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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15736 on: October 05, 2021, 12:52:14 PM »
Well, and the other issue is, the entire point is NOT to eliminate infections.  It's to reduce the damage that COVID19 does to human beings.  93% effectiveness means that it IS significantly minimizing the damage done to humans.

As posted earlier on this thread (or the other one), estimates are that 75% of all flu cases are either asymptomatic or so mild they're never reported.

I think the public, and the mediots, and the government,  have become confused on what the goal should be.

The goal should NOT be, to eradicate the virus, to eliminate infection entirely.  That's unrealistic and actually it's completely impossible.

The goal SHOULD be, to reduce the effect of this virus on humans, to the point that it is no more dangerous or damaging, than other illnesses we see on a regular basis and accept as a base rate for continuing to live our lives normally-- like, for example, the flu.

How close to that level of tolerance/acceptance of damage, does the 93 % get us? That's the relevant question, when given this bit of data.
Your point is important, and valid. 

That said, the two are interrelated. 

Reducing cases reduces the potential for people to become hospitalized, which reduces the damage it does to human beings. So I see value to boosters if they reduce R0 by protecting more effectively against infection.

And it becomes a problem:

  • If you say it's only 50% effective after six months, the vaccine-hesitant are gonna say "oh, I get this shot and then I just need to keep getting them every six months? When does this end?"
  • If you say it's 93% effective after six months, those who have already had the shot say "oh, it still protects really well after infection? Then why do I need a booster?"

The message should address both groups head-on. The vaccine is effective and it remains effective over time at the most important metric--keeping people out of the hospital. The booster's goal, therefore, is to help keep the spread down and protect those who can't or won't get the vaccine, and help us all get back to normal again, which is what we want. And maybe, just maybe, the booster will show more staying power over time at preventing infection--it's too early to predict.  

The problem is that in that article from The Hill, it does neither. They're not very clear about numbers. They say it's 47% effective after six months, but 53% effective against Delta after four months, but 93% effective at preventing hospitalization at six months. As a reader I'm forced to assume that the 47% and 53% numbers are related to staving off infection. 

With confusing numbers thrown around, not defined, AND NO COHERENT MESSAGE EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS AND WHAT THEY MEAN, it's effing useless. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15737 on: October 05, 2021, 12:54:43 PM »
Well, and the other issue is, the entire point is NOT to eliminate infections.  It's to reduce the damage that COVID19 does to human beings.  93% effectiveness means that it IS significantly minimizing the damage done to humans.

As posted earlier on this thread (or the other one), estimates are that 75% of all flu cases are either asymptomatic or so mild they're never reported.

I think the public, and the mediots, and the government,  have become confused on what the goal should be.

The goal should NOT be, to eradicate the virus, to eliminate infection entirely.  That's unrealistic and actually it's completely impossible.

The goal SHOULD be, to reduce the effect of this virus on humans, to the point that it is no more dangerous or damaging, than other illnesses we see on a regular basis and accept as a base rate for continuing to live our lives normally-- like, for example, the flu.

How close to that level of tolerance/acceptance of damage, does the 93 % get us? That's the relevant question, when given this bit of data.
Bingo.      Thank you!
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15738 on: October 05, 2021, 12:55:00 PM »
I'd hate to be the one trying to explain all this to everyone amidst the massive disinformation out there, some of which comes from governments.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15739 on: October 05, 2021, 01:01:08 PM »
Your point is important, and valid.

That said, the two are interrelated.

Reducing cases reduces the potential for people to become hospitalized, which reduces the damage it does to human beings. So I see value to boosters if they reduce R0 by protecting more effectively against infection.

And it becomes a problem:

  • If you say it's only 50% effective after six months, the vaccine-hesitant are gonna say "oh, I get this shot and then I just need to keep getting them every six months? When does this end?"
  • If you say it's 93% effective after six months, those who have already had the shot say "oh, it still protects really well after infection? Then why do I need a booster?"

The message should address both groups head-on. The vaccine is effective and it remains effective over time at the most important metric--keeping people out of the hospital. The booster's goal, therefore, is to help keep the spread down and protect those who can't or won't get the vaccine, and help us all get back to normal again, which is what we want. And maybe, just maybe, the booster will show more staying power over time at preventing infection--it's too early to predict. 

The problem is that in that article from The Hill, it does neither. They're not very clear about numbers. They say it's 47% effective after six months, but 53% effective against Delta after four months, but 93% effective at preventing hospitalization at six months. As a reader I'm forced to assume that the 47% and 53% numbers are related to staving off infection.

With confusing numbers thrown around, not defined, AND NO COHERENT MESSAGE EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS AND WHAT THEY MEAN, it's effing useless.



It's even worse than useless, it becomes destructive.

I sincerely believe that our biggest problem right now, is that there is no goal.  There is no idea of what "managed" looks like.

There are a lot of people that still believe that the virus can be eliminated, and that nobody should even consider getting back to normal until that occurs.  They experience near-seizure-inducing panic at the sight of football stadiums full of people. They continue to refer to such events as "super-spreaders" even though there is no evidence of that-- in fact at this point, the evidence here in Austin at least, is that it hasn't impacted community case levels at all.

On the flipside, there are hoaxers and anti-vaxers and other various individualists that either don't believe it's an issue, or they don't believe there's anything that can or should be done to stop it. Messaging that "we're going to keep masking forever" is only going to make these people dig in their heels further.


With no goal, with no target, stated, both of these groups freely spin out of control and create more churn and divisiveness.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15740 on: October 05, 2021, 01:03:56 PM »
Goals:

1.  Limit hospitalizations to the point hospitals are not stressed by this, meaning maybe they have 2-5% beds with COVID.
2.  Reduce infection rate to the point this is akin to flu in most years, manageable but with some sick days out there.
3.  Stay on top of variants headed out way.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15741 on: October 05, 2021, 01:10:55 PM »
2021's most popular new Halloween decoration:



betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15742 on: October 05, 2021, 02:14:46 PM »
With no goal, with no target, stated, both of these groups freely spin out of control and create more churn and divisiveness.
That reminds me, I need to add one to this:

Goals:

1.  Limit hospitalizations to the point hospitals are not stressed by this, meaning maybe they have 2-5% beds with COVID.
2.  Reduce infection rate to the point this is akin to flu in most years, manageable but with some sick days out there.
3.  Stay on top of variants headed out way.
4. Burn social media to the ground.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15743 on: October 05, 2021, 02:20:25 PM »
I wish natural infection survivors would come up more, in general. We have almost 45 Million of those here in the USA - that we KNOW of. It's far more than that number, regardless.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15744 on: October 05, 2021, 02:28:37 PM »
I wish natural infection survivors would come up more, in general. We have almost 45 Million of those here in the USA - that we KNOW of. It's far more than that number, regardless.
It doesn’t just not “ come up”.  it is taboo.  

why is it that Florida’s rapidly declining infection rate, reversing mask mandates and booming economy are no longer center stage?
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15745 on: October 05, 2021, 02:35:15 PM »
It's the same with India, Big News when surging, completely not news when the surge disappeared.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15746 on: October 05, 2021, 02:45:02 PM »
It doesn’t just not “ come up”.  it is taboo. 

why is it that Florida’s rapidly declining infection rate, reversing mask mandates and booming economy are no longer center stage?
Probably because while other states were doing well containing Delta, Florida has jumped to be the 3rd highest cases/1M rate in the US and 9th highest deaths/1M rate in the US...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's easy to point to a rapidly declining infection rate when your state had even more infections and deaths WITH the vaccine during the third [Delta] wave than you had in either of the previous waves...

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15747 on: October 05, 2021, 02:45:18 PM »
Probably because while other states were doing well containing Delta, Florida has jumped to be the 3rd highest cases/1M rate in the US and 9th highest deaths/1M rate in the US...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's easy to point to a rapidly declining infection rate when your state had even more infections and deaths WITH the vaccine during the third [Delta] wave than you had in either of the previous waves... It's easy to decline from such high numbers.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15748 on: October 05, 2021, 03:08:51 PM »
That reminds me, I need to add one to this:
4. Burn social media to the ground.
Man with the Facebook and Instagram outage yesterday, I had high hopes that we were on our way!

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #15749 on: October 05, 2021, 03:18:07 PM »
4. Burn social media to the ground.
Sans this place,except for maybe a thread or two
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

 

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