header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

 (Read 771197 times)

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17718
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17206 on: January 25, 2022, 07:14:49 PM »
Not going to weigh in on that, because I don't have the time to research an informed opinion on the science and/or the political reasoning thereof.

I will say that as a very general axiom in my political philosophy, I don't agree with the FDA blocking people from treatments that they want and can pay for, especially if the treatments have no or very minimal known negative effects.
This is what I find puzzling.  Well, it's one of two things I find puzzling.

1) The FDA constructs a syllogism with the major premise being, that this monoclonal antibody treatment doesn't work on Omicron.  And the minor premise being, that 99% or more cases in the USA are Omicron.  Leading to the conclusion, that the antibody treatment would not be effective for the vast majority of cases in the USA and therefore shouldn't be allowed and made available in the USA.  They cite a source for the minor premise, but make no such citation for the major premise.  And the major premise is the critical and most compelling one.

2) The FDA cites, as the risk, nothing more than soreness at the injection site, and allergic reactions.  That's it.  Which doesn't seem like nearly enough to just ban the treatments out of hand.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17207 on: January 25, 2022, 07:43:27 PM »
So here's my understanding of how this stuff works... I'm throwing it out there hoping people can correct me if I'm wrong.

The basic idea of an antibody is that it prevents a virus from binding to a cell and thereby turning that cell into a manufacturing site for more virus. 

So that's what it is. The more antibodies you have in your system, the more they can stop the virus from attaching, and thus they slow down the replication rate of the virus in your system. 

Your immune system is designed to produce antibodies once it gets the "recipe" after encountering the virus. 


  • The idea of the mRNA vaccine was to use your own cells to produce the spike protein of SARS-nCOV-2, so that your immune system suddenly sees that protein as a threat and develops antibodies targeted at that protein. 
  • For the vaccine, your body will produce a boatload of antibodies once you get the vaccine. But eventually the protein isn't around any more, the antibodies degrade, and start to wane. BUT, your B cells (the antibody manufacturing sites) now have the recipe for that antibody, and have memory of that protein, so they can jump into action MUCH faster after having the vaccine than before. 
  • For natural infection, your body will do the same thing. It will produce a boatload of antibodies to neutralize the threat. The downside is that instead of your body being filled with [harmless] spike protein because of the vaccine, your body is full of active virus that is anything from harmless. But the same concept applies. Your body may see a drop in antibodies over time, but as long as your B cells have the "recipe", they can make more rapidly. 
  • Because your antibodies wane in absence of a threat, you are still susceptible to new infection [via Delta or Omicron]. But the idea is that once those B cells have memory to create antibodies, they can create them in enormous quantities. 


Infection by the virus is a race. The virus is trying to replicate as much of itself as possible as fast as possible. Your body may not detect the virus until after it gains a foothold, and then it has to play catch-up. The vaccine or natural infection means that you've probably got antibodies swimming around in your system which give you a head-start in that race even though your B cells haven't started producing new antibodies. If you've never had COVID or a vaccine, then monoclonal antibodies are an artificial way of upping your head start while your immune system tries to catch up and produce enough on its own. 

IMHO if it's a race, the question is who you're racing against. Omicron is Usain Bolt. Fast as %^&$ but not very violent. Delta is Mike Singletary. Fast, sure, but not by modern standards, but violent as hell. The original strains were Ndamukong Suh. Slow (by football standards, not by human standards), and will flatten you to a pancake and crush your lungs. Your B cells can go 100 mph (faster than any of them), but don't accelerate as fast as any of them either. 

If you have some level of immunity, your body can produce enough antibodies quickly enough to beat any of them in a race, but they might roll right past your head start and make it unpleasant for a little while. 

It's possible that because monoclonal antibodies are limited in numbers, maybe the head start it gives you over Omicron isn't enough to make that big of a difference in outcomes. I don't know. 

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5807
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17208 on: January 25, 2022, 08:11:11 PM »
So here's my understanding of how this stuff works... I'm throwing it out there hoping people can correct me if I'm wrong.

The basic idea of an antibody is that it prevents a virus from binding to a cell and thereby turning that cell into a manufacturing site for more virus.

So that's what it is. The more antibodies you have in your system, the more they can stop the virus from attaching, and thus they slow down the replication rate of the virus in your system.

Your immune system is designed to produce antibodies once it gets the "recipe" after encountering the virus.


  • The idea of the mRNA vaccine was to use your own cells to produce the spike protein of SARS-nCOV-2, so that your immune system suddenly sees that protein as a threat and develops antibodies targeted at that protein.
  • For the vaccine, your body will produce a boatload of antibodies once you get the vaccine. But eventually the protein isn't around any more, the antibodies degrade, and start to wane. BUT, your B cells (the antibody manufacturing sites) now have the recipe for that antibody, and have memory of that protein, so they can jump into action MUCH faster after having the vaccine than before.
  • For natural infection, your body will do the same thing. It will produce a boatload of antibodies to neutralize the threat. The downside is that instead of your body being filled with [harmless] spike protein because of the vaccine, your body is full of active virus that is anything from harmless. But the same concept applies. Your body may see a drop in antibodies over time, but as long as your B cells have the "recipe", they can make more rapidly.
  • Because your antibodies wane in absence of a threat, you are still susceptible to new infection [via Delta or Omicron]. But the idea is that once those B cells have memory to create antibodies, they can create them in enormous quantities.


Infection by the virus is a race. The virus is trying to replicate as much of itself as possible as fast as possible. Your body may not detect the virus until after it gains a foothold, and then it has to play catch-up. The vaccine or natural infection means that you've probably got antibodies swimming around in your system which give you a head-start in that race even though your B cells haven't started producing new antibodies. If you've never had COVID or a vaccine, then monoclonal antibodies are an artificial way of upping your head start while your immune system tries to catch up and produce enough on its own.

IMHO if it's a race, the question is who you're racing against. Omicron is Usain Bolt. Fast as %^&$ but not very violent. Delta is Mike Singletary. Fast, sure, but not by modern standards, but violent as hell. The original strains were Ndamukong Suh. Slow (by football standards, not by human standards), and will flatten you to a pancake and crush your lungs. Your B cells can go 100 mph (faster than any of them), but don't accelerate as fast as any of them either.

If you have some level of immunity, your body can produce enough antibodies quickly enough to beat any of them in a race, but they might roll right past your head start and make it unpleasant for a little while.

It's possible that because monoclonal antibodies are limited in numbers, maybe the head start it gives you over Omicron isn't enough to make that big of a difference in outcomes. I don't know.
Great analogies!  Using football players. 

gave me a much better picture. 

sometimes that’s the best way to teach us non engineer types- draw us a mental picture😂😂
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18898
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17209 on: January 25, 2022, 08:25:24 PM »
Damn, Suh killed how many people?!?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17210 on: January 25, 2022, 08:51:44 PM »
Damn, Suh killed how many people?!?
He's no Aaron Hernandez, he only kills them on the field.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 17718
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17211 on: January 25, 2022, 11:03:24 PM »
He just about killed Colt McCoy in the 2009 B12 CCG.


FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37597
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17212 on: January 26, 2022, 01:22:30 PM »
he stomped on a Packer lineman's head

since it was a Packer, I'll allow it
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

GopherRock

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2436
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17213 on: January 26, 2022, 01:35:45 PM »
He just about killed Colt McCoy in the 2009 B12 CCG.


Also the Mizzou QB in that Thursday game in a hurricane that served as Suh's coming-out party.

GopherRock

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2436
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17214 on: January 26, 2022, 04:53:00 PM »
Both the shit and the COVID quantities are heading downhill.


https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1486452895000272898?s=20



bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7868
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17215 on: January 26, 2022, 06:48:30 PM »
This is what I find puzzling.  Well, it's one of two things I find puzzling.

1) The FDA constructs a syllogism with the major premise being, that this monoclonal antibody treatment doesn't work on Omicron.  And the minor premise being, that 99% or more cases in the USA are Omicron.  Leading to the conclusion, that the antibody treatment would not be effective for the vast majority of cases in the USA and therefore shouldn't be allowed and made available in the USA.  They cite a source for the minor premise, but make no such citation for the major premise.  And the major premise is the critical and most compelling one.

2) The FDA cites, as the risk, nothing more than soreness at the injection site, and allergic reactions.  That's it.  Which doesn't seem like nearly enough to just ban the treatments out of hand.
So, the thing I don't totally get is the mechanics.

As we discussed, the thing is banned for use when it comes to omicron. I'd assume the logic is from the snake oil side of things. There's some space where we limit people from saying "here's a miracle cure" and it's just sugar pills. Both producers of the now partially blocked treatments have either agreed or not disagreed with the omicron assessment (at least that's what I read). 

Now it appears an option for non-omicron COVID. But it also looks like supplies were running through the federal government, which shut down that pipeline, given the stuff above. So I'm not sure how the trafficking of that functions. It's also interesting that there is a third version of that treatment which sounds like it works for Omicron and is still available. 

And I honestly don't know the history of the process there. Like, are doctors allowed to offer people treatments that likely don't work, but are safe? (I'm reminded of some story I heard in the 1990s where parents were badgering doctors to give their kids antibiotics for viral conditions because they'd been told it would work, felt like it worked previously or just wanted to feel proactive)

There's maybe some more analysis of the reaction, but I'll abstain there, as it takes us off topic in that way we often get off topic. 

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5807
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17216 on: January 26, 2022, 07:23:56 PM »
So, the thing I don't totally get is the mechanics.

As we discussed, the thing is banned for use when it comes to omicron. I'd assume the logic is from the snake oil side of things. There's some space where we limit people from saying "here's a miracle cure" and it's just sugar pills. Both producers of the now partially blocked treatments have either agreed or not disagreed with the omicron assessment (at least that's what I read).

Now it appears an option for non-omicron COVID. But it also looks like supplies were running through the federal government, which shut down that pipeline, given the stuff above. So I'm not sure how the trafficking of that functions. It's also interesting that there is a third version of that treatment which sounds like it works for Omicron and is still available.

And I honestly don't know the history of the process there. Like, are doctors allowed to offer people treatments that likely don't work, but are safe? (I'm reminded of some story I heard in the 1990s where parents were badgering doctors to give their kids antibiotics for viral conditions because they'd been told it would work, felt like it worked previously or just wanted to feel proactive)

There's maybe some more analysis of the reaction, but I'll abstain there, as it takes us off topic in that way we often get off topic.
It’s pretty simple really. The medication‘s were working very well for Covid patients who already had Covid. It accelerated the recovery and reduced their symptoms. Florida opened numerous clinics around the state to facilitate that.  Doctors liked it because so many other patients, after hearing through the grapevine from their neighbor or whatever that it worked, were requesting those medication‘s. 
The FDA granted emergency approval.

now the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant, Which is over 90% of the cases in the United States right now,
so they discontinued their approval which no longer allows even patients who request it or doctors who requested to get the medication‘s.

You can form your own opinions about the motivation for that.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5807
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17217 on: January 26, 2022, 07:28:15 PM »
I will add that in the public spat between the FDA and the state of Florida, the FDA claims that the governor of Florida is promoting medication instead of vaccinations.

Representatives of the state of Florida responded to that with the fact that the majority of people getting these treatments have already been vaccinated.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7868
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17218 on: January 26, 2022, 08:46:46 PM »
It’s pretty simple really. The medication‘s were working very well for Covid patients who already had Covid. It accelerated the recovery and reduced their symptoms. Florida opened numerous clinics around the state to facilitate that.  Doctors liked it because so many other patients, after hearing through the grapevine from their neighbor or whatever that it worked, were requesting those medication‘s. 
The FDA granted emergency approval.

now the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant, Which is over 90% of the cases in the United States right now,
so they discontinued their approval which no longer allows even patients who request it or doctors who requested to get the medication‘s.

You can form your own opinions about the motivation for that.
Wouldn't the FDA have had to grant emergency approval before the first part? 

Anyway, I don't have a dog in the fight (other than assuming things are oft less interesting than the stories we want to tell, I suppose). I don't care if people can get it or not and lord knows, not I nor basically anyone here has a good read on the actual overall effectiveness of the treatment. But there are sort of three prongs. 


1. "the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant"

One of the two companies whose monoclonal antibodies treatments were pulled back basically said in guarded PR-ese, it's not as effective vs omicron. The other was mum, and I think pointed to another release about developing something new. Interestingly, there's a third monoclonal antibodies treatment authorized, but they need to make more of it.

So it's not like the companies are fighting to make clear this actually does work to help against omicron. 

2. There's a larger, interesting question of how to deal with a medicine that people want, but testing seems to show is ineffective. Basically, should a doctor be able to sell me antibiotics for viral issues if I really, really want them? Maybe yes? The FDA in some sense exists to ensure you're not being sold ineffective medicine, but we can debate whether that needs to exist.

3. The motivation part is interesting because it's only really a political move if the treatment has already been politicized. At it's base, it's just a treatment. It's got zero to to with politics unless politician X makes is part of his or her platform. And then that person's supporters make supporting it part of the act of supporting their tribe. 

What's impressive and unfortunate about an act like that is it becomes a political tool coming and going. If people are getting treated, you claim success. If it get's blocked, you get to be aggrieved, the finest tool a modern pol possesses. It's a great bit to ensure that this apparently helpful medicine is divisive, which in the end is a bit of a shame for everyone. 

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5807
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #17219 on: January 26, 2022, 09:38:18 PM »
Wouldn't the FDA have had to grant emergency approval before the first part?

Anyway, I don't have a dog in the fight (other than assuming things are oft less interesting than the stories we want to tell, I suppose). I don't care if people can get it or not and lord knows, not I nor basically anyone here has a good read on the actual overall effectiveness of the treatment. But there are sort of three prongs.


1. "the FDA claims, without proof that anybody can see, that it is not effective against the omicron variant"

One of the two companies whose monoclonal antibodies treatments were pulled back basically said in guarded PR-ese, it's not as effective vs omicron. The other was mum, and I think pointed to another release about developing something new. Interestingly, there's a third monoclonal antibodies treatment authorized, but they need to make more of it.

So it's not like the companies are fighting to make clear this actually does work to help against omicron.

2. There's a larger, interesting question of how to deal with a medicine that people want, but testing seems to show is ineffective. Basically, should a doctor be able to sell me antibiotics for viral issues if I really, really want them? Maybe yes? The FDA in some sense exists to ensure you're not being sold ineffective medicine, but we can debate whether that needs to exist.

3. The motivation part is interesting because it's only really a political move if the treatment has already been politicized. At it's base, it's just a treatment. It's got zero to to with politics unless politician X makes is part of his or her platform. And then that person's supporters make supporting it part of the act of supporting their tribe.

What's impressive and unfortunate about an act like that is it becomes a political tool coming and going. If people are getting treated, you claim success. If it get's blocked, you get to be aggrieved, the finest tool a modern pol possesses. It's a great bit to ensure that this apparently helpful medicine is divisive, which in the end is a bit of a shame for everyone.
For someone who always alleges to be open minded, your position on virtually everything is so totally predictable
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.