:


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17571 on: March 01, 2022, 03:46:09 PM »
I have not seen reports of another "variant of concern" (yet).  we seem to be due about every three months or so.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17572 on: March 01, 2022, 03:54:06 PM »
7-day MA for cases now below the lowest point of the Delta wave:


the new deaths is falling but at a rate that just doesnt seem right tp me

as talked about earlier I am very interested in seeing deaths from all causes compared to a norm

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17573 on: March 01, 2022, 03:55:42 PM »
I have not seen reports of another "variant of concern" (yet).  we seem to be due about every three months or so.
There's been a spattering of news about BA.2, but so far nothing that I've seen that it's going to bubble up and be notable. 

As I said a few weeks ago, I don't think there will be another significant wave. What made Omicron so able to evade vaccine and natural immunity was a massive R0 (potentially as high as 10), making it one of the most transmissible viruses that we know of. 

The immunity provided by vaccines (incl boosters) and natural infection should do very well to protect against variants with lower R0. While it's possible that the virus could further mutate to an even higher R0, I think it's likely that being so successful at burning through the population has given it far fewer hosts going forward to do so. And mutation to lower R0 will just cause it to die out faster. 

Now, I could be wrong. I'm not an epidemiologist; I only play one on the internet. But I think Omicron is the end of this. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17574 on: March 01, 2022, 03:59:32 PM »

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17575 on: March 01, 2022, 04:01:51 PM »
the new deaths is falling but at a rate that just doesnt seem right tp me

as talked about earlier I am very interested in seeing deaths from all causes compared to a norm


Ask and ye shall receive...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm



Note that the data for the last few weeks will change, as it relies on official coroner's reports to bubble up through the associated reporting systems. 

Green line is considered "average" number of expected deaths. Red line is the threshold at which it is determined that we're in "excess" territory. You can see the beginning of 2018 showing excess, because the 2017-2018 flu season was really bad. 

I see nothing here to suggest that the numbers of deaths reported as COVID deaths were people were dying "with" COVID rather than "from" COVID. The curves basically look identical to the Worldometers curve laid atop the normal death numbers, for each and every wave of the virus. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17576 on: March 01, 2022, 04:03:15 PM »
Im talking about deaths in the US from the beginning of omicron to the present

that data probably wont be available for at least another 1 to 2 months
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17577 on: March 01, 2022, 04:06:29 PM »
it would be nice to actually be able to see the numbers and not a graph

the obvious thing is comparing total omicron deaths to total excess deaths

but I can really do that looking at the graph
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17578 on: March 01, 2022, 04:06:44 PM »
Im talking about deaths in the US from the beginning of omicron to the present

that data probably wont be available for at least another 1 to 2 months
No, it's right there. As I've mentioned, the issue with the data is that anything within the last 4 weeks is probably incomplete, so you really can only base it on what's good through the end of January. 

But Omicron hit the US in force in mid-Dec, and death rates inflected right around the new year, so you have at least one good month of data (January) in there. 

The February data will firm up over the course of March. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17579 on: March 01, 2022, 04:08:08 PM »
it would be nice to actually be able to see the numbers and not a graph

the obvious thing is comparing total omicron deaths to total excess deaths

but I can really do that looking at the graph
You know, you could click the link... And download the raw data in CSV and import to Excel, and see it any way you'd like. 

You can even do it sorted by cause of death. 

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17580 on: March 01, 2022, 04:13:40 PM »
The ODNI released a report in which I believe said one US intelligence agency believed it was leaked from a lab. Other intelligence agencies disagreed with that assessment however- they weren't confident in any of their conclusions and there was no consensus- there are 16 or 17 agencies after all - in all it was mostly a useless report that confirmed nothing. Robert Redfield - a trained virologist and the former head of the CDC - who has seen information that most people alive have not- also believes it came from a lab.

To me a near smoking gun - which everyone seems to be ignoring - is the rejected DARPA grant proposal from EcoHealth Alliance in 2018- (who was funding and partnering with the Wuhan lab on bat coronavirus research projects) - it f**king literally was a blueprint for creating SARS-COV2 like virus in a lab. And just a year later- an almost exact virus that infects human tissue the exact same way as would the one proposed in the rejected DARPA lab - leaks out and destroys the entire world from a city that happens to have a bat coronavirus lab that EcoHealth was partnering with. The odds of this - have to be astronomically low. It's a fantastical coincidence - and I for one do not believe in coincidences.

The fact that China went into full cover-up mode and deleted an entire public database of bat coronaviruses and the research that was done in that lab- then claimed the database was deleted for "hacking concerns" - really - it's a public database - who would need to hack a public database + those leaked Fauci/NIH/EcoHealth emails which clearly showed major concern and them going into crisis mode/damage control mode and trying to push a narrative they knew wasn't true + the fact that Fauci has more than once lied under oath by playing weasel words in regards to NIH funding gain of function research (not to mention- HE is the one who turned gain of function funding back on in 2017, after the Obama administration shut it down in 2014) + that leaked rejected DARPA grant - lot of shit just does not add up or hold water.

Probably the best reporting on any of this stuff that I saw was from The Intercept and....Joe Rogan. His interviews with Dr. Sanjay Gupta, investigative reporter at the Washington Post Josh Rogin, and evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein were all amazing. Should be forced watching for everyone.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhKlkkc2Eo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaT0WOwEag4


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQLF4DUSXGs

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17581 on: March 01, 2022, 04:23:25 PM »
I looked at 2 weeks WE 1/15 and WE1/22

Total excess deaths for both weeks was between 20 and 22 thousand

covid deaths for each of those weeks was only between 14 and 18 thousand

so that looks like actual covid deaths was higher then previous reports which really doesnt support my point so I guess I'll look at it again when Feb and March data is in

plus we are taking their word for normal expected deaths and Id like to see if there are other sources later
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17582 on: March 01, 2022, 04:28:39 PM »
I looked at 2 weeks WE 1/15 and WE1/22

Total excess deaths for both weeks was between 20 and 22 thousand

covid deaths for each of those weeks was only between 14 and 18 thousand

so that looks like actual covid deaths was higher then previous reports which really doesnt support my point so I guess I'll look at it again when Feb and March data is in

plus we are taking their word for normal expected deaths and Id like to see if there are other sources later
Nah when data doesn't support your point then you just need to search for a different data source.  What kind of internet poster are you????

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17583 on: March 01, 2022, 04:37:33 PM »
Nah when data doesn't support your point then you just need to search for a different data source.  What kind of internet poster are you????
believe me I would if it existed
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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