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Something has killed half a million Americans over the past 12 months more than expected, and the expected number is very predictable.

I'm talking about total deaths due to all causes.  It was 2.85 million in 2019, so a half a million increase is clearly noticeable.  The death toll goes up a bit each year very predictably.  When we get the figures for April to April, they will be close to 3.4 million, very much an outlier.  

but the expected number killed by the flu is pretty predictable.  That number is much different

the expected number killed in traffic accidents is predictable, but I've heard that number is up although number of miles driven is way down.

I'm talking about total deaths due to all causes.  It was 2.85 million in 2019, so a half a million increase is clearly noticeable.  The death toll goes up a bit each year very predictably.  When we get the figures for April to April, they will be close to 3.4 million, very much an outlier. 

Also note that April to April will include almost no flu deaths, instead of somewhere around 35K per flu season, because we stopped the flu from even being a problem this year with the COVID protocols...

So maybe auto fatalities are up while flu is down... Wouldn't surprise me much if the extra non-COVID deaths due to our changed lifestyles somewhat balances the non-COVID people who didn't die that might have--due to our changed lifestyles.

Either way, if we're working around the numbers here, 0.15% of our actual population is 492K. So even if EVERY person in the US had the virus, which is implausible, you'd have to START by claiming that COVID deaths are overcounted by 70K. 

If you wanted to claim that not everyone in the US has had the virus, to reach that 0.15% number means the COVID overcounting factor must be significantly higher. But eventually then you have to explain all of those as excess deaths due to other [heretofore unknown] causes. 

The number just doesn't make sense.

The possibility that Covid deaths are over counted is real.

Sure. By how much?

Again, you have to get from 569K to 492K, you're already at 15.6% overcount. Maybe that's plausible, as I understand the excess death numbers are somewhat likely to end up around ~500K rather than 569K... But it still makes the 0.15% IFR implausible, because that assumes that everyone in the entire country has been infected with COVID, and I don't even come close to believing that.

Let's say we assume a number on the high end of possibilities, like 6x actual infections to official confirmed cases. That gets you to 190M actual people infected. I think that number is high, you may think it's plausible. 

But for there to be an 0.15% IFR with 190M infections, that means that we've double-counted COVID deaths. It means that instead of 569K deaths, there were really only 285K deaths. I don't think we've come anywhere NEAR double-counting, and a number like 285K means we have to come up with explanations for why we're somewhere in the ~500K excess death range... Where did those extra 200K+ deaths come from, if not from COVID?

So with all of this, we have to throw out a number. I'm saying the number that screws all of these calculations is 0.15% IFR, so that number is the one I am most suspicious of. 

kinda hard to dispute taking the total non covid deaths in the past and comparing it to total deaths this 12 months

it is in the ballpark of the covid number used so that really disproves the .15% number

It can't be emphasized enough that depicting the results of Covid deaths is best accomplished through looking at this past calendar year's Excess Death numbers. Excess death numbers don't pinpoint exact numbers for Covid deaths, but rather they demonstrate that since entering the scene Covid undeniably influenced overall deaths higher.

Any raw Covid death total presented as an isolated number (currently around 570K reported U.S. deaths) will remain assailable due to differences of reporting, changes in reporting, general unknowns involving something as new to the scene as Covid, and differences as to what counts as a Covid death.

Iowa removed age and co-morbidity restrictions to the vaccine on April 5. I expected difficulty getting an appointment, but my wife and I already obtained an appointment for April 7 for the Pfizer vaccine. One of my colleagues provided me with an app on my phone to locate the nearest sources of vaccine appointments by zip code. The app is only for Iowa. I have to travel 25 miles one-way as our county is short on vaccine, but that amount of travel is no problem.

The end of elevated risk is now in sight.

(FearlessF, if you are looking for a vaccine and want the app, PM me with your cell phone #.)

FF got his yesterday. 

Right, but a guy has a heart attack and dies. He tests positive for Covid.

The record says he died from Covid.

True, but how often is something like this REALLY happening?

I also believe a portion of the excess deaths, especially those at the beginning of the pandemic, are potentially related to people delaying medical care for their existing health problems, and/or not being able to get into a medical treatment facility, and dying a result of their existing conditions.

But I don't think THAT's really all that large of a number, either.