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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10486 on: November 10, 2020, 03:27:02 PM »
Hospitalizations trending down in Florida, even as cases trend up. Deaths are dropping down nicely too.
Cases were trending down from mid-July until early October.

Deaths lag, and they were trending down from say early- to mid-Aug until now. 

The case rise in Florida so far hasn't been a "spike", it's just starting to slowly trend up. But it's definitely trending up.

So... Get back to me in 2 weeks and let me know what's trending in hospitalizations and deaths.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10487 on: November 10, 2020, 03:31:07 PM »
See attached picture.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10488 on: November 10, 2020, 03:38:25 PM »
This is why it's worse than ever.  People aren't even being as careful as they were in April/May.  I'm not sure I understand why it's so hard to be prudent for more than 5 minutes. 
We're a social species. We have family. We have friends. Going 6-7 or more months without having that contact is emotionally difficult. And while Zoom calls and texts/phone is one thing, they're not really a substitute for actual human contact. 

All the simple stuff about physical distancing, wearing your masks, etc when out in public is EASY. Nobody IMHO is really all that worried about mask fatigue. It's not hard, just annoying. 

But that lack of seeing family and friends is something people are having trouble with, and so they're starting to do that. And as has been pointed out, a lot of the spread is from small gatherings, from family/friends rather than "the public". And for many, there are things like weddings, births, funerals, major birthdays, etc, and people won't [or can't] put those major life events on hold forever, so people consider it important enough to attend despite the risk. 

I doubt these gatherings were all that big of a deal during the summer BBQ holiday season, because I'm sure a lot of those gatherings were outside, in the sunlight. Coming up here in a few weeks is going to be the big one, and late December there will be another, because there will be large family get-togethers in cold climates and inside. 

People are willing to wear their mask to the grocery store to buy the turkey, but they're not willing to not see their family to celebrate Thanksgiving.  


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10489 on: November 10, 2020, 03:41:19 PM »
Florida death information is attached.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10490 on: November 10, 2020, 03:50:04 PM »
Understood, Badge. 

My prediction--which I hope will be wrong--is that the hospitalization and deaths will curve back up with cases. 

Your first photo showed ED visits with COVID-like illness to be flat to a very miniscule rise. 

I think your second photo may be, much like the CDC, not quite as up to date as some of the other trackers. 

For example, if you compare the numbers in your graph to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

They look rather similar, up until the last two weeks. If they're waiting for confirmed coroner's reports before attributing the deaths, they may not be catching everything.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10491 on: November 10, 2020, 04:00:14 PM »
We're a social species. We have family. We have friends. Going 6-7 or more months without having that contact is emotionally difficult. And while Zoom calls and texts/phone is one thing, they're not really a substitute for actual human contact.

All the simple stuff about physical distancing, wearing your masks, etc when out in public is EASY. Nobody IMHO is really all that worried about mask fatigue. It's not hard, just annoying.

But that lack of seeing family and friends is something people are having trouble with, and so they're starting to do that. And as has been pointed out, a lot of the spread is from small gatherings, from family/friends rather than "the public". And for many, there are things like weddings, births, funerals, major birthdays, etc, and people won't [or can't] put those major life events on hold forever, so people consider it important enough to attend despite the risk.

I doubt these gatherings were all that big of a deal during the summer BBQ holiday season, because I'm sure a lot of those gatherings were outside, in the sunlight. Coming up here in a few weeks is going to be the big one, and late December there will be another, because there will be large family get-togethers in cold climates and inside.

People are willing to wear their mask to the grocery store to buy the turkey, but they're not willing to not see their family to celebrate Thanksgiving. 



Exactly, all of this.  Quarantining/lockdowns/social avoidance simply aren't a sustainable solution.  I'm actually surprised that 8-9 months into this, there are still a lot of people staying pretty strict about it.

But it was never a solution that could last forever, or even a full year.  It's just not realistic. Which is why we're seeing, what we're seeing.

The most at-risk people need to stay in strict quarantine-- unless they're tired of it, which is understandable.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10492 on: November 10, 2020, 04:00:41 PM »
Supposedly Orange County might end up back in the most restrictive tier by potentially next week, and after 2 weeks there could go back to shutting down the schools.

Yet so far the schools, to my knowledge, haven't even been vectors of spread. One of our school districts has a tracker and they've got over 18,000 students and staff who are doing in-person learning across the entire district. There have only been 28 cases. 

Kids need school. Parents need their kids to be in school. If this was causing huge hot spots of virus, I'd understand it. But there's no evidence of that here.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10493 on: November 10, 2020, 04:01:59 PM »
Supposedly Orange County might end up back in the most restrictive tier by potentially next week, and after 2 weeks there could go back to shutting down the schools.

Yet so far the schools, to my knowledge, haven't even been vectors of spread. One of our school districts has a tracker and they've got over 18,000 students and staff who are doing in-person learning across the entire district. There have only been 28 cases.

Kids need school. Parents need their kids to be in school. If this was causing huge hot spots of virus, I'd understand it. But there's no evidence of that here.


None here either.  Or most other places on the planet.  French kids are still going to school despite their soaring cases.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10494 on: November 10, 2020, 04:06:16 PM »
Understood, Badge.

My prediction--which I hope will be wrong--is that the hospitalization and deaths will curve back up with cases.

Your first photo showed ED visits with COVID-like illness to be flat to a very miniscule rise.

I think your second photo may be, much like the CDC, not quite as up to date as some of the other trackers.

For example, if you compare the numbers in your graph to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

They look rather similar, up until the last two weeks. If they're waiting for confirmed coroner's reports before attributing the deaths, they may not be catching everything.
That is correct, but going back a while things stayed flat even with the increased cases. And I'm looking at the age groupings and mortality rates too. Most of the new cases are in younger people. I think what I'm getting at is that most of the people who were going to die from this, may have died already. At least that is my hope.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10495 on: November 10, 2020, 05:07:44 PM »
Gov. Kim Reynolds issues mask mandate for gatherings above 25 people indoors, 100 outdoors

According to an update from the Iowa Supreme Court, all jury trials that do not have a jury sworn in by November 16 and are already scheduled, will be suspended until after February 1, 2021.

4,439  new infections over the last 24-hours, another record-breaking number for new infections in the state.

There are currently 1,135 people hospitalized due to coronavirus in the state, up by 101 people since yesterday.

As of now, 1,049,806 individuals in Iowa have been tested for COVID infection.  total population 3.155 million
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10496 on: November 10, 2020, 08:11:03 PM »
With support from the Office of Research and Economic Development’s COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant Program, Nebraska's Shi-Hua Xiang is in the early stages of developing a bacterial delivery system for a COVID-19 vaccine that would be delivered directly to the respiratory tract as a nasal spray.

His approach has the potential to involve a little less pain and anxiety, enhanced immunity against COVID-19 and a smaller price tag. ›› http://ow.ly/276h50Cbk6B

Nasal spray could mean needle-free COVID-19 vaccine

https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/nasal-spray-could-mean-needle-free-covid-19-vaccine/
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10497 on: November 11, 2020, 03:56:15 AM »
France MAY (emphasis) have peaked already and started down.  It's too early of course to say they have.

That would be interesting if this continues and isn't a temporary blip.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10498 on: November 11, 2020, 08:25:31 AM »
France MAY (emphasis) have peaked already and started down.  It's too early of course to say they have.

That would be interesting if this continues and isn't a temporary blip.


What makes you write this? How are deaths doing there and the rest of Europe?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10499 on: November 11, 2020, 11:44:28 AM »
What makes you write this? How are deaths doing there and the rest of Europe?
I'm looking at newly reported cases, as deaths is a lag.  France reported 22 K new cases yesterday, which is well off recent 50-70K cites.

I've seen several articles that hospital usage in a lot of places is maxxed out and they are shipping patients to other locations.

 

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