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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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utee94 · « **Reply #15358 on:** September 01, 2021, 01:13:27 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2021, 12:39:23 PM

Court overturned this. Districts in FL can mandate away.

Same here, the mask mandates are legal in Texas as well, and every urban school district has them now. Most rural school districts do not.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #15359 on:** September 01, 2021, 01:19:19 PM »

Ahh. In that case any differences in numbers between those three states are unlikely to be school/mask-related.

utee94 · « **Reply #15360 on:** September 01, 2021, 01:23:27 PM »

We're seeing more significant spread within schools this year compared to last, despite the mask mandates. So is it:

1) Delta variant just more transmissible?
2) No online options, 100% in-person school compared to the 60-90% we saw last year, so there's less ability to distance within the school buildings?
3) Generally less discipline with behaviors like distancing and masking despite mandates, due to COVID fatigue?
4) Some combination of all of the above
5) Something else entirely?

My best guess right now is that it's some combination of all of them, and probably some things I didn't list.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #15361 on:** September 01, 2021, 01:48:23 PM »

My guess is similar to yours; it's a combination of many factors, and the increased transmissibility of Delta is a big one, coupled with low vaccine rates amongst the kids who are eligible and zero vaccination for anyone under 12.

utee94 · « **Reply #15362 on:** September 01, 2021, 02:17:13 PM »

I didn't factor in vaccine rates as a factor this year comparing to last year, since vaccines were unavailable to all cohorts last year.

If vaccines are making a positive impression on the numbers, then I'd expect to see less spread in the 12+ groupings. But here, at least right now, the spread in that population is similar to Under12.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #15363 on:** September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM »

In AZ, mask-mandated schools have half the cases of non-mandated schools in children under 12.

Kids get the Delta variant and it's only a matter of time before the deaths begin. I know that sounds like easy-to-dismiss dramatics, but it's also a fact.

No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open. I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #15364 on:** September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on September 01, 2021, 02:17:13 PM

I didn't factor in vaccine rates as a factor this year comparing to last year, since vaccines were unavailable to all cohorts last year.

If vaccines are making a positive impression on the numbers, then I'd expect to see less spread in the 12+ groupings. But here, at least right now, the spread in that population is similar to Under12.

To me the question is what percentage of that 12-17 age group are vaccinated?

Here in CA, in the 18-49 age group we have ~64% fully vaccinated and an additional ~10% partially. But from 12-17, it's only ~49% fully vaccinated and an additional 11% partially.

I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

It basically calls out all <18 percentage, which is annoying because anyone under 12 doesn't qualify. But here are the numbers:

California 17.1% fully vaccinated, 22.1% at least one dose
Florida 12.4% fully vaccinated, 17.7% at least one dose
Texas 14.5% fully vaccinated, 18.3% at least one dose

So playing fast and loose with the math, let's take California at 48.8% fully vaccinated from 12-17 years of age, and 17.1% fully vaccinated from 0-17 years of age, and assume a constant multiplier of 2.85x, meaning 12-17 years of age is ~35% of the population from 0-17 years of age.

That would give Florida a 35.3% fully vaccinated rate 12-17 years of age, and Texas a 41.3% fully vaccinated rate.

That's nowhere near herd immunity within that cohort, whether we're looking at California, Florida, or Texas.

As for relative spread between the 0-11 and the 12-17 groupings, I'd think there are other factors than just vacc rates too... 12-17 usually will have more autonomy, more social interaction outside of school with friends, less parental oversight, etc... That may offset what would otherwise be a lower spread due to the effect of a 1/3 to 1/2 population vaccination rate in that age range...

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #15365 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:01:46 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM

In AZ, mask-mandated schools have half the cases of non-mandated schools in children under 12.

Kids get the Delta variant and it's only a matter of time before the deaths begin. I know that sounds like easy-to-dismiss dramatics, but it's also a fact.

No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open. I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children.

OAM, I already covered this. For now, what we're seeing is death numbers in the 0-17 years of age cohort over now ~18 months that are below that of the seasonal flu (6 month time scale). We don't ask students to mask, distance learn, socially distance, and as adults, dramatically remake our economic way of life for the flu.

I'll admit that part of the reason those numbers are as low as they are is partially BECAUSE we've been masking, distancing, etc. But it's also true that as infectious diseases go, children are not heavily affected by COVID. Even with Delta.

So if the answer for "acceptable number of dead children" is supposed to be zero, then I guess we should go back to distance learning forever, because they might get the flu at school. Why even allow them into schools with masks and social distancing?! It's unsafe!!!

But as I covered before, EVERYTHING in life is a balancing test. We say that in-person learning is important to student development. I'm not going to pick "masking in school" as the hill to die on, but important social development occurs from kids being together, interacting, and yes, seeing each others' faces. I don't think it's such a terrible thing to wear the mask at least until the Delta wave passes, but at the same time I'm not going to ask kids to mask in school forever because of the flu, either.

You act like we're all in favor of dead kids because we won't go full bore with every restriction that's available. Yet you won't go with every restriction available, unless you want to go to distance learning forever, or make kids in schools wear masks forever, because of the flu--because the flu kills kids too.

When push comes to shove, I don't think your answer is "zero dead kids is the only acceptable answer" either.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #15366 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:19:41 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 01, 2021, 02:50:15 PM

No one ever gave me the acceptable number of deaths in adults to keep things open. I doubt any of you will give me the acceptable number of dead children.

Beta gave a better response than I could ever do. We as humans accept risks in order to live reasonable lives.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #15367 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:24:56 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM

I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

Sure you can.

utee94 · « **Reply #15368 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:35:29 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 01, 2021, 02:50:56 PM

To me the question is what percentage of that 12-17 age group are vaccinated?

Here in CA, in the 18-49 age group we have ~64% fully vaccinated and an additional ~10% partially. But from 12-17, it's only ~49% fully vaccinated and an additional 11% partially.

I'm not sure how CA compares to other states--I can't easily find the age 12-17 vaccination rate for Texas or Florida, but I was able to find this: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

It basically calls out all <18 percentage, which is annoying because anyone under 12 doesn't qualify. But here are the numbers:

California 17.1% fully vaccinated, 22.1% at least one dose
Florida 12.4% fully vaccinated, 17.7% at least one dose
Texas 14.5% fully vaccinated, 18.3% at least one dose

So playing fast and loose with the math, let's take California at 48.8% fully vaccinated from 12-17 years of age, and 17.1% fully vaccinated from 0-17 years of age, and assume a constant multiplier of 2.85x, meaning 12-17 years of age is ~35% of the population from 0-17 years of age.

That would give Florida a 35.3% fully vaccinated rate 12-17 years of age, and Texas a 41.3% fully vaccinated rate.

That's nowhere near herd immunity within that cohort, whether we're looking at California, Florida, or Texas.

As for relative spread between the 0-11 and the 12-17 groupings, I'd think there are other factors than just vacc rates too... 12-17 usually will have more autonomy, more social interaction outside of school with friends, less parental oversight, etc... That may offset what would otherwise be a lower spread due to the effect of a 1/3 to 1/2 population vaccination rate in that age range...

Yes, this was exactly what I've been speculating, to account for the seeming lack of differentiation between those two cohorts in raw cases, despite the partial vaccination of the older group.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #15369 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:39:02 PM »

Thanks Badge. It's a little off since it's 12-19 rather than 12-17, but that's close enough for gov't work lol ;-)

I wonder how that squares with the mayo clinic numbers... If you take the "at least one dose" number of 17.7% and a rough guess at a 2.85x multiplier, it gets you to 50.5%. The lower "fully vaccinated" percentage would still only be a little over 35%...

Either way, good to see that the numbers are higher than I suggested.

Gigem · « **Reply #15370 on:** September 01, 2021, 03:58:13 PM »

A guy here at work died from COVID last week. I don't particularly know him but he was from the same country village as me and a little older. We exchanged emails intermittently when I was doing projects in his area. He was 52 FWIW.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #15371 on:** September 01, 2021, 04:22:37 PM »

Okay, flu deaths plus what?

Meh, I just hate that respsonible, vaccinated parents' kids are as unvaccinated as other people's.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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OrangeAfroMan

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betarhoalphadelta

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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Gigem

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OrangeAfroMan

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