Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

why should they not be different

different climate
different government making decisions
outside factors like how close to the Mexican boarder
denseness of the population
population of state

Well, I'm not saying they shouldn't be different. 

I'll make it simpler. You can largely remove population of state and density of the population, as I deliberately chose the four most populous states in the US. Those states all have large metropolitan areas and large land mass that is mostly rural. Yet their graphs are very different from one another.

I also deliberately chose the four most populous states because there is a certain level of stability in large numbers. It should create a "smoothing effect" that would make the data much more noisy for the four least populous states.

Two of the states border Mexico, and their graphs are very different from each other. 

Three of the states have temperate climates, and those three have very different graphs from each other. 

The four states have very different government attitudes and policies to COVID. They also have very different political leanings and attitudes that are preexisting before government policy (and may make certain policies more or less viable). 

BTW I'm not saying some of these graphs are good and others are bad. I can point to things about the policies in all four states that I disagreed with, were handled poorly, etc. 

I'm just asking for someone to explain what caused the shapes in various locales. Maybe it's government. Maybe it's vaccination rates. Maybe it's demographics. Maybe it's just personal attitudes about risk tolerance and compliance with government policies. 

I don't know. That's why I'm asking. 

I can speak for Florida.

The latest spike in the deaths were old people who would not take the vaccine. Old people tend to have other health issues, and this was it for them.

When it started to get really hot out, these people hung out inside with others, outside of their household, pretending that there was no pandemic.

I bet their families wish they had gotten the Vax.

Interesting... I've attached what CA reports for vaccination rates by age.

I don't know how our 74.5% full vaccination rate (+7.4% partial) compares to Florida for the 65+ age group. 

I will say that 74.5% doesn't seem like a very high number to me. 

Looking at this it suggests Florida has a much higher vaccination rate: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

65+ is currently at 89% in Florida, significantly higher than California.

Florida does have more 65+ as a percentage of population than California does. So that could affect things.

Florida is about 4.6M out of 19.1M, or 24% of the population. That should leave about 500K unvaccinated elderly Floridians.

California has about 6.4M out of 40M, or 16% of the population. But California--and we'll add all first dose and fully vaccinated together for 81.9% rate, should have a population of about 1.15M unvaccinated elderly. 

Yet with more than double the population of unvaccinated elderly residents, Florida was peaking at 300-400 deaths/day during Delta while California was seeing a maximum of ~200 a day. 

Not even looking at elderly, California has double the population of Florida but a little over half the number of deaths per day. If we SWAG it and say that the elderly drive those death rates and [incorrectly] assume all deaths are 65+, California has MORE than double the unvaccinated population but is somewhere around 1/2 to 2/3 the peak daily death rate as Florida. 

So I have to think it's more complicated than JUST reticence of some elderly Floridians to get the jab, because we have more elderly Californians AND a higher percentage of them aren't vaccinated than Florida, but a lower death rate. 

I could make the argument that the Floridian elderly are less healthy than the Californian elderly. 

Because we all know that Florida is where old New Yorkers go to die retire, and Arizona is where old Californians go to die retire.

Of course, Arizona's Delta surge was a lot smaller on a per-capita basis than Florida. So I don't know what to make of that. 

Here is the most recent death data for FL:



And here is that weekly Vax data. Notice the timeframe of the most recent spike in Vax rates.




Kinda matches the recent spike in cases and deaths, eh?

I think you're reading that in reverse, Badge. The in the second graphic the bar graph is cumulative vaccinations, and the line is weekly cases. 

I don't see a "spike" in vax rates anywhere... It grew quickly once available and then leveled off.  

You are correct. Got cross-eyed. Anyway, Vax rates are back up here - a lot of them boosters.



Vax rates much higher than case rates. Between recovered cases and vax status, I think things are in good shape here.

Yeah, I think the vax rates are pretty exemplary. I looked up FL vax rates earlier today in relation to the rest of the US and Florida is 21st in the US, which isn't shabby. California is 16th and the statewide vax rate is a little under 2% higher. 

Which is why I don't understand how their death rate for the Delta surge is so massive. 

Texas is at 29th nationally and is 6.4% lower statewide vax rate than Florida, and their daily deaths peaked at similar numbers to Florida despite having about 50% higher population. 

Why are so many dying in Florida compared to CA or TX despite having a very respectable vaccine rate, and as you show, a VERY respectable vaccine rate amongst the elderly?

Yeah, I think the vax rates are pretty exemplary. I looked up FL vax rates earlier today in relation to the rest of the US and Florida is 21st in the US, which isn't shabby. California is 16th and the statewide vax rate is a little under 2% higher.

Which is why I don't understand how their death rate for the Delta surge is so massive.

Texas is at 29th nationally and is 6.4% lower statewide vax rate than Florida, and their daily deaths peaked at similar numbers to Florida despite having about 50% higher population.

Why are so many dying in Florida compared to CA or TX despite having a very respectable vaccine rate, and as you show, a VERY respectable vaccine rate amongst the elderly?

I feel like I already answered  this question above...

Or, maybe they're miscounting COVID deaths again.  Gotta watch them wiley number-crunchers.

I think people in Florida are pretty much just going about their daily lives at this point.

Same thing in Texas.  I spent last weekend at the State Fair for the TX-OU game.  Probably 250,000 people in and around the Cotton Bowl that day.  Zero distancing and not one mask in sight. 

This weekend I'll be spending Fri-Sun at the Circuit of the Americas with 300,000 of my closest friends.  I don't expect to see any distancing or masks there, either.

The vaxed have made their choices, the unvaxed have made their choices, and now the chips will fall where they may.

Almost two years into this, that's exactly what should be happening.