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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16338 on: November 19, 2021, 12:04:26 PM »
Yes here in Florida they are very proactive and will let me know as soon as it’s available, at which time I will go right ahead and get it. 
You can get it right now. I got mine 2 weeks ago and I'm only 54.

First two Moderna, booster was Pfizer. No complications. Not even a sore arm. I'm drunk on antibodies.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16339 on: November 19, 2021, 03:47:42 PM »
You can get it right now. I got mine 2 weeks ago and I'm only 54.

First two Moderna, booster was Pfizer. No complications. Not even a sore arm. I'm drunk on antibodies.
Yep.  Got an email 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16340 on: November 22, 2021, 12:29:10 PM »
Getting kids vaccinated could make a real difference going forward, according to estimates by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a collection of university and medical research organizations that consolidates models of how the pandemic may unfold. The hub’s latest estimates show that for this November through March 12, 2022, vaccinating 5- to 11-year-olds would avert about 430,000 COVID cases in the overall U.S. population if no new variant arose. If a variant 50% more transmissible than delta showed up in late fall, 860,000 cases would be averted, “a big impact,” said project co-leader Katriona Shea, of Pennsylvania State University.

Delta remains dominant for now, accounting for more than 99% of analyzed coronavirus specimens in the United States. Scientists aren’t sure exactly why. Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University, said it may be intrinsically more infectious, or it may be evading at least in part the protection people get from vaccines or having been infected before.


https://apnews.com/article/how0covid-shots-for-kids-prevent-variants-0dd394ddd053e0efb3f3137dba2ad470
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16341 on: November 22, 2021, 12:39:48 PM »
I don't think 5-11 year olds are enough of a threat vector to infecting adults, to make a significant impact in future spread.


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16342 on: November 22, 2021, 12:43:37 PM »
some scientists agree with you, some don't
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16343 on: November 22, 2021, 12:45:08 PM »
1 positive case on the ship. Nobody else has it. I do not know who the person is.

They used restaurant and bar records, as well as security cameras, to locate all those who came in contact. None of those people have it.

Live life, people. 

Live life.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16344 on: November 22, 2021, 01:14:23 PM »
I'm living large today.  Going to mow the leaves in the yard, then winterize the rider.  clean up the gatage

if I accomplish all this..... rewarded with a trip to Old Chicago taproom for happy hour at 3pm!!!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16345 on: November 22, 2021, 01:28:01 PM »
My 9 yo will have her second shot on or around Dec 4, and then +2 weeks after that everyone in my household will be fully vaccinated. Except the dog. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16346 on: November 22, 2021, 01:28:41 PM »
I'm living large today.  Going to mow the leaves in the yard, then winterize the rider.  clean up the gatage

if I accomplish all this..... rewarded with a trip to Old Chicago taproom for happy hour at 3pm!!!
They almost make deep dish pizza!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16347 on: November 22, 2021, 01:39:46 PM »
On another forum I brought up the Israeli study about vaccinated vs unvaccinated strength and durability of immunity. 

Specifically it was brought up in the context of how necessary it is to get the booster as opposed to taking my chances with COVID in the wild, given that I've gotten my 2 shots and that protection against hospitalization/death seems to be far more durable than immunity from infection. 

The below was a response from someone whose depth of thought on the matter is worthy of respect, and so I thought I'd share it here...


Quote
Factcheck.org covers some of the issues concerning that Israeli study. They mention two studies at the end of The Study's Limitations that arrive at different conclusions than the Israeli study, plus several other issues with the study.

A little more disagreement can be found at Quora, where the matched case aspect of the study is addressed.

The study is published here. It's not particularly long. It's not peer reviewed AFAIK.
Some things I note.
1. They conduct multivariate logistic regression analyses. They don't mention whether they are using a yes or a no in the four dependent variables they study under each model. It would be evident in the code, but you have to request it and it's in Python and I don't use Python anyway. Logistic regression models model binary dependent variables (yes/no, success/failure, infected/not infected). Minor point, they probably have it coded correctly but it is easy to make a mistake because software may default to alphabetical order for instance and it might not be the order one wants for the odds ratios.
2. I mention 1. because they keep ignoring that age is significant or age and SES is significant when they so they were no significant covariates. It's the way they write it out that's irksome. They picked the covariates because they thought they would be important but when they do find the important ones, they brush them off. More importantly, they did not use interaction terms at all. There could have been age differences that depended on whether the person was vaccinated.
3. They only present one table from each of their models 1-3 but they say they used 4 different dependent variables which means there should be 4 tables for each model. I would be particularly interested in seeing the tables where death was the independent variable. "We evaluated four SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes, or second events: documented RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19, COVID-19-related hospitalization and death." Which is to say, yes or no for each of those four types of events, with there being four analyses for Model 1-3. This makes me question greatly their expertise in analysis.
4. I don't normally do matched case analyses, and I don't recall the nuances when using them. I think perhaps though they should have used survival analysis (specifically Cox Proportional hazards) instead of logistic regression. Survival analysis definitely should be used for modeling death, it's the better choice.
5. They have treated SES as a continuous variable. It is based on several parameters and then an index is created from 1 to 10. It's extremely doubtful the index should be treated as a continuous variable. That would make their model misspecified. If I was reviewing it, I would make them rerun it correctly as I wouldn't expect they could justify the index properly as continuous. There is no reference cited for the calculation of the index.
6. They only looked at the Pfizer vaccine.

I put this one separate.
7. There's a bunch of dead people not included in Models 1 and 2. The vaccinated are all the people who did not get Covid (naive) vs. the people who survived Covid. The weak ones have died and the infected ones have had a regular case. In other words, natural immunity looks good in this study unless you are one of the weak ones.

I would be very interested to see how this study does after peer review. Some medical journals are really lax though, they just report basic statistics in short journal articles and call it a day.

I did mention a ways back a couple studies looking at comparisons between vaxed and unvaxed groups,.

It doesn't make a lot of sense though to forgo the booster if you feel it is endemic and you haven't gotten Covid yet. The vaccines do help prevent the disease. If you are one of the unlucky (think weak) ones it would be extending your life in exchange for a short pharmacy visit. Or you might still end up in the hospital anyway which is still a bonus in some ways but sucks in general. Lots of younger people who thought they were strong and didn't get vaccinated and are now dead.
Just food for thought. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16348 on: November 22, 2021, 02:44:02 PM »
some scientists agree with you, some don't
Don't really need scientists for this one, we have close to two years of data in school systems all over the world.  

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16349 on: November 22, 2021, 04:26:16 PM »
They almost make deep dish pizza!

Detroit-style deep dish pizza - new menu item!!!

May be an image of food
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16350 on: November 22, 2021, 04:40:38 PM »
Detroit-style deep dish pizza - new menu item!!!

May be an image of food
the only detroit pizza there is brother....the original buddys at 6 mile and conant st...




utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #16351 on: November 22, 2021, 04:44:56 PM »
Looks tasty, I'd eat that.

 

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