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the number was increased on the advice of Peruvian and international experts.



Oh really.

For anyone who follows the case and death totals closely, this week the globally reported deaths total jumped from roughly 3.6M to 3.7M in one day. That's when I noticed Peru's death total upped to over 180k, moving Peru to 5th in terms of deaths. Noticeably, Peru's Deaths/1M rate soared to over 5k, by far the highest in the world:

nothing to be proud of
but, follow the $$$$

Worse. 

A little over a year ago, we were talking about 100-250K deaths as something pretty good. We're at over 600K. 

Remember, that was considered "best case" from the Imperial College of London report that was saying the US would have 2.2M deaths if we did nothing.

Everyone said that prediction was horrible, and completely wrong... But remember, they had three scenarios:

• Do nothing (including everyone acting as if there was no pandemic): 2.2M deaths over 2 years. 
• Non-draconian mitigation methods: 1.1M deaths over 2 years
• Draconian mitigation methods: 100-250K deaths over 2 years

Note: the "over 2 years" is important. I think that study came out March or maybe early April 2020. 

Meaning we're a little over halfway through those two years, and with 600K deaths, we're a little over halfway to 1.1M... But we have the vaccine now [which wasn't contemplated in their analysis].

Sans-vaccine, does anyone doubt we would have ended up at least in the 1M range over the span of two years?

Without the vaccine, I don't think it would have been 2M within 2 years, although it might have hit there eventually given area under the curve. 

And honestly I don't know that it would have been 2M anyway.

I believe that was based on over 200M Americans getting the virus over that time, and thus slightly above 1% IFR. Based on estimates of unreported infections to confirmed cases, that seems to be a high assumption for IFR. I think it's probably a little above half that, maybe in the 0.5-0.6% range.

Maybe if all 330M residents of the United States got it, at an IFR close to 0.6%, you'd approach 2M, but herd immunity might stop the spread before everyone got it.

I didn't really know what to expect.

I certainly hoped it wouldn't turn out this bad.

It turned out worse than I expected.

Isn't it nice to get to page 1000 of this thread and confidently declare Covid in America over? This past weekend I ran all around Southern California and Arizona and hardly anybody save for cashiers and a few waitresses were wearing masks. It's over.

Where in SoCal? 

Here in Orange County, which hasn't exactly been a bastion of COVID compliance, and I have still seen pretty good masking. We're a week out from COVID restrictions statewide being lifted.

Florida has stopped reporting tracking data.

I wonder why