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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9926 on: October 28, 2020, 04:38:19 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 04:33:11 PM
Obviously we're talking complete conjecture here about how it might happen. My only point is that it is not a foregone conclusion that mutation will make it easier to deal with. It could make it harder, potentially MUCH harder. It's random chance.

But yes, one would assume [a dangerous word] that if the virus got much more severe, there would be a lot fewer asymptomatic cases. Logically you'd think symptoms would come on more quickly and more severely, reducing the ability to transmit the virus because you would know you have it.

Nature doesn't always follow our logical rules, though...

I don't agree that it's random chance.  Viruses mutate and evolve in pretty predictable ways.  There's a reason they tend to mutate toward the weaker and less deadly, otherwise they choke themselves out.  Arguably the Spanish Flu did exactly that.

But now I'm picking nits, which is what engineers tend to do, especially with one another.  I'd say you and I are probably about 95% agreed on most of this stuff. :)
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9927 on: October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM »
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9928 on: October 28, 2020, 04:41:28 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.
Yeah I'm not certain I believe there is ZERO spread among the asymptomatic.  But, FF's doc isn't the only one I've heard of that has said that.  

(And no I'm not talking about doctors that believe demons impregnate women or whatever :) ) 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9929 on: October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 04:38:54 PM
Could be harder for them to spread, without a cough/sneeze, etc. But I don't think it's 100 percent that they are not spreading.

I would agree with this, less likely to spread, but people still cough/sneeze/ talk into your face, etc.

The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9930 on: October 28, 2020, 04:42:21 PM »
They have a lot of 5G stuff going up around me, maybe that is the cause.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9931 on: October 28, 2020, 04:43:09 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM
I would agree with this, less likely to spread, but people still cough/sneeze/ talk into your face, etc.

The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people. 

This.  And, also, from symptomatic people that are just assholes and go out while they're sick, anyway...
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9932 on: October 28, 2020, 04:48:30 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:34:02 PM
Nobody was contracting HIV by breathing contaminated air for 15 minutes or getting coughed on.  I don't think it's very representative or worthwhile as a comparison to the airborne viruses.
It's worthwhile as it relates to viruses burning themselves out because of the severity of the virus. 

Ebola was brought up, but ebola doesn't spread via airborne transmission either. It's via fluids.

Where the comparison with HIV breaks down most directly is because of the way HIV kills. HIV doesn't kill you. It destroys your immune system so you end up succumbing to some other illness or combination thereof. Whereas COVID is a respiratory illness and it is its direct respiratory effects that kill you. 

IMHO the transmission method is irrelevant to the latency of the infection progressing. If HIV had been airborne like COVID, it would have nearly wiped out humanity because 99% of the world would have been infected it before anyone even knew something was happening, and then suddenly people would be dying in droves. We were lucky that it wasn't airborne. As a sexually transmitted disease, the rate of spread was naturally MUCH slower.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9933 on: October 28, 2020, 04:50:16 PM »
I thought most COVID deaths were pneumonia (technically).  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9934 on: October 28, 2020, 04:50:53 PM »
And yeah, airborne spread of a highly lethal virus that had a latency period would ....
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9935 on: October 28, 2020, 04:52:56 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 04:48:30 PM
It's worthwhile as it relates to viruses burning themselves out because of the severity of the virus.

Ebola was brought up, but ebola doesn't spread via airborne transmission either. It's via fluids.

Where the comparison with HIV breaks down most directly is because of the way HIV kills. HIV doesn't kill you. It destroys your immune system so you end up succumbing to some other illness or combination thereof. Whereas COVID is a respiratory illness and it is its direct respiratory effects that kill you.

IMHO the transmission method is irrelevant to the latency of the infection progressing. If HIV had been airborne like COVID, it would have nearly wiped out humanity because 99% of the world would have been infected it before anyone even knew something was happening, and then suddenly people would be dying in droves. We were lucky that it wasn't airborne. As a sexually transmitted disease, the rate of spread was naturally MUCH slower.

But this is exactly my point, as to why I don't believe it's an appropriate or instructive comparison.  We've never seen an airborne virus anything like that.  

(And hopefully never will)
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9936 on: October 28, 2020, 04:55:03 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:41:46 PM
The whole thing about masks is to prevent/reduce this from asymptomatic people. 
we see how well this is working worldwide
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9937 on: October 28, 2020, 04:55:26 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
This.  And, also, from symptomatic people that are just assholes and go out while they're sick, anyway...
BINGO!!!!
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9938 on: October 28, 2020, 04:55:36 PM »
If we had the Spanish flu event today, we'd be looking at 700,000 million deaths globally, presuming medical treatment is not more effective.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9939 on: October 28, 2020, 04:56:10 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:55:03 PM
we see how well this is working worldwide
It may have worked in Asia pretty well, and we don't know how bad things would be without masks.
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