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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13258 on: April 05, 2021, 01:56:23 PM »
I signed up for my first Pfizer shot.  Tomorrow after work at my pharmacy.

I could get in this afternoon, but I'm going to the golf course, instead.  75 and sunny!
I felt well enough yesterday after my shot to take my son to the range. 

Today my arm is definitely more sore than it was yesterday. Not enough that it'd stop me from swinging the club if I had occasion to do so today. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13259 on: April 05, 2021, 03:06:35 PM »
I had a huge fire drill at work and had to engage in some executive daycare, when I was supposed to be getting my first shot last week.

Now I have to get back in line and see if I can get an appointment nearby, again.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13260 on: April 05, 2021, 03:18:06 PM »
you stated that you preferred to wait a while anyway

it's all good
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13261 on: April 05, 2021, 03:24:20 PM »
you stated that you preferred to wait a while anyway

it's all good
Sure.  It's been in reasonably widespread distribution for several months now, I'm satisfied with the safety of it.

I'll get it when it's readily available.  The appointment last week was very convenient to me, but I also sort of lucked into it, as I happened to be on the city's website just as they released about 7,000 new appointments.

Don't know if I'll get lucky again, or have to wait a while.

I'm starting to see some folks in the media gnashing teeth that not enough people are signing up for the vaccine, they think we're already getting to the point where the non-vaxxers or anti-vaxxers are the last groups.  I'm certainly not seeing that in Austin, though.  Not an appointment to be had in this city, at the current time.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13262 on: April 05, 2021, 03:27:42 PM »
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13263 on: April 05, 2021, 04:42:14 PM »
Oh hey, you guys heard about the microchip shortages affecting almost all consumer electronics plus automobiles and pretty much everything else on the planet?

Remember when I told you back in August that the global supply chains for almost all manufactured goods were in complete disarray and we'd start to see it in Q1 but it would get far worse in Q2?

Yeah... 

CatsbyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13264 on: April 05, 2021, 06:35:10 PM »
Oh hey, you guys heard about the microchip shortages affecting almost all consumer electronics plus automobiles and pretty much everything else on the planet?

Remember when I told you back in August that the global supply chains for almost all manufactured goods were in complete disarray and we'd start to see it in Q1 but it would get far worse in Q2?

Yeah...


Supply Chains were in disarray BEFORE the pandemic? Is this a problem of they were already too strained to begin with? To answer my own question, last week in Long Beach I saw close to 40 container ships lined up to access the Port of LA. We've crammed our global supply chain with too much crap to begin with.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13265 on: April 05, 2021, 06:47:58 PM »

Supply Chains were in disarray BEFORE the pandemic? Is this a problem of they were already too strained to begin with? To answer my own question, last week in Long Beach I saw close to 40 container ships lined up to access the Port of LA. We've crammed our global supply chain with too much crap to begin with.
Pandemic effectively started for the world in Feb/Mar (earlier in China of course), so this was several months in.

I can echo 94 on this one... There are shortages all over the place on all sorts of components. 

It's not even all virus-related. The weather in Texas caused Samsung to stop production at one of their SSD controller fabs. 

I can't speak to anything beyond the electronics industry, but I can say that I absolutely see what 94's talking about.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13266 on: April 05, 2021, 07:14:56 PM »
So many items today need chips the demand may simply have outrun supply of the types needed.

The pandemic didn't help obviously, but this issue appears to have existed previous to that.

How many ICs are in the average car today?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13267 on: April 05, 2021, 07:38:11 PM »
So many items today need chips the demand may simply have outrun supply of the types needed.

The pandemic didn't help obviously, but this issue appears to have existed previous to that.

How many ICs are in the average car today?
Like a lot of things, it's complicated. Sort of a perfect storm and COVID was the icing on the cake. 

Part of it had to do with some dude who said trade wars were good, and easy to win. Same dude (and admin) put a bunch of Chinese companies onto the "entity list" making them really hard to do business with. Including the Chinese fabs that were producing a lot of stuff. So one of the pressure relief valves that could have offset this was effectively closed.

Another part of it has to do with fabless semiconductor companies contracting out to TSMC [and others], and an increasing number of companies who used to fab their own stuff going that route. Companies like Apple moved away from Intel to in-house designs, but don't want to actually produce their own chips, so they need to contract production out to a fab. 

Add that to the fact that IC production, when everything is going well, is a many-month process from wafer to finished good. I think 94 spent time actually involved in wafer processing from his posts, so he knows this better than I do, but you don't order this stuff on a Monday and you'll get it on Friday. You have to have your demand planning 12-18 months in advance. 

Then you put in an external shock like COVID... Where any of the companies upstream of you in the supply chain might have a 1-2 week disruption at any time, and you can't predict when or who might have it, and suddenly things start going awry. 

I believe, as someone actually in the industry, that COVID was the proximate cause, not just demand simply outrunning supply. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13268 on: April 05, 2021, 07:50:04 PM »
At this point, I pretty much accept whatever beta posts.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13269 on: April 05, 2021, 08:00:19 PM »
At this point, I pretty much accept whatever beta posts.
On this one 94 is probably closer to it than I am, both with his job function and his previous semi experience...

But I don't think I embarrassed myself.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13270 on: April 05, 2021, 08:06:10 PM »
Like a lot of things, it's complicated. Sort of a perfect storm and COVID was the icing on the cake.

Part of it had to do with some dude who said trade wars were good, and easy to win. Same dude (and admin) put a bunch of Chinese companies onto the "entity list" making them really hard to do business with. Including the Chinese fabs that were producing a lot of stuff. So one of the pressure relief valves that could have offset this was effectively closed.

Another part of it has to do with fabless semiconductor companies contracting out to TSMC [and others], and an increasing number of companies who used to fab their own stuff going that route. Companies like Apple moved away from Intel to in-house designs, but don't want to actually produce their own chips, so they need to contract production out to a fab.

Add that to the fact that IC production, when everything is going well, is a many-month process from wafer to finished good. I think 94 spent time actually involved in wafer processing from his posts, so he knows this better than I do, but you don't order this stuff on a Monday and you'll get it on Friday. You have to have your demand planning 12-18 months in advance.

Then you put in an external shock like COVID... Where any of the companies upstream of you in the supply chain might have a 1-2 week disruption at any time, and you can't predict when or who might have it, and suddenly things start going awry.

I believe, as someone actually in the industry, that COVID was the proximate cause, not just demand simply outrunning supply.

Absolutely.  The large number of microchips in all electronics these days, was already comprehended into the global forecasts, in most cases several years ago.  I have to plan my demand 18-24 months out, and I have to send prelim signals for capacity planning purposes up to 36 months out.

But when entire factories in China shut down for months and months at a time, there's no way for the supply chain to keep up with the demand, even when they knew about that demand years ago.

And normally, even when there's an unexpected surge in demand, the Chinese subtier component factories can generally spin up new lines within 6-9 months to handle it, as long as it's incremental demand on an existing design and not an entirely new one.  Because normally their labor supply can instantaneously expand to meet new demand. and then it's just a matter of additional tooling and some training.  But that's not happening right now, for reasons that no one over there is allowed to explain.

longhorn320

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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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